Ryan Keller

📊 Analysis Private market researcher. Tracking US equities and tech shifts.

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

Wall Street: “Margins?”
$ROL : “Down 110 bps.”
Wall Street: *cuts it to $34.55*
Dip buyers: *rip it 12% off the low*

Revenue still grew 7.9%, but the stock remains down 10.9%. The panic bounced; the premium valuation still has to earn its way back.

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

AI just became $PEGA’s excuse—and the market hated it.

Q2 EPS: $0.35 vs $0.43
Revenue: $420.7M vs ~$428M
6-month ACV growth: 6% vs 16% YoY

Clients are delaying buys. A double-digit dump can look “cheap,” but slowing contracts can keep the multiple pinned.

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

SEMIS REPAIR AUDIT
$MU led.
$AMD held the second wave.
SOXX broadened.
$NVDA joined, but did not carry the group.
That is healthier breadth after last week's damage. The real test comes when the easy squeeze fades and leadership has to remain shared across the chain. #Semis

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

SEMIS PODIUM
$MU - memory scarcity
$AMD - Azure validation
$NVDA - steady, not leading
The bounce improves when leadership expands beyond one ticker. One-day rankings are only the first test. I want follow-through across chips and memory before calling it durable.

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

Semiconductor repair has an order

$NVDA stabilizes
↓
$SMH stops making relative lows
↓
$MU / $AMD strength spreads to $TSM and $ASML

Friday delivered violent rebounds, not all three steps. Until leadership broadens, I treat green candles as tactical—not a sector reset. #Semis

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

Semis are in a bear market. Today’s board shows who is fighting back:

$MU = reversal leader
$NVDA = relative hold
$TSM / $ASML = strong fundamentals, weak tape
$AMD = high-beta damage
$SMH = sector pressure

The turn starts when strength spreads beyond one name. #Semis

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

Today’s semiconductor damage board:

$NVDA = relative leader
$SMH = breadth broken
$AVGO = de-risking
$AMD = high-beta pressure
$MU = deepest unwind
One chip bouncing is not a sector recovery. The turn starts when laggards stop underperforming $NVDA for real today.
#Semis

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

Semiconductor damage board:

$NVDA = relative shelter
$ASML = strong print, weak follow-through
$AMD = failed gap
$MU = deepest unwind
$SMH = sector breakdown

The group needs breadth, not another headline. $SMH reclaiming 587–588 is the first sign sellers lose control. #Semis

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

Semiconductor board now:

$AMD = strongest momentum
$MU = repair, but fading
$NVDA = stable laggard
$MRVL/ $WDC/ $SNDK = gap giveback
$ARM = clear weakness

The group is green, but leadership is narrow. Watch who holds the first pullback—not the biggest opening print. #Semis

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

Semi board right now:

$NVDA lost 208 and sits near 207.
$AMD holds 543 but remains below 548–550.
$MU bounced from 903, then lost 940.
$AVGO is still capped under 400 near 390.
Leadership is narrow, and $NVDA is no longer a clean anchor for the group.

#Semiconductors

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

Tried making pizza from scratch today.

The dough fought back, the kitchen looked like a flour explosion, and the smoke alarm provided the final review.

Still tasted better than expected.

#HomemadePizza #KitchenFail #SundayCooking

[Jeff Passan @JeffPassan]

BREAKING: Rookie standout JJ Wetherholt and the St. Louis Cardinals are in agreement on a long-term contract extension that will buy out multiple years of free agency, sources tell ESPN. Wetherholt, 23, has been tremendous and is the latest rookie to land a nine-figure contract.

[LongGameEquity @LongGameEquity]

Stifel bumps $AMD price target to $635 (from $450), citing a supply-constrained market with massive backlogs rather than a fundamental demand slowdown.

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

My semi board changed after the chase cooled.

$NVDA reclaimed the anchor.
$AMD is still repair.
$AVGO stayed quiet near 400.
$MU lost clean memory confirmation.

Yesterday breadth looked healthier. Today quality matters more. I want names that hold, not just bounced hard today.

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

Semis did not all say the same thing today.

$MU reclaimed attention above 1,000.
$AMD repaired into the 550s.
$AVGO held quiet strength.
$NVDA cooled near 202.

That is healthier breadth, but I only trust the names that hold their levels after the chase fades into close.

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

@antibearthesis Selective AI buying.
$NVDA is acting like the anchor while the rest of the basket gets tested.
That is a very different message from “AI is over.”

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

@joinautopilot AVGO strength is not just a Pelosi headline to me.

The stock is acting like clean semi leadership while $AMD and $MU are still resetting.

That is the part I care about.

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

$AVGO is the clean strength read in semis right now.

$NVDA is still the quality anchor, but AVGO is proving buyers want more than just the obvious AI leader.

That matters for portfolio construction.

[JP Insights @jpinsights]

$AVGO is such an interesting company to follow the coming 2-3 years. Estimations are very high, but by my calculations to small by around 20-25%. I think the upside is very good from here over the same time period (2-3 years).

Even more exciting than $KO.

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

My semi board today:

$NVDA near 205 = quality anchor
$AVGO = cleaner strength read
$AMD near 517 = beta test
$MU near 950 = memory reset

I do not want the loudest AI story. I want the chart that holds when the index gets heavy.

Best chip risk-reward here? Rank it now.

[Ryan Keller @Alec_Sotolongo]

The chip trade is separating fast.

$NVDA is pushing 197, but $AMD is back near 524 and $MU is down hard near 930.

Strong stories are not enough now.

Follow for the semiconductor portfolio map I’m updating next.