Alejandro Matoso

Equities trader

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

@itxMaggei The phone with degital buttons

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

$MSTR - Sold 32 BTC to "inoculate" the market.
Also: "To inoculate is to introduce a mild form of a pathogen, antigen, or vaccine into a person or animal."
Perfect execution to a genius strategy.

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

@Patrickwieland 10

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

$SMCI - Something does not add up. To fund the purchase of components for $39Bn worth of orders, SMCI's market cap (before proceeds) just dropped $4.8Bn which exceeds the gross profit potential of such orders.

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

Comparing market cycles:

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

$SMCI delisting

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

$SMCI vs $MU
Fwd P/E
SMCI 7.2x
MU 7.4x

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

Liquidity position

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

$SMCI - Now we can explain the big jump in revenue and the lower margin. Is the DOJ giving time to investors to sell their stock before charging the company?

[National Security Division, U.S. Dept of Justice @DOJNatSec]

Three Charged with Conspiring to Unlawfully Divert Cutting Edge U.S. Artificial Intelligence Technology to China

“The indictment unsealed today details alleged efforts to evade U.S. export laws through false documents, staged dummy servers to mislead inspectors, and convoluted transshipment schemes, in order to obfuscate the true destination of restricted AI technology—China,” said John A. Eisenberg, Assistant Attorney General for National Security. “These chips are the product of American ingenuity, and NSD will continue to enforce our export-control laws to protect that advantage.”

🔗: https://t.co/QXQDrCSIGJ

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Nvidia continues to cook their books (legally) by increasing finished inventory sitting in warehouses by almost 200%.

"Work in process" partially finished products that could be sitting in their warehouse.

3 customers account for 56% of $NVDA's accounts receivable (not paid).

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

My post here was inexact. My post elsewhere was more complete, below.

This chart shows why China will win if Nvidia’s chips are the way forward.

Nvidia's development roadmap is essentially a power consumption roadmap. and innovation is just figuring out how to power and to cool bigger, hotter silicon. Power needs keep climbing because efficiency gains cannot keep up with compute install.

This chart shows that is not a path to victory for the U.S.

Not only is China way ahead, it will continue to press its advantage - the slope is the key. That is acceleration of power generation development.

US transmission grid development is actually decelerating due to permitting issues while China is building transmission at will to match power output.

In fact, to the extent this is an AI arms race, US companies are plowing capital into a race it is structurally positioned to lose.

So it cannot be an AI arms race, if the US can help it.

The US needs to get away from bigger and bigger power hungry chips and innovate with AI-tuned ASICs like nobody’s business. Nvidia has a death grip on development through its investments and agreements with so many important US AI companies and startups.

DOJ Antitrust is investigating and should act, but Trump probably stops that. It is left to the market to figure out LLMs are not the way to AGI or ASI, and stop feeding the beast.

Can our biggest companies make the pivot?

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

@nvidianewsroom Silly post...probably a confirmation that peak sales are in.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM JUST BROKE IN TOKYO

Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit 3.41% today. That number means nothing to you. Here’s why it should terrify you.

Japan owes 230% of everything it produces. It’s the most indebted nation in human history. For 35 years, they kept the lights on by borrowing at near-zero rates. That era ended this morning.

Here’s What Just Happened

Core inflation is running at 3.0%. Government bond yields are spiking to levels not seen since 1999. China just conducted its 25th military incursion near Japanese waters this year. Japan is now forced to spend 2% of GDP on defense … nearly 9 trillion yen annually.

The Bank of Japan is trapped between two impossible choices: raise rates and trigger a debt collapse, or keep rates low and watch inflation destroy savings. They chose door number two.

Why You Should Care

Every major bank, hedge fund, and institution on Earth has borrowed yen at cheap rates and invested it elsewhere for 30 years. This “carry trade” could be worth anywhere from $350 billion to $4 trillion. Nobody knows the real number because it’s hidden in derivatives.

When Japan’s system breaks, this money unwinds. Fast.

The last time we saw a preview … July 2024 … the Nikkei dropped 12.4% in a single day. The Nasdaq fell 13%. That was a small tremor. The earthquake is coming.

The Math Is Simple!

Japan’s government pays interest on $9 trillion in debt. Every 0.5% increase in rates costs them $45 billion annually. At current yields, debt service will consume 10% of all tax revenue. That’s the death spiral threshold.

The yen is trading at 157 to the dollar. If it strengthens to 152, the entire carry trade becomes unprofitable. Unwinding begins. Emerging market currencies could drop 10-15%. The Nasdaq could fall 12-20% as funds are forced to sell.

What Happens Next

December 18-19, the Bank of Japan meets. Markets are pricing 51% odds they raise rates another 0.25%. If they do, volatility explodes. If they don’t, inflation accelerates and the problem gets worse.

There is no way out. Japan’s fiscal dominance is now permanent. They must keep the yen weak to service their debt. This means the free money that powered global markets since 1990 is ending.

The Bottom Line

Interest rates worldwide are going up 0.5-1.0% permanently. Not because of inflation. Because the world’s largest creditor nation can no longer subsidize global growth.

Your mortgage, your car loan, your credit card … all repricing higher. Stock valuations built on cheap money … all compressing. The everything bubble … all deflating.

This is not a recession. This is a regime change. The largest liquidity engine in financial history just seized up, and most people won’t understand what happened until their portfolios are down 30%.

Tokyo broke the world today. You’ll feel it tomorrow.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Read the full data driven deep dive article -

https://t.co/enhJeYNeo1

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Every company listed below has suspicious revenue recognition. The actual chart with ALL the give-and-take deals would be unreadable. The future will regard this a picture of fraud, not a flywheel. True end demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are funded by their dealers. If you can name OpenAI's auditor in 1 hour you win some pride.

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

$NVDA grew sales data center sales by roughly $10bn this past quarter.
It also announced $20bn ($10bn each) investment in OpenAI and Anthropic.
Meanwhile 65% of total account receivables or $33.3bn reported yesterday are from four large customers.

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

@andrewrsorkin Listening to it on audible. Nice work! Thank you

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

Good luck holding these long term.

All 0s.

Absolute delusion.

[Fugazi Research @FugaziResearch]

Check out our new report:
How BitMine ($BMNR) used an Ethereum pivot to spin up a $250M insider payday — before buying a single ETH.

Zero ETH. Sky-high dilution. Same old playbook.

Full deep dive:

https://t.co/SoV7v3gIBV

[Alejandro Matoso @AlejandroMatoso]

@reverselong Sorry I see this now. I would have loved to come with you. Next time.