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70% of alts will die, only a few will rise.
Everyone who is still waiting for 20–30k BTC must understand: no mining company will operate at a 100% loss.
So yeah, I believe 50k is the bottom. Otherwise, the whole crypto market is in big trouble.
I’m not play in this "game" - just trying to survive and make sense of this market.
Right now, fear dominates. The choice is between technical signals and real macro conditions, and both tell a very different story.
Technical view:
Charts suggest we’re standing on the deeper correction and bear market.
Yes, TA works in short-term structures, but it completely fails to predict global tops or bottoms.
The structure resembles mid-cycle exhaustion. The best-case scenario: short-term bounce from current levels or slightly lower.
Technically, odds look 75/25 in favor of a prolonged correction lasting 3–5 months or bear market
Macro & fundamentals:
QT is officially over.
Fed injected over $30B in repo liquidity within days - a clear stress signal in the banking system.
This can mean two things:
1️⃣ Hidden QE: early signs of policy reversal. Liquidity shocks don’t pump markets instantly but build pressure for future rallies.
2️⃣ Short-term patch: Fed just buying time for banks to adjust. In that case, risk assets could drift sideways or lower before recovery.
Other bullish signals:
The Fed Funds Rate likely peaked.
Powell hinted at a pause, but history shows that once cuts start, risk assets rally hard.
I seriously doubt there will be a pause.
Trump will either fire Powell or Powell himself will support rate cuts.
From this, we can draw two conclusions: either rates will be cut this year, which will stimulate the growth of risk assets, or we’ll see another long sideways movement - but not the end of the bull market.
My take:
📉 Technical setup - 75:25 bearish
📈 Macro outlook - 80:20 bullish
In other words, we might be near the final shakeout before the next leg up.
What's true? It's your choice. I don't give advise, yeap i'm afraid too.
Don’t go all in. Survive first. Save your life.
The market will swallow you whole and won’t even notice.
#Macro #Markets #Crypto #Bitcoin #FOMC #Fed #Liquidity #QE #RiskAssets #Trading #Investing #BTC #MarketAnalysis