@BurggrabenH
Iโve followed your detailed analyses on crude&products and appreciate your effort.
Could you please share how you currently contextualize the actual price and market developments compared to your earlier base case? I would greatly appreciate any updated thoughts.
@MenthorQpro Well, you don't have the 1D min before midnight so it's not so crazy as depicted, right?
The 1D min is touched before the 1D min is published. Look ahead bias imo
The corollary, of course, is that a sneaky rally in the dollar would catch nearly everyone offside.
With crowded long positioning in equities and gold, remember - the dollar is the denominator of everything.
@simon_ree positioning for the ES is (or was) ultra short last time I checked and thanks to the elected heros running the US the CoT data hasn't been published for the last two weeks. Which positioning are you referring to? Thank you as always.
Not only was the dump expected, it wasnโt even that unusual.
What was more unusual was the preceding 6 months without a 2% down day.
And a variety of warning signs have been flashing: positioning, extension, the VIX coiling, the dollar breaking outโฆ
After a vertical run like the market had, it was looking for any excuse to pull back, and it got one on Friday.
@DAX40 Thank you for the insights. I suppose it suggests we're at lofty levels, but as the saying goes: rationality has its limitsโirrationality is boundless.
@DAX40 Price action looks dodgy to me.. climbing for the wrong reasons and flat while risk off assets rise. But that's just my way to read it. Someone might call it resiliency