Alex Predicts

Finding edge in the noise. Daily market analysis and Polymarket plays. I bet on data, not vibes. Full transparency attached.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

Once I've confirmed that my strategy actually works, I'm launching a series of public predictions on Polymarket. All forecasts are available in a Google Sheet — link in bio/description. Feel free to follow if you're into this stuff! 🚀

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

2nd Largest Company end of January? ➡️ Apple

At the current 67 cents, this is a real gift. Yes, Google isn't trailing by much, but there are no factors that would let it pull ahead.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

Total commitments for the Ranger public sale on MetaDAO? ➡️ Over $40M

I estimate the probability of this event at 78%. At the current price of 60 cents, this is great value.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

Congratulations to everyone on the New Year!
May this year bring you amazing wins!
By the way, I’ve updated the table - out of 11 predictions, 10 have come true (although not all markets are closed yet).

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

Measles cases in U.S. before 2026? ➡️ Over 2050

We need just 38 more cases, outbreaks in South Carolina, Arizona, and Utah are contributing to this. At 54 cents, this is just an awesome bet.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

@zobeir 2 million dollars

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

How many jobs added in November? ➡️ Taking BOTH options: 50k–75k and 75k–100k

The combined probability of one of them is over 50%, buying at current prices (14 cents and 25) makes this a value bet.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

Measles cases in U.S. before 2026? ➡️ Over 2000

To hit 2000, we need another 88 cases. The norm in December is 5.5 cases per day (thanks to the cold). At the current 83 cents, this is a great option for a reliable bet.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2025? ➡️ Under 1550

My favorite kind of markets. Right now, the price is 51 cents (I snagged it at 20), but it's still a very good bet.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

#1 song on Spotify this week? ➡️ All I Want For Christmas Is You

I don't like this bet from a risk/reward perspective (current price: 94 cents), but it's super reliable—"The Fate of Ophelia" has zero chance of catching up. If you just need to make a couple bucks quick, go for it

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

How many Tornadoes in the US in December? ➡️ Under 30

This bet is just a gift for everyone who manages to buy in (current price: 48 cents). Right now, 0 tornadoes have been recorded in December + the month is expected to be cold (which reduces the probability of tornadoes).

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? ➡️ No

Right now, there's no potential for a sharp rise in this coin. And especially not to soar above its all-time high.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31? ➡️ No

Working out an agreement like that takes a lot of time, plus there are no signs of any change in the current situation.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

Largest Company end of 2025? ➡️ NVIDIA

The gap with Apple is too wide, and changes by year's end are unlikely.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

How many tornadoes in the US in November? ➡️ Under 20

This one's easy—the result is already known :)

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

1. How many named typhoons in Northwest Pacific in 2025? ➡️ Under 29

The season is over, and in the last 10 years there was only one typhoon that formed in December.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

@EventWavesIO Hi! Great product. I have a feature request: please add a tab showing the markets with the highest probability of odds movement, indicating the expected direction of the change and the confidence percentage.

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

@psychofftrading Hello! Do you accept payment by kidney?

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

@K25_SPb Здравствуйте! Давно вас читаю в жж, хотел спросить: По вашему мнению ковид создали в искусственно? Если да, я не понимаю, почему его создали в Китае, который против глобалистов (а они сейчас всей "эпидемией" заведуют)

[Alex Predicts @AlexPredicts]

@daniolmo7 @SeFutbol You are a disgrace to the Spanish team