Alex Fatio

🤹‍♂️

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

This is a new chart that will be featured in our weekly SectorSnap report.

In addition to illustrating the S&P 500's valuation bands, it combines forward earnings estimates with a range of valuation scenarios to help frame where the market could be headed. Hope you like it! 🤙🏼

Find it here 👉🏼 https://t.co/0vNhdUfW5m

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

We’ve removed the paywall to our latest “Thoughts on the Market” so everyone can read it.

🚨 Also: we’re running a 20% sale, but it ends today. So don’t miss it! 👉🏼 https://t.co/pyFna521Bf

https://t.co/QrYeXlyiNk

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

Rolling 30-day flows across all Bitcoin ETFs — which we usually lean on to spot tactical tops — have flipped sharply positive, reaching their strongest levels since October after spending months deep in negative territory.

We wrote about this in our Monday note (link in reply).

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

With the oil futures curve currently in backwardation, oil prices might actually be the better gauge for Middle East fears, because — much like the VIX — oil prices in that situation don’t really have a structural ability to keep moving higher indefinitely.

https://t.co/XcBYARjQYi

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

After net flows into all Bitcoin ETFs topped out on October 9, investors withdrew a cumulative $8.2 billion. However, over the past six sessions, flows have rebounded, with $1.6 billion in net inflows since the trough.

This sharp turn in flows marks the most constructive demand trend since the October peak. Whether price action follows will be the next critical test.

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

If you’re looking for the best weekly performance recap chart plus key stats on the S&P 500 and its sectors, consider subscribing!

👉🏼 https://t.co/8KfZjbml0U

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

The tone shift we saw last week was a direct response to index behavior. But contrary to what many think, opportunities aren’t disappearing — they’re just shifting.

👉🏼 Don’t confuse volatility with a trend reversal. That’s often how investors end up getting trapped!

https://t.co/1v9T57B44G

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

Happy Fed day to those who celebrate!

There's a 100% chance of a 25bps rate cut today.

By first-half of 2026:
54% chance of at least 4 cuts

By end of 2026:
52% chance of at least 5 cuts

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

The Fed cut rates for the first time in 12 months, and we’ve just gotten further confirmation that it’s highly likely they’re cutting into a recovery.

Last week’s Continuing Jobless Claim print came in 30k below expectations, causing the 4-week decline in Continuing Claims to be the largest so far this year — and finally ending a 3-month streak above 1935k.

👉🏼 More jobs are being added than lost.

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

Until now, rolling 21-Day Small-Cap ETF Flows have been negative all year, which not only highlights how bearish sentiment toward small-caps has been, but also explains the monster $23 billion in cumulative outflows year-to-date— even as the Russell 2000 is up 7.2%.

That is changing now, as 1-month flows have just flipped positive — basically for the first time all year!

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

It's bullish to see the S&P 500 back above 6000. Yet, some of the risk-on ratios we track haven’t quite cleared their May highs yet.

Still, the fact that those ratios are coiling is bullish in itself.

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

Could be a logical level to see the S&P 500 print a short-term bottom.

https://t.co/QASp2WL0CI

[Alex Fatio @Alex_Fatio]

@GerberKawasaki If you look at China numbers, yes!

[Alex Fatio @Alex_Fatio]

@sstrazza @allstarcharts Tell her about how there’s s been no expansion in new lows😅

[Alex Fatio @Alex_Fatio]

@DanGreenhaus Come on Dan, would be much appreciated!

[Alex Fatio @Alex_Fatio]

@DanGreenhaus Hey Dan, would you mind posting an updated chart of this one

[Alex Fatio @Alex_Fatio]

@cashch Oh, brillante Beobachtung! Währenddessen waren sie damit beschäftigt, all ihre Fabriken weltweit für das neue Model Y umzurüsten, das zudem das meistverkaufte Auto der Welt ist.

[Alex Fatio @Alex_Fatio]

@GuyAdami Literally todays top

[Alex Fatio @Alex_Fatio]

@chuckcook New Sanctuary City

[Alex Fatio @Alex_Fatio]

@MadsEberhardt yep, and the 20-day rolling flows continue to be a good indication for short-term tops and bottoms 👇🏼
https://t.co/Sdm87wiv8c

[Duality Research @DualityResearch]

Total inflows into all Bitcoin ETFs hit a new record high of $1.43 billion yesterday, nearly 3x the amount seen on Election Day.

20-day rolling flows remain a reliable indicator for identifying short-term tops and bottoms.

$BTC