Alexander G. Öhrn

Foreign Producer | @warstudies alumni | RT ≠ endorsement

[Engelsberg Ideas @EngelsbergIdeas]

The spy fiction written by Soviet intelligence officers was far more than propaganda.

The afterlife of the Soviet spy | Martin D. Brown (@MDRBrown)

https://t.co/o8c6iTWhiT

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

The way of war is changing, as shown by conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. Are the hundreds of billions of dollars being invested today in new tanks, planes and warships going to become the equivalent of buying horses and arrows on the eve of machine guns and howitzers? My deep dive. https://t.co/PcOhx5SM8M

[Peter Baker @peterbakernyt]

The average life expectancy of a new Russian recruit—from arrival at a training ground to death in a combat zone—lies somewhere between 10 days and three weeks. Once sent onto the battlefield, they survive an average of 20 to 35 minutes. @peterfrankopan https://t.co/W3UhBerdH0

[ABC News @ABC]

Former ABC News producer and driver Maksym "Max" Oseredchuk was killed in a Russian drone strike on Wednesday night while serving in Ukraine’s military. He was 30 years old, and is survived by his wife, Kateryna, and his baby daughter, Maria.
https://t.co/AO8nBgU1Wv

[The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent]

⚡️Belarus halts equipment used to guide Russian strikes, Zelensky says, after Ukraine's ultimatum.

The development comes days after Zelensky issued an ultimatum to Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, giving Minsk one week to remove the equipment or face unspecified action by Ukraine.

https://t.co/7gvsydqage

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

Draw your own conclusions from the body language.

[Oliver Carroll @olliecarroll]

Starved of interceptors, and overwhelmed by waves of Russian ballistic missiles, it's an increasingly losing game for Ukrainian air defence. “It’s like being a goalkeeper facing ten balls at once.” My new piece https://t.co/nQBY61FheS

[Marci Shore @marci_shore]

For Arendt, 20th-c totalitarianism distinguished itself by effacing boundaries between public and private. Today, fascism in a postmodern key strives to efface different boundaries: between reality and non-reality, human and non-human, truth and untruth.
https://t.co/cmZqNcmgrx

[The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent]

President Vladimir Putin has never lost an election in Russia. Outside Russia's borders, however, the Kremlin has been learning a different lesson. From Moldova to Hungary — and, more recently, Armenia — Moscow has poured money and political capital into influencing elections abroad. https://t.co/ed4z53FeVz

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

The Kyiv-Pechers’k Lavra, Eastern Europe’s equivalent of the Paris Notre Dame, though more than a century older. Courtesy of Vladimir Putin, that great defender of Christian values and Orthodox civilization.

[Karim Sadjadpour @ksadjadpour]

The Memorandum of Misunderstanding between the US and Iran:

The US believes Iran will restore the Strait of Hormuz as a secure international waterway, make significant nuclear concessions, and potentially abandon its revolutionary ideology--including its opposition to the US and Israel and support for regional proxies--in exchange for major investment from the same Gulf countries that have just been on the receiving end of thousands of Iranian missiles and drones.

The Islamic Republic of Iran believes it will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, receive tens of billions of dollars in upfront sanctions relief and unfrozen assets, make no concessions on missiles, drones, or proxies, while potentially offering to suspend uranium enrichment for the period of time they need to reconstitute their bombed nuclear facilities.

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

When the Kyiv Lavra was built, Moscow was just a meadow in the forest.

[Aleksandar Djokic (Александар Джокич) @polidemitolog]

For all those asking why Russia would bomb sacred Orthodox sites in Kyiv, let me remind you that the Soviet secret police, the NKVD, and the Red Army deliberately blew up central Kyiv in 1941, including parts of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, one of the holiest sites in Eastern Orthodoxy and a product of the Byzantine tradition that brought Christianity and literacy to the Slavs. Russia is once again erecting monuments to and praising the butcher Stalin and his bloody cohort. Also keep in mind that the Russian Bolsheviks destroyed more Orthodox churches and monasteries than any other invading force in the history of the Slavic world, including the Ottomans.

[Marion Solletty @MSolletty]

Jordan Bardella is coming for Europe.

In an exclusive interview with @POLITICOEurope , the leader of the National Rally said he would "cut in half" France’s contribution to the EU budget if elected next year.

Watch on https://t.co/XN1EyaDKGI and read⤵️

https://t.co/3untPTSxk8

[Dan Shapiro @DanielBShapiro]

Until the text of the US-Iran deal is signed and released, there is going to be a lot of spin on both sides. But here is my initial take.

This war was a mistake, and it needs to end. The President thought that the Iranian regime would collapse quickly, but it did not. In fact, it has been strengthened strategically by its survival against a heavy US-Israeli assault and carrying out some effective counterstrikes. Many countries in the region are now courting Iran and looking to deescalate and rebuild ties. A sign of which way the wind is blowing.

Getting the Strait of Hormuz open is the most important outcome of this MOU. Of course, the Strait was open before the war. Now we are paying to reopen it with sanctions relief. Iran has taken a theoretical point of leverage and turned it into a very real and powerful one, imposing costs across the global economy and rattling President Trump.

As for the nuclear issues, there really is no agreement, other than to negotiate over the HEU stockpile and an enrichment moratorium. Iran knows how to drag out those negotiations, and try to pocket concessions along the way. It is possible that no deal will every be reached, and very likely that if one is reached, it will be worse than what we could have achieved through diplomacy before the war.

Iran is not likely to take seriously that the US would return to war, certainly before the US midterms. So that means we will be conducting diplomacy without a credible threat of force.

If any agreement ultimately reached actually safely puts Iran's nuclear ambitions out of reach, I'll acknowledge it. It's just too early to make that judgment.

Trump is mainly focused on comparing his deal favorably to the JCPOA. But we are a long way from being able to make that comparison, and it may end up no better, or weaker than that deal.

But in some ways, Trump's deal and the JCPOA are already similar. Nothing on ballistic missiles, nothing on proxies, nothing on weakening the regime or helping the Iranian people. And plenty of sanctions relief that will strengthen the regime, and be poured into the missile program and proxy network. Honest critics of the JCPOA will not twist themselves into pretzels to defend Trump's approach.

Israelis are deeply disappointed in this outcome, but they should not be surprised. After some initial overlap of Trump's and Netanyahu's interests, there was a strong divergence. The United States needed this war to end. Netanyahu wanted to continue.

Trump's claim to include Lebanon in the ceasefire and his harsh shutting down Israeli attacks on Hezbollah is also a win for Iran. After the JCPOA was signed, Obama and Netanyahu worked together to strengthen Israel's campaign of strikes in Syria to intercept Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

So let's hope we see the removal of Iran's enriched uranium and a long-term suspension of enrichment, with full verification. But to achieve those goals, Trump's team is going to need to engage in far more sophisticated diplomacy, backed by qualified experts, than they have to date. If it is a phase one splash with no follow-up on implementation of later phases, like in Gaza, we will be much worse off after, and because of, this war.

[Alexander G. Öhrn @Alexander_Ohrn]

Russia’s imperial overstretch https://t.co/GafYZEbbbS

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

"Iranian and US officials held parallel talks with Qatari mediators in Doha over the past two days. The Qataris tried to arrange a trilateral meeting to directly negotiate on the remaining gaps, but the Iranians refused."

Two months and a change of mediator and we're still doing indirect talks over an interim deal that doesn't resolve the complicated issues

Not exactly bullish for the prospects of getting to a final agreement anytime in the foreseeable future https://t.co/Esv66u29dt

[Vali Nasr @vali_nasr]

Great piece by Asli Bali on how Israel’s drive for regional hegemony is compelling the US into more Middle East wars but it will not dictate the new realignments that it will cause https://t.co/e5KVzQ4Ifm

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

The wars in Ukraine — and now, Iran — show that the strong can’t quite do what they want, and the weak don’t always suffer as they must. My analysis of how the new age of empires may have been oversold. https://t.co/HjeZTS0g4X

[Alexander G. Öhrn @Alexander_Ohrn]

1984

[Anadolu English @anadoluagency]

#BREAKING US begins launching 'additional self-defense strikes' against multiple targets in Iran 'in response to Iran’s unwarranted and continued aggression': Central Command