Alex Smith

FINANCE GUY / PRO GEOPOLITICAL FORECASTER / “Show me the evidence”. Please no Crypto pitches or money-making schemes. Not Interested.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@TennisonEddie At the right time of year, the coast of the great lakes is a beautiful drive.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@Alfredbexus I stand with those demanding fair elections.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

Election crisis in Korea. This just being the latest issue.

[🇰🇷김정현 Alfred J Kim🇺🇸 @Alfredbexus]

🚨 BREAKING — Past Midnight
Thousands of South Korean citizens demanding an immediate suspension of vote counting are still gathering in front of the National Election Commission (NEC) in Seoul even after midnight.

Despite the late hour, public anger continues to grow as protesters rally against widespread ballot shortages and election irregularities in today’s local elections.

The people refuse to go home until their voices are heard.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

I think this is particularly likely because LLMs require creativity to implement. Its not just a new and faster piece of replacement machinery. And the best solutions likely have not been thought up yet. It is easy to experience a failure of imagination in evaluating LLM success with this in mind.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

I was considered to be incredibly weird, in elementary school especially.

I was (and still am) a person who goes deep down the rabbit hole on one thing or another. After numerous humiliations and even violence, I shut up about my latest thing.

Not fun, but once I became an adult, this penchant has paid off in spades.

Weird people just need time to figure out how to use their talents.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@dwarkesh_sp Hobby learning is fine with me.

As long as we still maintain the resources to live.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@ApexSeeker_ My opinion is that Japanese are too damn hard on each other.

A little less perfectionism, a bi more good enough.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@BraddrofliT Neither is acceptable.

Both are unfair. Not somehow. But clearly so.

And it would not just be billionaires holding stock. It would be anyone owning any capital asset.

Its insane and socialist, to say the same thing twice.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@ViiV_333 Thanks for this and many other informative posts.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@MsMelChen @LoftusSteve When earnest attempts at reasoning fail with someone, that is a factually supportable conclusion.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@nighttimemedia @mysteriouskat @HistoryBoomer People on social media are far more likely to do this.

Many have the potential but social media reduces the consequences.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@mysteriouskat @HistoryBoomer I remember the one time I got gang beat on X.

I made what I thought was an innocuous question, and then got attacked by seemingly hundreds of people.

It was not really about me. Just a sick kind of team-building exercise.

Homo homini Lupus

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@MrLeadslinger Go ahead and commit heresy.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@MsMelChen @Timcast Very thoughtful insights.

I thank you for that, since this pattern of behavior is so irritating it shut down my curiosity.

A lesson in there somewhere.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@SoveyX I just got a climate controlled storage space.

God, the liminal space vibe is so strong!

I feel like if I fell asleep in my unit, I would just disappear.

Spooky.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@MsMelChen @Tuckin65 Cannot believe I did not get he is having us on.

Slower than average these days.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@DavidSacks While good to know, did we need this to know the kind of men these guys are?

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@MsMelChen Wait a minute!

I am pretty sure the FDA approved this therapy along with the vaccine.

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

Drones will make infantry obsolete at this rate, unless heavily supported by anti-drone cover.

The US seems to be surprisingly uninterested in either the problem or solution.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Petraeus: The U.S. has not remotely learned the lessons it should from Ukraine.

This is the future of war: Ukraine alone uses 10,000 drones a day, and 90% of Russian casualties are caused by drones. That should force institutional change. 1/

[Alex Smith @Alexz2020Vision]

@dwarkesh_sp Bonus forecasting mover:

@mansourtarek_ Tarek Mansour of
@Kalshi

Really executing on the prediction market model of forecasting.