Alireza Ramezani

Iran Political Economy & Risk Analyst | Markets, Sanctions & Business Environment | @Cardiffuni alum

[Alireza Ramezani @AlirezaTehran]

A new Iran–US deal won’t be a repeat of 2015.
Back then Iran was rebounding; today it carries a decade of inflation, underinvestment, and sanctions damage.
A deal could ease FX pressure and inflation expectations, but it won’t rewind structural decay.

[Alireza Ramezani @AlirezaTehran]

Reports claim Trump urged Israel to use Syria to pressure Hezbollah.
If true, the logic is to weaken a key Iranian ally while avoiding a direct confrontation that could jeopardize diplomacy with Tehran.
On paper, it sounds neat. In the ME, things rarely stay that simple.

[Alireza Ramezani @AlirezaTehran]

Gold is up but it’s not a trend. Why?

A few months ago: “higher for longer” → yields up → gold under pressure.

Now: oil risk didn’t disappear, it just moved off headline → inflation fears → gold bids return.

No rate cuts or real supply shock, no real trend.

[Alireza Ramezani @AlirezaTehran]

Israel’s continued pressure on Lebanon may be creating an opening for Tehran. If Iran plays its hand with Washington carefully and pragmatically, it could create a relative divergence between US and Israeli interests in the region.

[Alireza Ramezani @AlirezaTehran]

Gold funds in Tehran’s stock market, which had been falling amid a weakening rial, reversed course immediately after Israel’s strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs.

[Alireza Ramezani @AlirezaTehran]

The question is why Hezbollah would strike Israel right before an Iran–US agreement is signed, potentially triggering an Israeli stike.

[Alireza Ramezani @AlirezaTehran]

Iran could strike Israel in response to the recent Beirut southern suburb attacks, which came after Hezbollah’s actions against Israel, even while signing a deal with the US.
If that happens, Lebanon is effectively outside the agreement before it even exists.

[Alireza Ramezani @AlirezaTehran]

Iran’s stock market is pricing in diplomacy-driven gains, but Israel’s strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs could test Tehran’s red lines and quickly widen the gap between expected and actual deal-making if tensions escalate.

[Alireza Ramezani @AlirezaTehran]

Iran’s auto industry has a curious business model: Build the car. Someone else captures much of the profit. A roughly 550 trillion toman gap between factory and market prices last year suggests that access to regulated pricing can be more lucrative than production itself.