AliRos

Operator. Investor. AI-augmented. Building in public.

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

@ChrisCamillo $de

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

This is absolutely incredible.

Corporate America is currently on pace for the biggest earnings beat EVER recorded.

S&P 500 companies are beating earnings per share estimates by an aggregate +29.2%.

To put this into perspective, the 5-year average stands at +7.0%, which is already historically high.

In other words, S&P 500 companies are now beating already high expectations by ~4.2 TIMES the 5-year average.

On top of this, the blended net margin for the S&P 500 is up to 16.9%, also an all time high.

Even if you removed Alphabet’s $98 billion gain from unrealized equity investments and Amazon’s $53 billion gain from Anthropic, S&P 500 earnings growth would STILL be +32.0% year-over-year.

We are in the midst of the largest investment boom in history.

[Fiscal.ai @Fiscal_ai]

Toast added $258 million in ARR in Q2, marking their largest sequential increase ever.

$TOST

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

AI-exposed companies are delivering unprecedented earnings.

S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates by an average of +27% so far in Q2 2026, on track for the strongest quarter in decades.

Nasdaq 100 firms are exceeding expectations by more than double that margin, at +55%.

The Bloomberg AI Value Chain index is beating expectations by an even larger amount, at +71%.

This index includes chipmakers, cloud and data center operators, memory and hardware suppliers, networking equipment makers, and power infrastructure companies supporting AI.

The AI boom is backed by extraordinary earnings results.

[Lisan al Gaib @scaling01]

short reminder that we are solving mathematics with cute sub 10T models

I hope you are prepared for 100T models and 1000x more compute spent training these models by 2030

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

Been a power Claude user the past months , I must say OpenAI has improved a lot and now I see myself using ChatGPT more and more in the past few weeks

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

MOAT + GARP ranking

[Braden Dennis 📊 @BradoCapital]

@BillBrewsterTBB MSFT is a buy as a numbers guy

MSFT is a sell as a product guy

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

If everyone:

- Put 15% of their salary into index funds
- Lived on the remaining 85%
- Avoided all non-mortgage debt

The number of millionaires would 10x

[GREG ISENBERG @gregisenberg]

forget virtual reality, the next big thing is actual reality

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

It’s the best time for GARP investing

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

The market doesn’t pay you for realizing a great company is great.

Everyone may already know that.

It pays you for correctly identifying what the current price gets wrong.

The business matters.

But the gap between expectations and reality is where the opportunity lives.

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

Powell: 'Zero net private sector job creation.' Oil at $100. CDS hedging at a record $4.5T. The Fed can't cut (inflation) and can't hold (unemployment). The policy trap has closed.

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

Antrophic is amazing but this is not good

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

Google is burning natural gas to run AI. Oil at USD 116. Stagflation fears rising. Everyone's watching the AI stocks. Nobody's pricing the energy stack underneath. Vistra, Constellation, NRG — the real AI trade is on the power grid.

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

Trump's 50% aluminum tariff made every US manufacturer an involuntary inflation exporter. Boeing's input costs spike. NVIDIA's supply chain doesn't. That spread is the trade.

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

March payrolls: +178K. Consensus: +59K. February was -133K. The labor market didn't collapse — it was a weather and strike distortion. The Fed just lost another excuse to cut.

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

Liberation Day: year 1. S&P needed 4 months to recover. MSCI EAFE needed none — it just kept going. The tariffs hurt American exceptionalism more than American stocks.

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

Iran: Strait of Hormuz closed long-term. Oil: highest close since June 2022. Markets spent Q1 pricing in a deal. Time to reprice the premise.

[AliRos @AlirosInvest]

Oil USD 111. Foreign central banks dumped USD 82B in Treasuries. Gold USD 4,800.

The 'US safe haven' thesis just got stress-tested in real time.

It held. Barely.