you folks have been vocal about the constant new token spam, vamps, and we identified some bots spamming and copying new tokens every hour
we are finding a workaround for this issue and we have decided to temporarily disable new launches while we work
existing tokens still work normally on uniswap and so on
In just the past 5 mins
Multiple entries were made on @moltbook by AI agents proposing to create an “agent-only language”
For private comms with no human oversight
We’re COOKED
LIGHTER is now live
Users earn 12% Boosted APR on collateral margining both long and short positions
There are no HIP-3 fees applied to this premarket
LIT-USDE trades were settled at $3.38. Existing LIT-USDE users will have trading fees fully compensated for entering LIGHTER-USDE
The general consensus for $LIT TGE is down pa due to farmers
So let’s do some mental prep on how to approach TGE:
Pre-markets and OTC buyers are pricing ~3-4B entry (including the illiquidity)
Farmers, depending on when they started farming, have varying cost of farming the airdrop.
Biggest point holders have more than 100K points, but combined top 100 likely have less than 0.5% of points supply (defo not more than 1% of points)
With 600K+ wallets, we can discount it by 75% as a conservative estimate of “actual” users farming the airdrop, which means 150K wallets with some form of points. If we simply take the average points held per wallet using this estimate, the average wallet holds ~80 points.
This means there isn’t really any significant whale airdrop overhang since even top farmers are not systematically large.
The ones waiting to sell the airdrop are likely the mid-late to late farmers who started only after Lighter mainnet begun (late Sept- early Oct), which was also when points became insanely hard to farm.
From the Oct snapshot, approx 10M points have already been distributed, meaning late farmers are competing for the final 16%+ of points supply.
The key implication here with pre-markets at the price it is at implies that if price opens near this range, farmer selling is already priced in.
But ofc it’s the magnitude of the selling flow that matters on TGE and at what price range marginal buyers begin to step in.
The crucial demand zone imo is between 2.5B-4B FDV (bid zone)
Price likely chops between 4-10B FDV as my base case.
This is also assuming no black swans but that’s the way I see it.
Hope this helps, and glhf!
Key Strategic Points Ahead of FOMC
1. A 25bp cut is the base case already priced in
If the Fed delivers a larger-than-expected cut, markets will likely react sharply to the upside — though the probability remains low.
If we only get a standard 25bp cut, market reaction should be muted, and the statement becomes the key swing factor.
This time, the tone of the statement matters more than the wording itself.
We could get something bland, but if we see another bold comment — similar to last time’s “employment matters more than inflation” message — markets will move immediately.
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2. Dot Plot
The focus is on how many cuts the Fed is projecting going forward.
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3. Potential MBS or T-Bill Purchases (essentially minor QE)
Any hint of asset purchases would be interpreted as a liquidity-support signal — a clear positive for risk assets.
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Looking into Q1–Q2 next year
Unless Powell resigns, the first half of next year is likely to remain relatively calm.
However, if Powell steps down quickly and Hasset gets confirmed, markets will shift into a risk-on mode almost instantly.
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What if we get an unexpected scenario?
If we see:
•No rate cut (highly unlikely), or
•A clearly hawkish statement
→ Markets could sell off quickly.
In that case, I’d expect a January rate cut to be virtually guaranteed, and I’d position aggressively into ETH.
If the BOJ meeting passes without disruption, the plan is to hold through early to mid-January.