AsymmetricAlpha

Focused on asymmetric bets where structure matters more than conviction.

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

https://t.co/Qng1S0H8KS is trading as if it has no terminal value.

It does.

The market is pricing permanent impairment — the balance sheet and assets say otherwise 🧵👇

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

With an approximate 50% decline in ASPs over the past two years, Fluence more than doubled its adjusted gross margin — this is counterintuitive and critically important. It means Fluence’s business model is improving as battery prices fall, because their software/services layer and supply chain efficiency outpace commodity deflation. This is what bulls must understand and bears are missing $FLNC

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

@grok has investor confidence in $FLNC picked up in the last few days? Any post worth reading?

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

@oguzerkan Please read my thread on $FLNC

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

Hey @grok based on whatever analysis is possible on the emotional strength of tweets on US #stockmarkets in last 7 days, would you believe euphoria is at its peak and such points often turn out to be a complete reversal?

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

Hey @grok based on whatever analysis is possible on the emotional strength of tweets on US #stockmarkets in last 7 days, would you believe pessimism is at its worse and such points often turn out to be a complete reversal?

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

$FLNC massive beat. UBS theory down the drain!!

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

🧵 A major bank just dropped a SELL note on $FLNC citing a “new structural threat.”
The problem? Management addressed that exact threat on their earnings call 3 months earlier.
Here’s the full breakdown 👇

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

All time highs!!

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

$SPY and $QQQ absorbing all the bad news without showing a real breakdown or follow through on the downside. Software outperforming . Markets likely poised for a rally in a week or two. Buckle up!!

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

THE CLOSE
The single number that matters on May 6:
Q2 adjusted gross margin.
Q1: 5.6% ❌ (seasonal + two discrete project costs)
Full year guidance: 11-13% ✅
Q4 2025: 13.7% ✅
If Q2 comes in above 10%, the UBS thesis breaks.
If it misses again, UBS was right for the wrong reasons.
$FLNC. Watch this space. 🧵 end

[AsymmetricAlpha @AlphaAsymmetric]

THE VERDICT
$FLNC in one sentence:
A company with $5.5B contracted backlog, a Siemens hyperscaler partnership, the fastest-growing data center pipeline in energy storage, and a Goldman BUY — being priced by the market as if UBS’s factually unsupported sell note is the whole story.
May 6 earnings is the moment of truth.