Alpha In Plain Sight

The best opportunities are ignored yet hidden in plain sight. Uncovering asymmetric small cap opportunities.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

$SRTA at ~$5.22.

Pay less than the parts on the only US operator running placement, recovery, NRP, preservation, and aviation end-to-end. Full-stack only stitched together in Sept 2025.

Strata's SOTP base case $7.27 (+39%) before crediting any deal. The roll-up on top of Strata is free.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

@peters33371 directionally yeah. CT/NG would be the really meaningful event.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

The $EVC bulls deserve the credit. I went through the Q1 filings trying to kill the thesis and every headline number they cite is real. ATS revenue $154.6m, up 204%. Segment operating profit $34.3m. The gross accounting point checks out too. As bulls mention, they book ad spend as principal, so the optical 22% margin is really ~59% on the actual take. Strip the big customer entirely and ATS still grew somewhere between 64% and 84% depending what you assume about last year.

Smadex itself is a real asset. Still run by its co-founder, and it shows up mid-table in gaming in AppsFlyer's latest performance index. Real and ranked, but the comps getting used are AppLovin and Liftoff.

Here's what I can't get past.

Largest advertiser concentration was 6% of revenue a year ago, 9% in Q3, and 36% in Q1. Unnamed, based in Hong Kong, gaming, no contract terms disclosed anywhere in the filings. The 10-Q's comfort language is that it "pays on a current basis."

Management took two pre-screened questions on the call, never said the word Smadex, and never addressed the customer.

And the people closest to it are acting like sellers. No insider has bought a share on the open market in a year. Trusts tied to the former CEO's widow sold 4.5m shares for ~$36m into the rally, and the cooperation agreement got terminated while the selling was still going. Shareholders just added 6m shares to the comp plan. In January the board set the CEO's five year PSU hurdles at $3.50/$4.50/$5.50/$6.50. The stock blew through all four within four months.

This is also the company that lost Meta in 2024. That was 53% of revenue, gone on about four months notice.

If the whale holds through two more prints, the segment math re-rates this into the high teens or low 20s. If it walks, the ex-whale earnings put you back around $4-6. At $2 both sides of that were a gift. At $9 you are choosing to underwrite an advertiser nobody can name.

I want one quarter where ATS grows and the concentration falls. Until then I watch.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

After selling Movies, $SCOR looks cleaned up. Term loan repaid, ~$36m cash, new CEO. But it's a flat business that loses money market valuing remain co at a steep ~0.9x. In a sale the common ($122m) sits behind a $184m preferred liquidation preference. A thin levered stub at $8.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

And there's proof point #2. 16x the size of OVPA.

$SRTA paid ~$16m cash (up to $20m) for ~$3m EBITDA. ~6x, all cash, no dilution. Five weeks later.

Buy private at 6x while your own stock trades ~15x EBITDA. That spread is the entire roll-up.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

$SRTA bought Ohio Valley Perfusion. ~$1m at mid-single digit EBITDA. Nothing groundbreaking vs $370m EV.

The "mid-single digit pipeline" mgmt has talked since Q3'25 just got its first proof point.

12x FY26 EBITDA vs USPH 16x = ~$6.50 on re-rate. Roll-up isn't priced in.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

@TimmyMcCarthy Yeah, the '27 wall is the real clock. And there is senior stuff over there, ~$3B of debt ahead of the preferred, common under all of it. Drahi just made sure he moved up a rung before that bill lands.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

Drahi swapped 80m of his own $OPTU shares out of the common into senior preferred at the unrestricted sub. At $2.50.

Same price as the tender some call a floor.

He chose senior paper over the common at that number.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

More convinced on $SRTA as a compounder thesis rather than an expectations trade than when I wrote it up.

Same network, new payloads. One logistics capability for anything that dies if it's late. Real TAMs where I have them:

Organs, the core. ~$2B addressable (mgmt)

Kidney, hand-carried in commercial cabins. Biggest organ, 60%+ of US transplants

Radiopharma, flying weekly. Logistics ~$1.1B to ~$1.7B by 2030

Xeno, in the trials. Too early for a TAM.

CAR-T, logistics ~$1.5B to ~$4.3B. Possible, but less likely

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

Three interesting takeaways from the $SRTA interview with @aktien_max and @topsecretstocks:

1) Strata is "actually involved in some of the clinical trials" for Xenotransplants. Pig-organ bridges to human transplant. If Xeno scales the logistics problem gets harder (pathogen-free facilities, tighter time windows). Strata positioning as the infrastructure layer for the next demand step.

2) Tomkiel: "We are very well capitalized. Real prime position to execute on our pipeline." Add to her Q1'26 EC line that future M&A "structures will involve some equity component." OVPA in April was the first proof point. I'd imagine at least another tuck queued for H2.

3) Kidney commercial-cabin hand-carry started as a trial. Now "offered to all our customers" with "near 100% completion rate." Capital-light revenue layer, no airframe drag.

IMO these moves my management are lowering fixed-cost deleverage risk of its network infra. Higher TAM ceiling optionality.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

$NNDM trades under its cash. ~$364m cap vs ~$440m liquid (incl 11% of $SSYS). Murchinson is forcing a special meeting to block any big deal or raise without a shareholder vote. Stops the bleed. The cash still isn't coming back on its own though. ~$2.10 NAV on my math

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

$ABDP

AB Dynamics, the world's #1 maker of automotive test robots, compounded revenue ~21%/yr for a decade.

Now ~9x EV/EBIT, down from ~20x. The de-rate is one ugly half: a big robot order that didn't repeat + a mostly non-cash write-off on a small China unit. Priced like it's done growing.

[Anp🅰️nman @spacanpanman]

$SRTA: Strata Critical Medical finally breaking out nicely well above prior $6 resistance

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

$LE doesn't clear 5x on textbook FCF. ~10-12x TTM but could easily get to that ballpark on a forward basis.

Math (pro-forma post-WHP):
• ~4.5-5x EV / Adj EBITDA NTM
• ~$50M net cash at WHP close
• Sales inflecting: Q4 +4.7%, 49% GM (record)
• $100M buyback auth (27% of mcap)

The catch is that $22M/yr of JV income classifies below EBITDA in GAAP. EBITDA screeners miss it so you have to adjust it.

Tailwinds the $22M doesn't capture: JV scales to $35-40M as WHP licenses out, Eddie Bauer customer capture, tariffs roll off, operating leverage at 49% GM.

https://t.co/A70Lk05H3l

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

@researchne89461 Yeah I think it’s Ebola related but it very well could be

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

So $OSUR is just ripping every day now.

Up 31.3% since my report in just two months.

Also:
$SRTA: +18%
$LE: +20%

However, I did say avoid $RDVT and its up 24%.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

Over the past several weeks I wrote up $RGR, $OSUR, and $LE. Three setups, three different catalysts.

Circling back on where each name currently lands.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

$LE hosting an "enhanced" earnings call June 9

Since the WHP JV closed, WHP and G-III jointly acquired Marc Jacobs from LVMH. WHP's platform runs licensing, G-III operates DTC and wholesale. Same playbook as the LE deal. WHP now surpasses $9.5B in global retail sales.

Very curious what management puts on the board

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

Three interesting takeaways from the $SRTA interview with @aktien_max and @topsecretstocks:

1) Strata is "actually involved in some of the clinical trials" for Xenotransplants. Pig-organ bridges to human transplant. If Xeno scales the logistics problem gets harder (pathogen-free facilities, tighter time windows). Strata positioning as the infrastructure layer for the next demand step.

2) Tomkiel: "We are very well capitalized. Real prime position to execute on our pipeline." Add to her Q1'26 EC line that future M&A "structures will involve some equity component." OVPA in April was the first proof point. I'd imagine at least another tuck queued for H2.

3) Kidney commercial-cabin hand-carry started as a trial. Now "offered to all our customers" with "near 100% completion rate." Capital-light revenue layer, no airframe drag.

IMO these moves my management are lowering fixed-cost deleverage risk of its network infra. Higher TAM ceiling optionality.

[MAX RAHN @aktien_max]

The organ transplant industry has a hidden infrastructure play.

And Wall Street may not have noticed it yet.

In Episode #2 of “Connect The Dots”, Simon @topsecretstocks and I sat down with the leadership team of Strata Critical Medical $SRTA a fast-growing $500+ Mio. public company building an integrated platform across organ logistics, recovery and placement.

Watch the full episode here:
→ YouTube: https://t.co/7LkPcsImsx
→ Spotify: https://t.co/6DgYakEfN6

Did you know ~15 Americans die every day waiting for an organ that never comes?

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

@aktien_max @topsecretstocks Awesome content thanks. I am super bullish Strata as well (write-up below no paywall).

$SRTA

https://t.co/qPqMlJJ44F

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

$SRTA at ~$5.22.

Pay less than the parts on the only US operator running placement, recovery, NRP, preservation, and aviation end-to-end. Full-stack only stitched together in Sept 2025.

Strata's SOTP base case $7.27 (+39%) before crediting any deal. The roll-up on top of Strata is free.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

@peters33371 That would be big maybe someone knows something.

Thanks man that means a lot. You too

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

@peters33371 Good question. I am not completely sure quite yet.

[Alpha In Plain Sight @AlphaPlainSight]

@peters33371 Yes, mostly off $CODX which announced a Bundibugyo assay strategy this week. $OSUR owns Sherlock Biosciences (Dec '24 acquisition) and the Cas13a platform has peer-reviewed Ebola/Lassa work. The platform link is real, but $OSUR hasn't announced anything Ebola.