AlphaPropSharks

Free NFL Player Props; 29-14 record, +13.3 units (27% return) since 12/11 launch

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

As we wrap up our 🏈 Sunday, let’s reflect on the generational run we’ve had to start this account. We’ve hit 26 of our first 37 picks, winning over 70% of our bets (all over-unders). We’ve profited 13.6 units / 32%. For context, top cappers aim for 55% win rates. Spread the word

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

And 1 over we’re taking - Gainwell o30.5 rec yards -112

This line is so low that we were worried it was a trap but appears like straight value. Gainwell has averaged 45 rec yards in his last 8 games and they’ve Texans allow slightly above average rec yards to opposing RBs -ride

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

Another 1-unit 🔒Woody u56.5 rush yards -110

Harmon completely changes this Steelers rush D and they’ve been elite when he plays all year, including allowing 3.6 YPC in the last 3 games while facing Gibbs and Henry in 2. Woody has also struggled this year averaging ONLY 3.6 YPC

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

Solid 3-1 Sunday - let’s keep it rolling

1 unit on DK u56.5 rec yards -114. Texans are 5th best pass defense overall, 7th best against WR, and elite against WR1 with Stingley who will be in primary coverage against DK and possibly shadow

#dkmetcalf #MNF #Texans #steelers

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

Early game sweep let’s go

1 unit each on

CMC o58.5 rush yards -115 - priced under 3.3 YPC despite recent strong rush game with Trent back and weak Eagles rush defense

Jennings u46.5 rec yards -110 with Eagles lockdown secondary recently particularly against WR1

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

We’re all in on UNDER Brent Strange today. 1 unit each on u36.5 rec yards -114 and u3.5 receptions -127

Bills have allowed the fewest receiving yards and receptions to opposing TEs this season, including 31% fewer receptions than the 2nd best D against opposing TEs. CLAMPS on TE

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

Rams-Panthers 1 unit 🔒s

Young u86.5 1H pass yards -113 as he has really struggled in the first half all year
Hubbard o8.5 rec yards -109 as this is below his average and Rams allow 5th most receiving yards to opposing RBs
Kyren o68.5 rush yards -112 priced well his season YPC

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

We were on a bit of a cold streak but just hit this MASSIVE +23448 8-leg CFB parlay to cash over $2.3k. More NFL locks incoming soon and maybe we’ll start posting some of these sprinkle lays so everyone can smack one like this too #lottoparlay #CFP #CollegeFootballPlayoffs

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

Kirk INT -150 (1 unit)

Kirk has thrown 39 picks in his last 47 games and 4 in 6 starts this year while facing mostly subpar secondaries. The Rams have forced the 6th most INTs this year, utilizing disguised zone coverages which Cousins struggles against

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

TE thesis against Rams continues - 1 unit on Pitts o51.5 rec yards -112

Rams’ split-safety, zone-heavy scheme opens short-to-intermediate middle windows where Pitts feasts. Kirk has favored him heavily recently and Pitts even got 7 catches for 57 yards last week with London back

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

We’re all-in on Puka tonight - he’s been on absolute tear and his target share is insane with Adams out. Atlanta plays zone-heavy conceding high-percentage throws over the middle where Puka thrives

1 unit each on Puka o106.5 rec yards -110 and o53.5 1H rec yards -115

#puka

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

CMC o5.5 rec & Monangai o43.5. CMC averages 6.1 catches per game on the year and that number goes up with KITTLE OUT. The bears have let up the most catches per game to opposing running backs! Monangai HAS BEEN A BEAST recently. This 49ers D stinks up the middle where he strives.

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

T LAW is set for another MONSTER GAME o245.5 he has been on a heater and goes up against a colts defense that just let up a monster game to the niners! This colts defense has regressed recently and has struggled against the pass. We see this continuing today.

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

Michael Carter o43.5 has been GOING OFF recently and faces the worst rushing defense in the league! He is projected at 4.1 YPC SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW CINCI AVERAGE ALLOWED. We think he hits this easily at projected 10 touches today!

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

James Cook is set for a HUGE GAME o86.5 against this eagles defense whose secondary has been impenetrable while their run D has lacked recently. We think there is upside to the attempts line as well as YPC! Could see another big game from the leagues leading rusher

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

Elijah Higgins o20.5 is set for another big game against Cinci defense who STINKS against TEs his target share jumped last week with Marvin Harrison limited due to illness. We have seen multiple tight ends have big games against Cinci MANY TIMES this year.

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

SAINTS HUGE PASSING GAME AGAINST THE TITANS!!

Chris Olave o5.5 rec
Juwan Johnson o4.5 rec

We think this is easy bets as these 2 dominate target share for saints against a Titans Defense that has let up a lot of catches to opponents receivers, largely shorter why we favorite red

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

Analysis on Trey McBride

Cincinnati has let up the most yards to tight ends on the year. Trey McBride is by far the best tight end on the year and is top 10 we. He is priced at historical rec and yards line despite this. We like him for a huge game today.

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

1-unit🔒s today
Carter o43.5 rush yards -114
McBride o76.5 rec yards -112
Cook o86.5 rush yards -112
Olave o5.5 rec -105
J Johnson o4.5 rec -110
Dowdle u49.5 rush yards -115
E Higgins o20.5 rec yards -110
Lawrence o245.5 yards -117
Monangai o42.5 rush yards -115
CMC o5.5 rec +110

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

Hopkins o9.5 rush+rec yards -118 (1 unit) at BetMGM

Our theses rely primarily on matchups vs historicals but this one was too mispriced to pass up on. Hopkins averages 22 yards / game this year and 33 yards / game in the adjusted 2 full games Huntley’s played (preferred target)

[AlphaPropSharks @AlphaPropSharks]

@_Noops For sure, expecting lots of sacks and scrambles this afternoon. Houston’s great defense has actually allowed plenty of opposing QB rush yards this year because of their elite pass rush and lack of use of a QB spy, opening QB running lanes and hopefully into the end zone today!