Alpha Sutra

Focused on wealth creation. 10 years of core equity research/investment experience.
3 most imp behaviour which always works : rationality, objectivity, clarity

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@BRishi30501 @tushar9590 @OlaElectric @bhash Nice one 😂

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

🚀🚀

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

Strong growth in this q

65% vol growth.

I repeat, this product is already half way.

Key to watch new products and segments

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@RamK132 What is the competitive landscape here? Who are they gaining market share from? Suddenly a lot of order wins

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@kushkatakia Good one👌

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@amitabhvatsya Once the demand supply gap narrows, margins can not sustain to high levels. Government budget needs to be tracked vs the capacity being built up.

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@amitabhvatsya Problem is not the opportunity size, but the commoditized nature of the business; once competition increases, margins are squeezed disproportionately. Main thing u need is capital and now everyone like oswal pumps, gk have access to capital. So roe declines structurally

[Aviator Anil Chopra @Chopsyturvey]

"Why Tejas Mk1A Faces Software Integration Challenges with Israeli ELTA AESA Radar and Scorpius EW Suite"
https://t.co/2C1boJidWQ

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

One +ve aspect of booming retail investor is the risk capital.
Many capable co. had capital constraint and were not able to fund the disprprtionate growth even if opp was available. That constraint is totally gone.

Flip side - many promoters taking undue risk by this capital

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

Fund raise confirmed - 500cr

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@ravihanda Hahaha 😂 nice one.
I think OLA has definitely paid many influencers to post very positive reviews recently.
I think they need to raise fund again 🤣

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

Game here is JLR, beyond a point EV will not move the needle materially. I think, if they show decent numbers in H1, stock will move to 500+ in no time.
6 PE is not comparable as JLR contribution is v v high which gets only 1.5-3 EV/EBITDA. Currently at lower levels of this range.

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

😂 makes sense

[Ashish K. Mishra @akm1410]

Bhavish Aggarwal's retail business is floundering, battery business is in the doghouse, so he is now exploring going B2B, to sell to delivery fleet. All his low quality engineering can be lit on fire there.

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@dhawal20jain We are acting as shock absorber only 😂 absorbing and absorbing

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@rajuidesai Not inside out, but they do understand the key nuances of the businesses
Promoter quality (may go wrong but they do have a view)
Quality of business (cycle and key dynamics)
Competitive intensity, market size, optionality and other softer aspects

And Overall risk

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@AimInvestments Q4 accounted for 31% copper vol and 12% absolute EBITDA. The core reason for hedging is to improve quality of earnings. In an upwards copper price movement they have shown such performance. Not blaming them but street has no understanding of the calculations and hedging formula.

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@AimInvestments What about ebitda per ton? No one understands the hedging policy properly. In such scenario how have they hedged that so much impact. They have 13 rs ebitda per kg. How are they hedging it. Abs ebitda at just 24 cr in copper segment this q

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

Why ? 🤦🏻‍♂️

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@InvestorOfJAMMU Should do v good now. Good commentary as well. Domestic as I expected, benefited the most from op lev. JLR also improving.

In large cap, this should be a handsome outperformer

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@InvestorOfJAMMU Also strong export

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@InvestorOfJAMMU Stock will not go down. They will outperform big time. Underlying tailwing for them is scooterization trend which is growing at v high rate vs MC. Plus they are gaining MS in scooters.

Norton
Scooterization
EV
Overall outerformance. I expect positive bias at tomorrow open

[Alpha Sutra @AlphaSutra90]

@BRishi30501 @1shankarsharma @sandipsabharwal @OlaElectric @bhash Hahahaha