Alpha_Kvng

Onchain Analyst | wyckoff student | Affiliate @the_defi_report | ex @thebigwhale_

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

https://t.co/NMMz71x8Kj

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

@MrMekzy_ Na second paragraph I come down

[Michael Nadeau | The DeFi Report @JustDeauIt]

SOL Market Cap: $47.3 billion
PUMP Market Cap: $652 million

The biggest mispricing in crypto is not SOL vs ETH.

It's PUMP vs SOL.

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Check it out 👇

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

@nevergoon100 6N9QvEuiwgBHNYJVhYLU6CQ8ThzBb1KVbh6toVhiS8vj

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

@RalAndrewTalks @Harri_obi @CHIEFIKENGA Wtf😂

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

Is onchain data showing less pain than it should?

Most cycle-bottom frameworks rely on onchain metrics to confirm capitulation.

This cycle may be different.

ETFs now hold 6% of BTC's supply, and that doesn't show up in standard onchain cost-basis data.

1/

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

The full KPI breakdown and how @the_defi_report is thinking about this adjustment is covered in this week's report.

See the link to get access to the report:
https://t.co/QUUeT5wIfo

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

Is onchain data showing less pain than it should?

Most cycle-bottom frameworks rely on onchain metrics to confirm capitulation.

This cycle may be different.

ETFs now hold 6% of BTC's supply, and that doesn't show up in standard onchain cost-basis data.

1/

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

ETF ownership changes how onchain data should be interpreted.

Knowing which metrics still matter and which need recalibration may be the difference between reading this cycle correctly and reading it like the last.

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

@Nectar_finance 6N9QvEuiwgBHNYJVhYLU6CQ8ThzBb1KVbh6toVhiS8vj

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

@blknoiz06 6N9QvEuiwgBHNYJVhYLU6CQ8ThzBb1KVbh6toVhiS8vj

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

Markets don't always bottom when the pain feels worst. Sometimes they bottom when the selling keeps happening w/o much additional price damage.

One metric stands out this week:

How much of the prior cycle's capital base has actually been flushed out through realized losses?

1/

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

@JustDeauIt https://t.co/QUUeT5wIfo

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

Markets don't always bottom when the pain feels worst. Sometimes they bottom when the selling keeps happening w/o much additional price damage.

One metric stands out this week:

How much of the prior cycle's capital base has actually been flushed out through realized losses?

1/

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

Why that distinction matters — and how it fits into the broader cycle awareness framework — is what this week's edition by @the_defi_report explores in depth.

See comments if you'd like to get the full report.

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

That doesn't automatically mean BTC has to make dramatically lower lows.

It could mean price chops sideways while investors slowly sell rallies, lose patience, or de-risk.

Sometimes time does the work that price used to.

3/

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

Why does a protocol with billions in TVL sometimes earn less than one-tenth its size?

Take a lending protocol sitting on huge TVL. Looks dominant on a chart.

But if only ~40% of that capital is actually out earning fees, and the protocol only captures a small slice of...

1/

[Alpha_Kvng @Alpha_Kvng_]

@timmyisagod Hello, didn't we see this same level of degeneracy when odumodublvck was asking people to paint themselves green and dance for a price. Its everywhere please.

Of course not encouraging this behavior but don't make it about what it's not. Nigerians will just be Nigerians for $