David Bush

Quant CIO @ Alphatative. Chief Market Strategist @ REKTelligence. Award-winning trader David Bush delivers equity, ETF, and crypto analysis from the Caribbean.

[REKTelligence @REKTelligence]

#Bitcoin has once again stalled - but still holds - against its 365-day VWAP, the subtle declining red line on the bitcoin:native daily chart here. Past tests have seen quick retreats, but not this time, at least so far. I’ll be looking for more chop, followed by further upside in time.

[David Bush @Alphatative]

RT @REKTelligence: When the $SPY & $MDY make new 3mo highs without the $QQQ - like last week - the expectation is negative.

From 2000 to n…

[REKTelligence @REKTelligence]

Semi ETF $SMH is now down more than 16% in just 25 days.

Buying MOC with a 5-day hold, the stats since 2000:

Avg Trade: +2.54%
Hit Rate: 68.2%
Profit Factor: 2.61

Decent bull edge and statistically significant. Common setup during the DotCom bear — a potential concern.

[REKTelligence @REKTelligence]

#Bitcoin’s current adventure below its 200sma is now the 4th longest streak in its history. That is, consecutive days closing < 200sma.

Here are all streaks with at least 30 straight days below the 200sma.

The 3-year return from the last day below has always been positive.

Full read and context in my latest Substack.

[REKTelligence @REKTelligence]

I'm a Saylor skeptic. Not just recently as his TradFi scaffolding around Bitcoin comes under pressure, but a skeptic in better times.

Why? Because Finance and Hubris almost always end in a nasty divorce.

That said, despite the many challenges Strategy (MSTR) potentially faces, MSTR's STRETCH% reading is the 3rd deepest ever. These have been reliable bounce indications for traders with experience & discipline. Risk management is paramount in these trades.

*research not advice

[REKTelligence @REKTelligence]

Even a partial unraveling of any part of Strategy’s TradFi empire could have a potentially dramatic short-term effect on #Bitcoin and accelerate the cycle bottom.

The most compelling chart right now in crypto isn’t even crypto. It’s $STRC.

Full analysis in my latest REKTelligence Report. Cheers

[REKTelligence @REKTelligence]

Compared to recent years, there’s a shift under way.

The Top 20 stocks inside the #SP500 have carried the index for 2 of the last 3 years.

In 2026, however, the bottom (roughly) 480 are driving YTD returns.

While many debate “is this the top”, breadth remains strong.

[REKTelligence @REKTelligence]

Unless “this time is different”, #Bitcoin will have to trade below the #RealizedPrice of the network, the Realized Price of Short-Term Holders and the Realized Price of Long-Term Holders before it can successfully bottom.

While traders equipped with proven edges can capitalize in all environments, investors will want to look for the LT Holders to enter into pain as Bitcoin falls below their average cost basis (purple).

In prior cycles, this has occurred just before $BTC bottoms.

I’d welcome this time to be different, but it’s not data-supported.

[David Bush @Alphatative]

Deeply negative Stretch% readings often occur at major lows.

Worst 5 Readings per year 2014 to now:
2020-03-12: -42.32% (BTC $4,970)
2015-01-14: -37.73% (BTC $178)
2018-02-05: -34.27% (BTC $6955)

The fear at these lows is palpable. The prices at these lows are long gone.

[David Bush @Alphatative]

With the divergence between the surging NASDAQ 100 &amp; sagging Bitcoin growing, the BTC/NDX ratio hit a 2-yr low in Feb.

Test: “Buy Bitcoin when BTC/NDX hits a 2yr low. Exit 2 years later.”
Avg Trade: +1114.5%
Worst Result: +203.9%
Win Percent: 3/3

Limited data. Compelling value.

[David Bush @Alphatative]

The 4% Inflation Line: Where Equity Returns Go to Die

[REKTelligence @REKTelligence]

On a recent @PompPodcast , Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs made a claim definitely worth examining: the stock market has been historically negative when #CPI is above 4%. I ran the numbers. Here’s what 110 years of data shows.

full report here: https://t.co/PRJEyZ9qfz

CPI Regimes, 1915 - Present

[David Bush @Alphatative]

Really great to talk quant philosophy, method, and systematic crypto with @algo_advantage!

[AlgoAdvantage | Simon @algo_advantage]

Join David Bush @Alphatative &amp; myself on a guided tour of building out a stable, but high performance systematic crypto portfolio. Curious how many of my followers trade crypto and how they do it. Would love to hear in the comments.
https://t.co/fqk3Fqmk8g

[David Bush @Alphatative]

Get ready #Bitcoin HODLers...

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC ruling on BlackRock's spot #Bitcoin ETF due this week - Bloomberg

[David Bush @Alphatative]

@CryptoHayes King Arthur - would you be willing to assign a probability to BTC 10k? 65% chance it gets there? 90%? Cheers

[David Bush @Alphatative]

@RyanSAdams The Good People in crypto are: [1] those who know the difference between a CeFi business operating within the crypto space and an actual DeFi project [2] those who understand Satoshi's white paper = *no need to trust* [3] those who build for the future no matter what

[David Bush @Alphatative]

@bankless Arthur Hayes... for his perspective on the intersection of this week's crypto industry-specific treachery and the glimmer of macro light we saw this morning. KUTGW!

[David Bush @Alphatative]

@RaoulGMI Would be more interested to see you ask same question &gt;= 35% or more

[David Bush @Alphatative]

@CryptoHayes Sir Hayes - just getting in to this tome... Perhaps you've devoured long ago? Cheers, much respect. Keep the essays flowing!

[David Bush @Alphatative]

@CryptoHayes Macro simply rules the day. Assuming a successful merge (not a given, of course), today's weakness is ultimately just noise. A conservative ETH annualized return (from near a bull cycle peak of 1/01/2018 through mid-bear 8/31/2022) is still +117.5%.

[David Bush @Alphatative]

@vurnt22 Dear JVas and Vernon - I played drums with Gordon Gaines in the late 80's and/or early 90's...time is fuzzy. Incredible gigs. We started at midnight on Monday nights, often getting started 1am Tuesday or later. I am unearthing old cassettes and a video to digitize. Cheers, ((db))