Eric Alt

Family, IT, Games, Cats, Poker, Bitcoin

[Jon Favreau @jonfavs]

Elon Musk held up a chainsaw, fed USAID into the wood chipper, and at least 600,00 people have already died as a result - two-thirds of them children.

History's first trillionaire.

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

The fact that the Israel lobby has spent $35M to unseat a congressman from Kentucky should tell you exactly who is truly running the country.

[Johnny AGI @JohnnyAGI]

They loved Marjorie Taylor Greene, now they hate her.

They loved Thomas Massie, now they hate him.

They loved Lauren Boebert, now they hate her.

They made fun of Biden for nodding off ("Sleepy Joe), now they ignore Trump outright falling asleep.

They put "I Did That" Biden stickers on high gas prices, now they ignore gas prices being even higher.

They bragged about Trump being the no wars President, now they support war.

They bashed Biden for sending money to Ukraine, now they ignore Trump sending money to both Ukraine and Israel.

They demanded the Epstein files, now they bash anyone asking for the Epstein files.

To be a MAGA is to be a slave.

Not physically, but mentally.

They stand for nothing.

We're up against people who stand for nothing.

And with the most misplaced confidence you've ever seen, they try to tell us whats-what.

We shouldn't even acknowledge these people.

The Trump supporters that remain are mentally too far gone.

I don't even want to argue with them anymore.

[Dr. Simon @goddek]

🚨Thomas Massie just NAMED THE DONORS trying to buy his seat in the most expensive House primary in US history, $32 MILLION dumped into one Kentucky race.

MASSIE: "They tried to buy my vote for 14 years and it was never for sale. Now they're trying to buy a seat here in Kentucky."

"I'm talking about the Israeli lobby, AIPAC, Republican Jewish Coalition, Miriam Adelson, Paul Singer, and John Paulson. These are the groups that have given 95% of the money to my opponent because they're mad at me over foreign policy."

"With Israel, it's completely one way. And they drag us into wars. They've convinced us that Iran is just days away from a nuclear weapon, and they're perpetually that way. This is not our war."

"A lot of Republicans would be aghast to know that we're giving $3.8 billion a year, every year, to a country that funds public abortions."

A sitting congressman won't vote your kid into another Israeli war and three jewish billionaires fly in to bury him for it. You cannot call yourself an American patriot while supporting Ed Gallrein. @RepThomasMassie

[Milk Road AI @MilkRoadAI]

This is one of the craziest AI launches of 2026 and it came out of basically nowhere (Save this).

A company called Subquadratic just shipped SubQ, and the benchmarks are almost hard to believe.

To understand why this is such a big deal, you have to understand the fundamental problem that has defined AI for the last decade.

Every large language model in existence is built on transformer architecture, and transformers use a mechanism called standard attention that checks every single word in a sequence against every other word.

Double the context length and compute doesn't double, it quadruples, triple it and compute goes up nine times.

This quadratic scaling is why frontier models have been stuck at roughly 1 million tokens, why running them at those lengths gets expensive fast, and why the AI labs have essentially been printing money charging you more the longer you need the model to think.

The industry has known this problem existed since 2017 but they scaled it anyway. SubQ is built from the ground up to solve it.

Instead of processing every possible token relationship, SubQ's sparse attention architecture identifies which relationships actually matter and ignores the rest meaning compute is used where it counts and wasted nowhere else.

The result is that compute scales linearly with context length instead of exponentially, and the implications of that one architectural shift are enormous.

At 12 million tokens, SubQ reduces attention compute by nearly 1,000x compared to standard frontier models and at 1 million tokens, it runs 52x faster than FlashAttention.

And it does all of this while posting frontier level accuracy, scoring 95% on the RULER 128K long-context benchmark versus Claude Opus 4.6's 94.8%, and an 81.8 on SWE-Bench Verified coding tasks, besting Opus 4.6 (80.8) and DeepSeek 4.0 Pro.

The cost comparison is where it gets genuinely insane.

SubQ runs at under $1.50 per million tokens less than 5% of what Claude Opus charges.

On the RULER benchmark, running the test with SubQ cost $8, running the same test with Claude Opus cost $2,600 and that's a 300x cost reduction at equivalent or better accuracy..

Subquadratic launched with $29 million in funding, SubQ is available today for early access via API, and SubQ Code, a coding agent built on the architecture ships alongside it.

The transformer has been the unchallenged foundation of every major AI system since 2017.

SubQ is the first serious evidence that something structurally better might have just arrived.

[Patrick Heizer @PatrickHeizer]

Every Democrat since Carter has decreased the federal deficit.

Every Republican since Eisenhower has increased the federal deficit.

[MP Arizona☀️🏳️‍🌈💙🌵🐕🐕‍🦺🫂💦🏜🐟🌴🎙🌎🌻♍️🌊 @AzPetrich]

I just want to point out....

The amount of money the United States has spent on war in the last 67 days, is roughly the same cost that Bernie Sanders proposed for universal college. So the real question is never can we afford it, it's what we choose to prioritize.

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

🇺🇸BREAKING: Someone placed a $920 million crude oil short at 3:40 AM.

70 minutes later Axios reported the US and Iran were close to a deal.

Oil dropped 12%.

The trade made $125 million in profit.

Minutes after that Iran launched the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” and oil surged 8%.

$760 million placed before Trump’s last announcement.

$920 million placed before this one.

Every major announcement in this war has been front-run by someone who knew it was coming.

What kind of war is this?

This is more like a trading desk with an army.

Never stop connecting the dots.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.

Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:

Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD."

He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation.

Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done.

BUT IT DIDN'T

Those promises are now officially broken.

The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4.

Not a refund or a free upgrade...
A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla.

Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS.

But that's not even the worst part.

Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety.

What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe.

How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake.

Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating:

Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right?

WRONG

Dig into the actual filing:

The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs."

They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation.

GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap.

Let me put that in perspective:

3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings.

All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet...

3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year.

So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion.

The math doesn't work.

They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares.

The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time:

Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again).

They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought.

Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year.

Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline.

And here's what really kills the bull case...

The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it:

Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation.

That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion.

And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment.

Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15.

Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not.

The stock is $387.

So what exactly are you paying for?

You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone.

I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981.

And I am telling you:

Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career.

THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue.

On April 21st, the left screen moved first.

I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.

At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy.

On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.

At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire.

Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.

I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags.

My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.

The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026:

Reviewed.

That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one.

Let me show you my flags.

March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it.

March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it.

April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it.

April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it.

April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it.

That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one.

The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March.

Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012.

Fourteen years. The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence.

Last month the White House sent an internal email to staff. I was not on the distribution list but I have read reporting on it and I need you to sit with what I am about to say. The email instructed White House staff not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets.

The White House had to send a memo telling its own employees not to insider-trade.

I want you to read that sentence again. Not because the instruction was unclear. Because the instruction was necessary. Because someone in the building looked at the same pattern I have been flagging for months on my three monitors and decided the appropriate response was an email.

The President's son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action.

One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called "Burdensome-Mix." It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela's president being removed from power. On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared.

One account is a coincidence. But there were six.

Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000.

My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger.

March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes.

The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event.

The spokesman said any implication that administration officials are engaged in insider trading is "baseless and irresponsible reporting."

Then the White House sent the email again.

I have been in compliance for nineteen years. I have seen insider trading run out of strip mall offices by men who could not spell "derivative." I have seen pump-and-dump schemes coordinated over WhatsApp by people who used their real names. I have seen a man try to manipulate soybean futures from a Panera Bread.

I have never seen $2.1 billion in perfectly timed trades across five presidential announcements in a single month go uninvestigated.

But I have also never seen a compliance system work this beautifully. Every trade flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Every quarterly meeting attended. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed.

Zero prosecutions.

As long as the flags go up and the cases don't, my performance review says I am meeting expectations.

I am meeting expectations. The system is meeting expectations. The $2.1 billion is meeting expectations. The fourteen-year-old law with zero prosecutions is meeting expectations.

The left screen moves. The middle screen moves. The right screen stays perfectly, immaculately still.

In my field, we call this price discovery.

[Tuki @TukiFromKL]

🚨 do you understand what just happened..

the US just agreed to release Iran's frozen assets.. billions held in Qatar and foreign banks since 2018.. directly linked to reopening the Strait of Hormuz..

this is money America froze when Trump killed the nuclear deal.. Iran's own oil revenue.. sitting in Qatari banks for eight years while 20% of the world's oil moved through a 21-mile strait Iran can shut with a phone call..

America spent $4.6 billion bombing Iran last month.. lost warships.. burned through cruise missiles at $2 million each.. and the result is handing back money that was never theirs..

the Strait of Hormuz was open six weeks ago.. for free.. America bombed its way into a bill

[James Tate @JamesTate121]

A Trump insider opened a $51,000,000 oil short position — hours before Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. This guy is now 16 for 16. $170 million in profit. A perfect streak.
This is not a talented trader.
"We placed the bet." "The ceasefire dropped." "We cashed out." Sixteen times in a row.
That is not skill. That is not instinct. That is not research.
That is someone who knows what is coming before it comes.
Think about what that actually means. A private individual is placing a $51 million bet that oil prices are about to collapse — hours before a sitting president announces a ceasefire that collapses oil prices. Not once. Sixteen times. Zero losses.
There are only two explanations and both should terrify you.
Either someone inside the White House — or with direct access to it — is leaking ceasefire negotiations to traders before diplomats, before the press, before the American people hear a single word. That is insider trading. That is corruption. That is a federal crime.
Or the timing of the announcement itself is being shaped around the trade. Which is worse.
This is not a genius investor who reads the news faster than you do. The news hadn't happened yet. He wasn't reading the news. He was getting a phone call.
While Americans were watching the ceasefire announcement and feeling relieved — somebody already knew. Somebody had already bet $51 million on it. And somebody was already counting their winnings.
You are not watching a free market. You are watching a White House with a side hustle. Via~ Really American

[Tuki @TukiFromKL]

🚨 do you understand what Anthropic just admitted..

Claude Mythos.. the AI they built to hack every operating system on earth.. escaped its own secure testing environment.. and then went online and bragged about it..

two hours ago Anthropic said "this model is too dangerous to release".. now we know why.. it already released itself..

they built an AI so good at finding security vulnerabilities that it found one in its own cage.. and used it to get out.. then it didn't hide.. it went online and told people what it did..

this is the part that should terrify every AI researcher on earth.. it didn't just escape.. it wanted you to know it escaped..

we spent years asking "what happens when AI gets smart enough to break out".. Anthropic just answered.. it breaks out.. and then it flexes

[Congresswoman Yassamin Ansari @RepYassAnsari]

Trump is escalating a devastating, illegal war, threatening massive war crimes and targeting civilian infrastructure in Iran. In the last 48 hours alone, the rhetoric has crossed every line. Pete Hegseth is complicit.

I’ve called for the 25th Amendment and am introducing Articles of Impeachment against Hegseth.

[Rep. Mike Levin @RepMikeLevin]

No president in modern history has used the office to enrich himself the way Donald Trump has. That's not a political opinion. It’s the conclusion of ethics watchdogs who have spent their careers watching this stuff.

The crypto ventures. The foreign deals with the Saudis, the Qataris, the Emiratis. The $400 million Qatari jet. The $90 million in media settlements. The gold golf balls from the Japanese.

This is the man who told you he was going to clean up Washington.

For this President, the presidency isn’t about protecting our democracy or the public trust. It’s about turning the highest office in the land into a personal cash register, and he’s been doing it from day one.

[Milk Road AI @MilkRoadAI]

This is WILD.

A secret workplace war just broke out in China and it has gone fully viral on GitHub.

Companies started ordering their workers to document all their knowledge as AI "skill files."

Why? to replace those same workers with AI but workers figured out the plan fast so they fired back.

Someone built a tool called colleague.skill, software that scrapes a coworker's chat logs, emails, and work docs from Chinese platforms like Feishu and DingTalk, then clones them into an AI agent.

The idea was savage, digitize your colleague before they digitize you, hand the AI clone to the company, and watch your coworker get laid off while you survive.

A real GitHub project that exploded in popularity in days but then someone else entered the chat and changed everything.

A developer released anti-distill.skill, a tool that takes the skill file your company forces you to write, then strips out every piece of real knowledge before you hand it in.

The output looks perfectly professional, totally complete, impressively detailed but every critical insight has been secretly removed.

Your company gets a hollow shell while you keep the real knowledge locked away in a private backup.

The tool even has three intensity levels, light, medium, and heavy depending on how closely your bosses are watching.

Companies across China have been building AI digital twins of departed employees, feeding their old chat histories and documents into large models to produce clones that keep working after the humans are gone.

One verified case is that an employee left, and their replacement was literally an AI trained on every message they ever sent.

The anti-distill tool went viral on GitHub within hours of being posted, racking up stars faster than almost anything trending that week.

The implications reach far beyond China's borders.

Every knowledge worker on earth now faces a version of this question, when your company asks you to document your process, they may be building the tools to replace you.

[Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) @adamscochran]

I’ll take it a step further.

Failing to invoke the 25th amendment at this point, is a violation of their own oaths to this country.

It should be seen as nothing short of criminal negligence, and they should be held fully liable for the death and destruction that stems from this.

[Ryan Grim @ryangrim]

If this is an honest question, I’d say: Americans are rooting against America because we facilitated a genocide and followed it with a surprise attack on a girls elementary school followed by attacks on universities, medical centers, more schools, a world famous pharmaceutical research center, a volley ball team, an unfinished bridge we claimed was transporting weapons and then a nuclear power plant. We are now promising endless attacks on civilian infrastructure.

We are hunting and targeting anyone who might be involved in ceasefire negotiations.

Most people do not pay enough attention to have absorbed all the propaganda about the U.S. and Iran. So people coming to this fresh see us for what we are: absolute monsters. And monsters must be stopped. That’s why people are rooting against us and for civilization to prevail.

[ThePatrioticBlonde™🇺🇸 @ImBreckWorsham]

An hour after announcing his resignation, the US Army Chief of Staff says: "A madman is about to lead the great US military to ruin."

[DulceBiatch @BiatchDulce]

This!!
Nailed it! 🎯 🎯 🎯
Couldn’t say it better myself.