Big Picture View #ES_F: Last week was charting 101. I week ago I posted it built a 2 week bull flag and broke out. What was the plan? Rip, and we did
Plan Next Week: Consolidate, flag again. 7800-7724=the range. Breakout targets 7820, 7870, then 7920. 7724 fails, dip 7695, 7649
Big Picture View: From Jan 13 to Monday, #ES_F formed a big bull flag. It broke out Monday, we rallied to 7040. On Thurs, we backtested it 6920. Now, bulls must hold
Plan Next Week: Bulls want to hold 6949-52/6920 lowest. Targets 6988, 7043, 7074+. If 6920 fails, sell 6890, 6822
Big Picture View: After +225 point rally, #ES_F sold last 4 days of 2025. We bottomed Fri at trendline support from Nov. Decision Time
Plan Next Week: 6885, 6864=supports. Must hold to keep 6925-35 live. Dip, then breakout to 6964, 6989, 7020
If 6864 fails, sell to 6822, 6796
📈 $SPY WAS THAT A ___?
• $VIX kept falling all day making new lows while the breadth was improving and indexes were digesting the move.
• The close makes the situation interesting into tomorrow will a slight edge to the bulls here on the chart.
• What really stood out today was Nasdaq breadth held higher along with NYSE and $QQQ has one last bear gap that is open which comes into play once 486 is broken.
• SPY targets above are 573 and 575 this week.
• Bears need under 570 and close under the trendline for lower.
TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK: $SMCI was a 3x play this week and we are currently looking for another big trade.
FLOW UPDATE: $NVDA 132C 10/4 124C 9/27 both on flow and remaining strong there. $KWEB $PDD remain strong on flow. $BIDU 100C 9/27 was on flow just before close. $TSLA remains bullish on flow into delivery numbers next week. $AVGO 180C were also added on.
If you like my analysis hit the ❤️ and re-post.
Have a great weekend! On August 15, #ES_F broke out out a month long bull flag at 5420 & squeezed 240 points. We spent this week flagging again, 5588-5659
Plan Next Week: Fill out the flag. This sets up 5695, 5728, then new ATHs to 5780. Warning: If 5588 fails, we short to 5538
Every 1st of the month until the end of the year, I'm going to send $2000 to one follower to help pay their rent or mortgage. The first tweet will be on July 1st. All you have to do is comment on the post and I will pick a random person. Stay tuned! 🫡
For 4 weeks, #ES_F built a huge bullish inverse head & shoulders and yesterday, it broke out @ 4830. "Measured move" target=5040. Not in a straight line
Plan Next Week: Test 4880-85, reaction zone. Bulls must hold 4825-30 lowest, to keep it going to 4907, 4925+. It fails<4825
$COIN Weekly
- When you zoom out; The 2 year base only looks that much more impressive.
- The significance of the 117 Pivot should not be under estimated. It's an absolutely critical spot.
- Prior rejection spot from both: Blackrock Day / August 22' + XRP News Day / July 23'. Above that liquidity zone I would not be surprised to see 150 + 177 in a hurry.
- I do think short term: Rest + Consolidation may be needed and healthy. I'd like to see the 100 Psych Level build much needed support.
- Overall; chart looks like a beast on HTF's and won't be surprised to see 200 in the first half 2024.
High Probability Short Trade Using A Key Support Level 📉
Explanation below 👇
SPX started to break down 2 weeks ago after FOMC. Within one trading day, SPX fell from 4461 to 4373. The key support level for SPX this year was 4325, which was also the high from 2022. SPX tested this level two days after the FOMC meeting and fell to 4238 within three days.
If you had played puts on the 4325 break, weekly options could have paid you 500-1000% depending on the strike and expiration date. I purchased the 4260P for $5.00 and it moved to $20+ last week after the SPX failed to hold the 4325 level. Since SPX broke 4325 it’s dropped 109 points. Waiting for key support breaks can present the best opportunities for trading the downside. If you are patient, you can catch great opportunities in any market condition.
$NFLX - Under 400 - Trade Idea 💡 - Sept 22nd 385P
Closed at 396.94
NFLX had a sharp drop off last week dropping from 449 to 395
If NFLX fails to reclaim 400 we can pull back to 380
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$AAPL $AMD $AMZN $BA $META $JPM $MSFT #NQ_F#ES_F $NVDA $QQQ $SPX $SPY $TGT $TSLA $GOOGL $AI