Pantamu

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

空头们瑟瑟发抖

[子时 @silverfang88]

海力士财报这么好的信息
感觉提前博弈完了
那就是这几天都在拉盘
要血腥清算空头了

特朗普也打算雷霆手段
迅速解决俄乌/伊朗
在最终投票之前把油价干下来

阴线在对冲基金做空仓位
到历史极值的那天见底

如今一根大阳线
剩下的都是利好了

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@huanhua34473601 @yang0668 怎么样？今天爽不爽？

[MELANIA TRUMP @MELANIATRUMP]

THE CEASEFIRE HAS COMMENCED
The ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia took effect at 4:00am Moscow time on October 27, 2026. 

Timing was accelerated two days ahead of schedule to protect the safety of civilians and to facilitate the delivery of critical humanitarian aid. The ceasefire’s geographic area has expanded beyond Oleshky, within the Kherson Region, to provide safe passage for the humanitarian convoys.    

General Valery Gerasimov, Joint Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces has confirmed.

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@uzi04248629 要根据家里实际情况。不要被很多表面的叙事所迷惑。

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@oncedeity 拒绝空谈，助力

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

写在美联储会议之前

利率究竟是什么？是交易的首要问题。但是这类问题通常是没有答案的，就像什么是重力，什么是光，什么是有为法。AI是无法给出答案的。

现在脑海里又有一个新答案，利率就是提前兑现短期欲望的代价。低欲社会，利率就会低。要满足长期欲望，得做放贷的人。

短期欲望，长期欲望，是飞仔@CaptainLufei999 发明的。但是我不觉得人类所有的短期欲望满足以后就不需要了。嗑药喝酒都是短期欲望，但是不压制，可以喝到死。打游戏不克制，也可以打几天猝死。赌博炒股炒币也一样。所有杠杆都附带利率。

一切有为法，如梦幻泡影。不要赌美联储决议。

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

No. 2008 was a fast credit crisis: high-leverage borrowers, non-recourse loans that people could walk away from, and mortgage risk packaged and sold.

China’s setup is different. Household leverage is moderate and down payments are large. Mortgages are full recourse, so borrowers keep paying even when underwater.

It's closer to Japan in the 1990s: no single collapse, but a long period of falling asset prices.

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

ANT IPO （today's S-1 filing）

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@jukan05 Do you plan to allocate more capital for ANT IPO or buying the semiconductor dip?

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

子弹是用来打新ANT还是抄底半导体？

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@aystxdlzfhj 微软手里不少openai股票

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@xum19830125 正常解决方案是最差方案，已经试验过了

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@borejuexing888 你在成为大V的路上

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@JuanUS0914 是为了在黑暗中等校车的小孩

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@laobaii 现在出口还可以，创新高

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@xiaoyige0422 你家里有人懂的话，你把这张小票上传可以报销

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@LenardReads 有很多没有利息的卡

[Pantamu @AlwaysPantamu]

@JuanUS0914 很好，早上天太黑了