John Amach

A seasoned husband, father and energy enthusiast who believes Africa's empowerment is now and tied to global synergies-People, Planet, Profit (sense)

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

A reminder from Atomic Habits by James Clear:

“It doesn't make sense to continue wanting something if you're not willing to do what it takes to get it. If you don't want to live the lifestyle, then release yourself from the desire. To crave the result but not the process is to guarantee disappointment.”

[Blue Georgia @BlueGeorgia]

CNN montage of all the times Trump announced deals with Iran.

Anderson Cooper: Today marks 39 times that he has said something like that.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

New US strikes on southern Iran.

The market's first question: "how much more oil goes offline?"

Wrong question.

Hormuz traffic is already down 90–95%. There's almost nothing left to lose.

What the strikes actually change is the clock.

🔸What was hit?

The targets weren't random missile launchers, radar, mine-laying boats, command nodes around Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island.
That's the exact infrastructure the IRGC uses to enforce the near-blockade of the strait.
CENTCOM frames it as self defence after the Apache shoot down.

💡Degrading Iran's grip on Hormuz doesn't reopen Hormuz.
It makes reopening HARDER.
Every strike shrinks the political space for the confidence-building both sides need to restart 5–10M bpd of flows.

Less control ≠ more oil

🛢️The inventory hole

Meanwhile the math compounds: OECD stocks heading toward ~2.3B bbl — multi-decade lows. Shell's CEO puts the cumulative deficit at 1.0–1.2B barrels, a year+ to rebuild even if things improve tomorrow.

Every week of escalation digs the hole deeper.

So the curve tells the real story: front-month supported, backwardation steepening but the long end stays capped.

Why? The market still believes in Fujairah 2027, Guyana, Brazil, US shale.

The stress window is 2026–27

These strikes don't price barrels offline. They price TIME how long the world runs on draining inventories.
Duration, not disruption, is the trade.
Watch the calendar, not the headlines.

[Julians Amboko @AmbokoJH]

Softening interest rates & a post-Ukraine War commodity price spike turnaround in global macros handed banks across East Africa a much needed tailwind in 2025 with net earnings buoyed by tidy unwind of loan loss provisions.

With the war in the Middle East raging for just about 100 days now, the macros have shifted & credit portfolios are coming under stress & we are back to 2023/24 bind - balance sheet scaling vs asset quality right sizing.

When I sat down with the East Africa Regional Chief Executive for Standard Bank Group (@SBGroup), Joshua Oigara, I asked him how a perennial best in class from a loan book quality standpoint, Stanbic Bank (@StanbicKE), is posturing in view of the prevailing environment.

Oigara argues that if anything, the trend-line of the bank's loss ratios suggests that perhaps the lender is underweight in core segments of the market & therefore has headroom for gorging on more risk even in the present environment.

[blue @bluewmist]

I'm finally reading Dune. This quote, which is in the first few pages, hits hard:

"Once men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them."

[Kevin Dahlstrom @Camp4]

🚀 The only career advice you need:

The actor Glen Powell auditioned to play Rooster in Top Gun: Maverick.

When the role was given to Miles Teller, Powell was devastated. He was offered a smaller role, but declined.

Tom Cruise summoned Powell to his house and asked him:

“What kind of career do you want?”

Powell responded:

“I want to be like you—an iconic movie star. You always choose great roles.”

Cruise shook his head.

“You’re wrong. I choose great movies, then I make the role great.”

Powell got the message. He accepted the role of Hangman—and nailed it.

Now Powell says:

“It changed the trajectory of my career.”

When young people ask me for career advice, I tell them something similar:

🚀 Attach yourself to a rocketship.

Join companies that are growing quickly. Work with people who are going places. Be part of something great.

Play your role—no matter how minor—exceptionally well.

The rest will take care of itself.

P.S. I don't write engagement bait, so I need your help to spread the word. If you enjoyed this post, would you like, comment, and repost?

[Path of Men @PathOfMen_]

"To be happy you must eliminate two things; the fear of a bad future and the memory of a bad past"

[Veloria 🌊 @veloriahq]

𝘚𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘢𝘴𝘬𝘦𝘥 𝘮𝘦, “𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘷𝘦?”

𝘐 𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘥, “𝘐𝘵’𝘴 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶’𝘳𝘦 𝘩𝘶𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘧𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘥, 𝘦𝘹𝘩𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘥, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘵 𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘨𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.”

[Ory Okolloh-Mwangi @kenyanpundit]

So how much is Sakaja crossing with then if that’s how the county planning guy is rolling?

[Suppressed News. @SuppressedNws1]

WTF!

Reporter: “How do you define a ceasefire?”

Trump: “In that part of the world, CEASEFIRE is when you’re SHOOTING in a more moderate manner.”

[IRAN EMBASSY in KENYA @IRANinKENYA]

100 days ago, if anyone had said:
“The world’s superpower, the so-called top military power in West Asia, and 7 other countries would team up to attack Iran… and it would end with America’s Secretary of State begging at the UN for someone to open the Strait of Hormuz for them”
You would’ve told them: “Take him to the mental hospital!”
Yet here we are. Reality has gone crazier than fiction.

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

⚠️Vitol just said the oil market is underpricing risk.

🛢️14 million barrels/day offline.

📉Inventories being drawn at record pace.

🇨🇳China not importing 5 million bpd it normally would.

The turning point comes when someone needs the physical molecules and they simply aren't there.

Tom Baker, Vitol's MD for Bahrain:
"The turning point could be when someone really needs those physical molecules and the physical molecules just aren't there to buy."

🚨This is the world's largest independent oil trader.
Speaking about physical markets.
Saying prices are too low.

The 3 buffers all running out simultaneously:

1. Inventories
"We can't indefinitely draw down from inventories."
IEA already released a record 400 million barrels. Commercial stocks at historic lows. ExxonMobil said $150–$160 when the floor hits. Chevron said June and July will be worse.

2. China's missing demand
"China won't indefinitely not import 5 million bpd."
China has been drawing on its own strategic reserves estimated at 1.4 billion barrels instead of buying at market. When Beijing re-enters the market as a buyer, it adds 5 million bpd of demand back overnight. That is not a gradual event.

3. Product markets the part nobody is pricing:
"Crude can come back online, but from a product perspective, it might be very hard for the system to catch up for the rest of the year."

This is the key insight.

Even when crude flows resume, refinery runs, product inventories, and distribution logistics take months to normalise.
Gasoline, diesel, jet fuel these markets move slower than crude.
The product crunch outlasts the crude crunch.

Full analysis including what this means for commodity inflation and the assets positioned to benefit in my latest article.

Link in the comments 👇

[Pie Sports Booze 🔞 PARODY @piesportsbooze]

"Dad what's that?"

"Looks like the penalty from Gabriel, son."

[Aaron Rupar @atrupar]

Trump claims his strikes haven't really hurt the Iranian military: "We've actually left their military alone. People would be surprised to hear that."

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Taxpayers realizing they will pay $300 billion to reconstruct Iran after paying $70 billion to destroy it

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

“Without commitment, you will never start. Without consistency, you will never finish.”

— Denzel Washington

[Reads with Ravi @readswithravi]

Marcus Aurelius wrote this over 1800 years ago:

“Until death, all defeat is psychological.”

[Iran Embassy in Türkiye @Iran_in_Turkiye]

America’s “war boss” looks like a failed gym bro who thinks fighting Iran is a Hollywood movie. History buried men far tougher and more dangerous than this loudmouth — none could defeat Iran.👊👊👊

[Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

NEW: Iran's chief negotiator says:

1. “We seize concessions not through dialogue, but with missiles; negotiations are only to make the other side understand.”

2. “We trust neither guarantees nor words — only actions. Iran will take no step before the other side acts.”

3. “The winner of any agreement is the side better prepared for war the day after.”

[Social Experiment @MediaMK]

Tatu has a project (going for 45M KES) my bank RM asked me to go see 😂😂😂 the unit is so small, I can fit into my current house. It’s been sold as ‘London in Kenya’