AmadeusValue

Long-only PM investing in GARP and special situations globally.

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

Great outcome on $HUM.AX - article below:

https://t.co/d9Map6X7U7

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

@alexeliasson Legend

[Harley Grosser @CapitalHInvest]

Smart move

[Ron Shamgar @RonShamgar]

Let’s go Anton 💪🏻💪🏻👏👏

Drew must not be allowed to vote the $HUM shares he purchased during those dates mentioned 👇👇

Make sure to vote to remove board - we have !!

(Held)

https://t.co/I9ucFAHDes

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

$HUM.AX Humm Group update:

A third party investor, Akat Investments Pty Ltd, has filed a Takeovers Panel application regarding the BoD handling of the Credit Corp proposal; and the Chair’s trading in company shares after the proposal was disclosed.

Akat appears to be the family office of Anton and Alfred Tagliaferro.

https://t.co/N4DFAShy10

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

$HUM.AX Humm Group Limited 🚨🚨

20 good minutes on $HUM.AX with my friend @AndrewRangeley on why the board needs urgent renewal at the upcoming EGM.

https://t.co/INuvEVKBnj

Please continue to vote, follow https://t.co/HtcK8Hw630 for an updates.

Please share, it takes a village! 🙏🙏

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

$HUM.AX Humm Group Limited 🚨🚨🚨

full rebuttal to all the spurious, highly misleading, and cherry-picked points made by the incumbent Board, available here:

https://t.co/DreCEd47JZ

20 min discussion where I break down exactly why the HUM board needs urgent renewal, with a play by play of all the many governance abuses, here:

https://t.co/G88RkNaxuh

feel free to share, and remember to continue to vote for change.

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

$HUM.AX update 🚨🚨 the Notice of Meeting has been dispatched (via post, also available online below), and voting is OPEN. You can vote from link directly on the site:

https://t.co/DreCEd47JZ

If you hold your shares in street name (eg thru IBKR, etc), you will need to vote via them. Full details to follow in due course.

PLEASE VOTE and VOTE ASAP. It is ESSENTIAL to getting the best outcome for all stakeholders here.

🙏🙏

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

As mentioned now that mkts are open again I will do a no of deep dive 🧵 on Humm Group $HUM.AX.

As you prob know, I own ~29mm shs here (~$20mm AUD); and have (along w/ CSAM) called an EGM to effect Board Renewal, that will be held on Feb 19, 2025. All details here:

https://t.co/DreCEd47JZ

These threads will be organized as follows:
1) What are we playing for? (valuation, etc - 50+% upside imo if we win)
2) The status quo (incumbent Board) and what it offers
3) What I/new Board offers + event/arbitrage set-up

NB you should only look at this if you intend to vote in the EGM. It is not hard to vote - full instructions will be forthcoming - takes 5min online for most Aussie shareholders. If you hold through IBKR/overseas brokers it is a bit more involved but still, not exactly difficult.

Also - given the high reflexivity of this idea - that is, the more who believe in it and vote, the more likely it is to work - if you agree w/ the thesis/goal, I would appreciate all sharing on this one. 🙏🙏

OK, on to the 🧵, what are we playing for?

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

@gadkar @puppyeh1 Yes - it's obvious we will get the votes. Check existing shareholders and turnover since AA made initial approach. Come on board !

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

On an absolute, historical and peer basis, $HUM is very cheap. There is significant SoTP value, and scope to massively increase the pay-out ratio. It's also a reflexive situation, the more ppl that buy and vote for JR's motions, the higher the likelihood of success. Come on board

[Jeremy Raper @puppyeh1]

$HUM.AX Humm Group 🚨🚨

EGM has been called, please see below for all info related to the meeting.

https://t.co/ac6UbwxRpF

I plan to deliver superior, near- and mid-term value to shareholders if elected.

Let’s end the governance (and stock price) disaster now.

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

EGM finally called at $HUM. This is a stock going to $1.20. All aboard the @puppyeh1 train.

https://t.co/atsR1apUav

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

@JEChalmers How can you deliver these remarks and then on the same day allow Cosette to back out of its Mayne Pharma deal which will forever cast a shadow of Australia's corporate sovereignty?

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

@toy59496 Thanks. FPR has just come out of a transformation program (which SG Fleet also went through recently). Re the economy being weak - not sure where you're getting this from. Peers like SmartGroup saying economy fine, and last month private vehicles sales in Aus was up +7% y/y

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

@TonySage7237 Hi @TonySage7237 - smart move would be selling 10% of your stake in $CRML. Would provide $100m AUD cash, de risk balance sheet, prove value and give big liquidity for the buyback which is very accretive now

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

@SingularityRes @spaceX_cowboy @Uzocapital @pbcinc is the goat on this name

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

@puppyeh1 NTH next?

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

$CEPO up +22% on the below rumours - risk / reward of pre-deal SPAC's near trust value remain the best in the market - $TACO next?

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

Haven't posted for a while so thought I should post some stocks / sits that seems interesting:

1. The "SPAC trade" is back - interest rates falling + bullish sentiment means capital markets will re-open. Safest way to play this is via SPAC's trading close to trust value (>$10) - gives free optionality on upside in case market gets excited about a deal (similar to $CEP buying TwentyOne and immediately 5'xing). I like $CEPO, $MBAV, $RTACU and $TACO (due to decent sponsors with good track records, and hunting for deals in sectors that the market is currently excited about i.e. Crypto, AI). I treat these as a cash proxy (each earning 4% yields on trust value), so if their share prices remain constant, your margin of safety is increasing daily.

2. Mayne Pharma $MYX.AX / $MYX.AU: Merger arb trade which is trading at a >40% discount to terms due to the bidder claiming a MAC. A MAC has NEVER been successfully litigated in Australia - and seems v unlikely to be in this case given the spurious claims. Court case is in Sept - I expect to close at terms, or potentially a 5-10% price cut which is similar to what EQT / Metlifecare did back through Covid. V attractive IRR's regardless.

3. Qoria $QOR.AX / $QOR.AU - this is a high quality software asset trading at 4.4x CY ARR (3.6x 1YF). Was bid on last year at 60c (but got rejected - regardless that bidder still owns 10% of the stock so could re-approach). That covers your downside. The upside is that the company continues to grow ARR at >20% due to peers like Lightspeed and GoGuardian continuing to lose share (plus the EdTech market is growing >10%). Will inflect to profitability in FY26e which typically precipitates a significant re-rating. Similar assets in private makrets have been exchanging hands at 7-10x ARR so if no re-rate, expect a take-out at 80c over the N12M.

[AmadeusValue @AmadeusValue]

Haven't posted for a while so thought I should post some stocks / sits that seems interesting:

1. The "SPAC trade" is back - interest rates falling + bullish sentiment means capital markets will re-open. Safest way to play this is via SPAC's trading close to trust value (>$10) - gives free optionality on upside in case market gets excited about a deal (similar to $CEP buying TwentyOne and immediately 5'xing). I like $CEPO, $MBAV, $RTACU and $TACO (due to decent sponsors with good track records, and hunting for deals in sectors that the market is currently excited about i.e. Crypto, AI). I treat these as a cash proxy (each earning 4% yields on trust value), so if their share prices remain constant, your margin of safety is increasing daily.

2. Mayne Pharma $MYX.AX / $MYX.AU: Merger arb trade which is trading at a >40% discount to terms due to the bidder claiming a MAC. A MAC has NEVER been successfully litigated in Australia - and seems v unlikely to be in this case given the spurious claims. Court case is in Sept - I expect to close at terms, or potentially a 5-10% price cut which is similar to what EQT / Metlifecare did back through Covid. V attractive IRR's regardless.

3. Qoria $QOR.AX / $QOR.AU - this is a high quality software asset trading at 4.4x CY ARR (3.6x 1YF). Was bid on last year at 60c (but got rejected - regardless that bidder still owns 10% of the stock so could re-approach). That covers your downside. The upside is that the company continues to grow ARR at >20% due to peers like Lightspeed and GoGuardian continuing to lose share (plus the EdTech market is growing >10%). Will inflect to profitability in FY26e which typically precipitates a significant re-rating. Similar assets in private makrets have been exchanging hands at 7-10x ARR so if no re-rate, expect a take-out at 80c over the N12M.