Amily

Investor

[Amily @Amily_SS]

@Prophitcy $1K

[Amily @Amily_SS]

only one rate cut supported in 2025

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

FOMC MINUTES SUMMARY – DEC 2024 MEETING: OFFICIALS EXPECTED TO SLOW PACE OF RATE CUTS

RATE POLICY:
— A 25bps rate cut was broadly supported, with the majority favoring a cautious approach to further easing.
— Many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming
quarters
— Some participants noted it might be prudent to pause rate cuts if inflation readings remain above target or economic momentum persists.
— A few officials highlighted potential scenarios to accelerate cuts if inflation trends lower or labor market softens more than expected.
— Many emphasized the importance of carefully assessing the neutral rate and moving gradually to avoid policy missteps.

RISK OUTLOOK:
— Inflation risks remain balanced, though higher-than-expected recent readings warrant close monitoring.
— Labor market risks were deemed manageable, with no rapid deterioration expected.

ECONOMIC CONTEXT:
— Inflation progress has slowed but remains on a downward path; core PCE inflation was noted at 2.8% in October.
— Labor market conditions have eased slightly, but unemployment remains low at 4.2%.
— Participants expect solid GDP growth to continue, though some noted financial strains for lower-income households.

BALANCE SHEET AND TECHNICAL ADJUSTMENTS:
— Continued reduction in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities reaffirmed, with caps set at $25B and $35B per month, respectively.
— Discussed adjusting the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) rate to align with the bottom of the federal funds rate range.

ADDITIONAL NOTES:
— Fed emphasizes data-dependent decision-making, balancing risks to inflation and employment.
— Gradual easing remains the likely path, with flexibility to adapt if economic or inflation conditions shift.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The US economy added 227,000 jobs in November

The unemployment rate was 4.2%

Positive revisions: September is now +255,000 (vs +223,000)

October was revised up to +36,000 from +12,000

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

Here are tables of the ten largest ETFs with inflows (top) and outflows (bottom). The trends are interesting, and they tell us a lot about investor preferences in 2024.

Inflows
* Four of the top ten are S&P 500 trackers (VOO, IVV, SPY, SPLG). Another three are closely related (VTI, QQQ, and RSP)

* Two are the largest ETF bond funds by assets (BND and AGG)

* The only alternative is Bitcoin IBIT (Note that FBTC just missed this list at 14)

* These ten funds have almost $3 trillion in assets and over $300 Billion in flows (over $1 billion a business day this year).

Outflows
* Grayscale's GBTC and ETHE are on this list. Why? Fees matter!

* TQQQ is on this list despite being up ~59% YTD. But QQQ is in the top ten inflow but is up ~25%. Go figure

* Three are short-term Treasury funds (TFLO, SHY, VGSH), another two are credit (LQD and HYG)

* Two are value-oriented (IWD and USMV)

* These ten funds have $500 billion in assets and have seen outflows of $56 billion YTD

@EricBalchunas @JSeyff @NateGeraci

[Porter Stansberry @porterstansb]

Why is silver soaring? The banks are in trouble. These details are public: Berkshire (BRK) sold 260 million shares of $BAC at $41, for proceeds of $10.6B. But Berkshire still owns more than $30 billion worth of $BAC. But probably not for long: here's what's not public, yet.

[David 🥇🦍🥈the Ape @patato_ass]

👀 BIGGEST CUP & HANDLE in 44 YEARS!

Patience will pay off !
It will take time but is inevitable !

[Amily @Amily_SS]

Target rate cut 50bps possibility increased to 67% vs 25bps 33%

[David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian]

It is Fed day & everyone is focused on whether the Fed will cut today or not. As I have said forever,it doesn't matter what Fed does today because the bond market determines rates & rates are heading lower.I expect 10yr yields to fall to 2 1/2% this yr.Bullish for stocks & metals

[Alex Koh | BuyTrigger @alexkoh]

🔑 👇

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The market is easing for the Fed on the heels of a mild June CPI, where the big story is shelter disinflation.

A September cut is mostly priced in, as is a second cut by December. Market-implied probabilities of a third rate cut this year are rising https://t.co/WPw6LcWmsZ

[Samantha LaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc]

My Bloomberg Interview Notes - "Can The Rally Hold?"

Bloomberg hosts, Vonnie Quinn and Abigail Doolittle, have invited me on to talk about the macro backdrop I see forming as we head into the 2nd half of 2024.

In a 7 minute segment, no way can I get my perspective across, but in preparation for the interview Tuesday, I put together the following notes which I had sent to clients.

Here's the interview; Below the notes 🧵

https://t.co/h8rIY3gRGL

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Key Events This Week:

1. May Retail Sales data - Tuesday

2. Stock Market Closed, Juneteenth - Wednesday

3. June Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday

4. S&P US Manufacturing/Services PMI data - Friday

5. May Existing Homes Sales data - Friday

6. A total of 10 Fed speaker events this week

We have a short but busy week ahead.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

Goldman: S&P 500 path and valuation matrix: S&P 500 baseline forecast and four alternative scenarios

“Catch up,” the S&P 500 would end the year at 5900 (+9% from today)
• “Catch-down,” the S&P 500 would fall to 4700 (-13%)
• Continued mega-cap exceptionalism would lift the index to 6300 (+16%)
• Recession fears would push the index down to 4800 (-12%)

[John Kicklighter @JohnKicklighter]

Overall from the #FOMC SEP forecasts:

- Rate forecast (2024) 5.1% from 4.6%
- Rate forecast (2025) 4.1% from 3.9%
- Rate forecast (2026) 3.1% stays
- GDP (2024) 2.1% stays
- Jobless Rate (2024) 4.0% stays
- PCE (2024) 2.6% from 2.4%
- Core PCE (2024) 2.8% from 2.6%

[Amily @Amily_SS]

no more than one cut this year

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

To translate this:

Four Fed officials see no rate cuts this year, up from two officials in the March projections

Seven see one cut, while eight see two cuts.

This means a narrow majority sees no more than one cut this year as a base-case.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Inflation forecasters (the ones who sweat the second and sometimes third decimal place) see the core CPI posting roughly a similar increase in May as in April

An increase of 0.28% in the core CPI would lower the y/y rate to 3.5%

[Jesse Cohen @JesseCohenInv]

🇺🇸🇺🇸 Key Events This Week:

1. $NVDA 10-For-1 Stock Split - Monday

2. $AAPL WWDC Event - Monday

3. $ORCL Earnings - Tuesday

4. U.S. CPI Inflation - Wednesday

5. Fed Policy Decision - Wednesday

6. FOMC Dot-Plot - Wednesday

7. Powell Press Conference - Wednesday

8. $AVGO Earnings - Wednesday

9. U.S. PPI Inflation - Thursday

10. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday

11. $TSLA Annual Meeting - Thursday

12. Consumer Sentiment - Friday

$SPY $QQQ 🇺🇸 🇺🇸

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Federal regulators made a deal allowing them to proceed with antitrust investigations into Microsoft, $MSFT, OpenAI and Nvidia, $NVDA, in the AI industry, per NYT.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) saw a big upward revision in Q1

This series has been prone to some large revisions

Jan is now +3.3% (vs prev 3%)
Feb: +3.1% (vs 2.7%)
Mar: +2.9 (vs 2.6%)

April was 2.8% https://t.co/84wzo4Vk6i

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The core PCE price index rose 0.25% in April (it rounded down to 0.2% because it was 0.249%)

Jan-March figures were revised down ever so slightly.

The 12-month change was 2.75%, a three-year low

The 6-month annualized rate was 3.18%, the highest since July