Sensex neared an all-time high this week. No trade deal signed. No IT rally. No rate cut.
India – Signal Over Noise 🇮🇳 A thread 🧵
Week ending 31st July 2026
Hope you have a great weekend ahead! 👍🏽
This friend of mine was on deputation to her organisation in Paris in the early 2000s, so 20+ years ago. Her territory was the whole of Europe.
Being a thoughtful and curious person, one of her observations was, "We take it for granted that we would be materially doing better than our parents but when I travel around Western Europe in countries like France and Germany, I see that young people there don't have this expectation"
This was something that we took so much for granted back then that we didn't even consciously think about it - in spite of not coming from anywhere near underprivileged backgrounds.
Both my parents were professional academics. Her father was a senior Civil servant.
Yet pretty early in our careers our earnings exceeded those of our parents, as did our lifestyle. For example, my first flight was only after I myself started working.
But look around you and the young people now, even those in professional colleges, cannot take for granted a lifestyle better than that of their parents.
And remember France and Germany were already at 30,000 Euros per capita income - plateauing at that stage is a whole different thing then plateauing where we are today - THAT is a disaster.
Let alone having great employment opportunities, youth unemployment is actually higher for Indians with college education - and even many from premier Institutes do not find jobs.
It is a big change... The reverse of what our generation saw early in our careers
When we started off in the 1980s, there was no trajectory that would make a salaried professional reasonably wealthy even by the end of their careers.
That changed post the 1991 liberalization. Salaries in year 2000 were at a whole different level from where they were in the mid 80s. It only accelerated with the IT services boom towards the end of the 90s.
The private banks, the wealth managers today have a clientele that consists not just of business owners but a considerable chunk of salaried professionals. That was pretty much unthinkable when we started working.
This is one of the reasons why I always take any 'Secrets of My success' narrative with more than a pinch of salt.
So much of success is about being in the right place at the right time. Our generation was pretty much there...even though most of us will try to attribute our success to hard work, our inherent smartness and merit 😊
Now the wheel seems to have turned again, did the young being unsure of their future, let alone be assured of doing better than their parents.
HDFC Bank-MSRDC Case: @AmitTandon_in & @ParekhAshvin weigh in.
Parekh says board's decision solid basis for them to proceed with CEO reappointment application.
Tandon says for investors, "means" are as important as "ends," advocates for bank to prioritize rebuilding trust.
#Opinion | As boards confront #AI, geopolitical risks and reputational challenges, @AmitTandon_in writes that effectiveness is increasingly measured by how boards function rather than how they are structured.
https://t.co/A8qMtPhlwv
"Life is too short, Proust is too long; Life is too long and Proust (In Search of Lost Time), is too short." Proust in the age of TikTok https://t.co/xVzVM0V5sa via @ft
📢Thirty-five years ago, on July 24, 1991, in his Budget speech, Dr. Manmohan Singh quoted Victor Hugo, “No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come.” The idea was economic freedom for Indians. It meant dismantling the License-Permit-Raj, allowing market prices, free trade, and pursuing rapid economic growth in a country plagued by poverty and self-imposed shortages. 🧵1/n
Met Office chief Penny Endersby: ‘You can't lobby physics....the climate still exists and climate change still exists' #LunchwithFT https://t.co/g61uVYRnk8 via @ft
Brent crude crossed $100 on Thursday for the first time in two months. The Nifty lost the 24,000 mark the same day. Oil is back as India's central macro risk.
India – Signal Over Noise 🇮🇳 A thread 🧵
Week ending: 24th July, 2026
Hope you have a great weekend ahead! 👍🏽
A working paper “Public Infrastructure for Measuring Welfare”, by Ravi Bapna of the Univ. of Minnesota at a recent NCAER conference, suggested that payment data was better at predicting consumption effects of infrastructure than nighttime satellite data.https://t.co/NRQfi2EdlQ
Retail inflation just broke a 17-month streak, closing above the RBI's 4% target in June.
India – Signal Over Noise 🇮🇳 A thread 🧵
Week Ending 17th July, 2026
Have a great weekend ahead! 👍🏽
One sentence from Washington erased ₹9 lakh crore of Indian market value on July 8. Two sessions later, most of it was back.
India – Signal Over Noise 🇮🇳 A thread 🧵
Week Ending: 10th July 2026
Have a fabulous weekend ahead! 👍
IS THE ECONOMIST ALWAYS WRONG?
Scandalously, in some circles @TheEconomist has a reputation as a contrarian indicator. This week we fessed up to getting a big call on oil prices from April wrong.
Obviously our goal is not perfectly-hedged (and perfectly boring) predictive accuracy: often it is to stimulate, provoke, and challenge. But I did want to test that wider allegation, so I ran a series of LLM scorers across our full leader database since 2000 (7,000 leaders in all.)
You can see the results in the chart below: each dot is one of the 1,400 leaders where we identified concrete and falsifiable predictions that were central to the argument. Higher = more accurate, further to the right = more contrarian.
We do well, unsurprisingly, when aligned with conventional wisdom. We often do worse when truly out on a limb. But actually, on average, we are a bit likelier to be right than wrong on our somewhat-out-of-consensus calls. All round, a respectable performance.
And as @ecurrnomics points out an accompanying leader, there is no shame at all in being beaten by the market: as good free-marketers we believe deeply in the aggregated wisdom of prices.
Take a look at my piece here, which includes a canter through our best and worst calls of the last quarter-century: https://t.co/WyKqangFrE
We extend a warm welcome to H.E. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to India. We have had the honor to walk together on the journey of strengthening #CorporateGovernance@takaichi_sanae@JPN_PMO@PMOIndia
https://t.co/PGwYVNfiSy
It’s 34 degrees in London & Brits are burning; rail tracks melting,restaurants turning off fryers etc.
As my wife asked : how did these wimps manage to rule super hot India for so long in their heavy uniforms & elaborate tailcoats?
This is cooler than Indian summers
Crude fell ~20% from its 2026 high. The Nifty had its best week in months, +1.65% to 24,013. The war scare broke and capital came back.
India – Signal Over Noise 🇮🇳 A thread 🧵
Have a fabulous weekend ahead! 👍