The $TSLA debate is not about Tesla robotaxi vs Waymo or Zoox, or whether TSLA robotaxi will work at 99.99% efficacy. Of course it will work or Elon wouldn’t be moving forward with the Austin robotaxi launch today.
The question - which bulls painfully avoid - is when others master general unsupervised autonomy (I have long said autonomy is table stakes for all automobile mnfrs) what valuation will be attached to TSLA autonomy when it has to split the autonomous ride hailing market with others? $GOOG, $AMZN, $BIDU, $PONY, $BYDDY, $NVDA are not going away. Very few bulls put much thought into the valuation question.
“Tesla will have, I don’t know,” Elon Musk mused in a recent conference call with investors, ”99% market share or something ridiculous.” Really?
This is the same argument I made to TSLA bulls in 2021 when everyone told me TSLA would be producing 20M EVs per year by 2030, equal to a 25% overall share (current 2030 WS est 3.7M, 4.6% share) and I made similar arguments about competition, and was told $TSLA had no competition. History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes.
NEWS: 15,500 new Teslas were insured in China last week, the best week of Q2 2025 so far.
• Mar 31–Apr 6: 3,600
• Apr 7–13: 5,400
• Apr 14–20: 6,780
• Apr 21–27: 10,300
• Apr 28–May 4: 7,300
• May 5–11: 3,070
• May 12–18: 11,130
• May 19–25: 11,000
• May 26–Jun 1: 13,000
• Jun 2–8: 8,600
• Jun 9–15: 15,500
Apple couldn’t make AirPower work, gave up on the electric car, launched a $3,500 headset no one wanted, still hasn’t figured out Siri, and is years behind in AI. So what’s their master plan? Rename iOS 19 to iOS 26, add a few see-through icons, and call it “the biggest update ever”
Meanwhile Elon Musk is building self-driving cars, independent energy, humanoid robots, reusable rockets, underground transport, global internet, advanced AI, brain-computer tech and actually changing the world.