FPL Nik

Trying to help #FPL managers one data point at a time.

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

If anyone is in need of some last minute WC32 drafts, wants to check underlying xG predictions, or xPts breakdowns, my xPts model is now live!

Check out https://t.co/jRmmVNsyfA and let me know what you think!

#FPL #FPLCommunity

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

@afcsakamundish Won't be doing xPts predictions unfortunately. Takes a while to build the team strength and player level data

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

Taking a stab at playing WC Fantasy

🔸30% chance of both Spain and Switzerland CS
🔸8 different mid/forwards for captaincy
🔸Defenders all finish playing before Kane + Bruno + James means I don't need to sub in defenders who could get negative points

#WCFantasy #WorldCupFantasy

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

@Filthy_Foden Yeah that strat makes the most sense to me

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

GW25 my only triple Arsenal clean sheet of the season!

Had a blast tripling up on low EO Palace and Brentford defenders and owning a 1% EO 2.97 npxG Schade hattrick! Will be going for a more controlled explosive approach to differentials and covariance next season.

Stay tuned!

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

🌍 15k OR finish

Not close at all to my top 50 OR finish last season, but 5x straight top 100k finishes for my xPts model!

🧵Below are some differential wins and some covariance highlights after being the first manager to solve using covariance the whole season!

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

GW14 had to wait a while until another triple clean sheet, but the Palace boys delivered again. Ditched Munoz and Richards in GW9 and 10 but ended up back on the wingback and double defcon threats in GW14.

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

A way too early look at an aggressive covariance driven FH34 team! Double Arsenal and Spurs defence with a Liverpool triple up.

#FPL #FPLCommunity

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

@FPLBroccoli @formispermanent @FPL_Brandon The first team is solved within an optimal covariance setting (Doesn't sacrifice too much xPts to maximize covariance). The second team sacrifices too much xPts. Covariance increases extreme outcomes, but if average xPts is too low then it's harder to reach that extreme ceiling.

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

@FPL_Brandon Comes down to xMinutes, Rodri 90 mins in his last 5 PL games, Cherki mins more volatile

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

For those Covariancemaxxing on FH33 here's what the extreme team would look like. Gives up around 4 xPts by not owning City defenders + DCL and going 5 atb, so make sure to team stack carefully and not lose sight of the xPts!

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

https://t.co/xAbxPKmuL3 FH33 Covariance Draft!

Below is an optimal FH33 draft which was solved using covariance which rewards stacking players from the same team (especially defensively) and punishes players on opposing teams (especially attackers vs defenders)!

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

📊 Expected Points Distribution! 📊

If you want to check out how explosive or stable your player's points might be for DGW33, check it out at https://t.co/jRmmVNt658!

#FPL #FPLCommunity

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

@FPL_Bronx Thanks for the kind words Thomas and all your feedback!

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

If anyone is interested in my xPts model and wants another opinion on chip strategy and future transfers, drop me a DM or comment below and I will give you access to my new website that is in beta testing!

#FPL #FPLCommunity

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

For those planning on WC32, BB33 and FH34, here is the optimal WC32 draft based on my xPts model!

#FPL #FPLCommunity

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

Updated optimal WC32 draft now that Arsenal won't double from my xPts model!

#FPL #FPLCommunity

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

@JoseCarrol5140 De Cuyper predominantly plays left back instead of right back, and has been benched the last 7 matches. Small risk of Veltman starting right back but that's why Wieffer minutes are 81 instead of 90 this GW

[FPL Nik @AnalystNik11]

After 2 FA Cup matches, here is an optimal WC32 draft from my xPts model!

#FPL #FPLCommunity