@projectmracing I hope one of the developers sees this post. After update 2.0 the vibration for tire traction on the ps5 dualsense controller is completely gone. Please fix it with next update.
BIG BANKS ARE COMING TO BITCOIN (last 3 months)
Citi:
Launching Bitcoin custody, wallet & key management to integrate BTC into tradfi this year
Morgan Stanley:
- To launch its own Bitcoin Trust/ETF (1st major bank to file)
- Bitcoin-supporting digital wallet in 2026
- Bitcoin trading to launch in 2026
- Lending, yield & full custody services on the way
JP Morgan:
- Exploring Bitcoin & crypto trading for institutional clients
- CEO Jamie Dimon admits he was wrong and that “Bitcoin is real” & will be used by all
Goldman Sachs:
- Buys $1.1 billion worth of Bitcoin (filing)
- CEO David Solomon announces he owns a small amount of Bitcoin
Standard Chartered:
- Launching prime brokerage accounts for Bitcoin trading
UBS:
- To launch Bitcoin trading to select private banking clients
Danske Bank:
Denmark’s largest bank Danske Bank announces offering Bitcoin & crypto ETPs to investors
🇺🇸 JPMORGAN CEO JAMIE DIMON JUST SHOCKED NATIONAL TV:
“CRYPTO IS SUPERIOR TO THE CURRENT FINANCIAL SYSTEM.”
HE SAYS THE EXPERIMENT IS DONE — THIS IS NOW REAL.
IS THIS THE BIGGEST SHIFT YET? 🔥
The Bear Market only ends when the STH Realized Price crosses below the LTH Realized Price.
And the Bull Market begins when the STH Realized Price crosses back above it.**
This is one of the cleanest and most reliable cycle signals in Bitcoin.
No guessing.
No “market vibes.”
Just pure holder behavior.
🔴 End of the Bear Market
Happens when STH Realized Price drops below LTH.
This shows short-term holders capitulated, speculation was flushed out, and the market is shifting into a real accumulation phase.
🟢 Start of the Bull Market
Occurs when STH Realized Price crosses back above LTH.
That’s when new capital starts flowing in, traders’ cost basis rises above long-term holders’, and the trend flips with strength.
Simple, powerful, historically accurate.
To make this visual and automatic, we built the
STH vs LTH Market Signal (Realized Price)on Alphractal.
Automatic cross detection.
Cycle markers.
A clean read of how holders are behaving beneath the surface.
If you want to understand when the market truly shifts… this is the chart.
https://t.co/1cjMJtIoAw — last chance to get 70% off on all plans.
Bitcoin has not topped.
In fact, it has nowhere near topped.
And I really want to try and help as many of you as possible understand why.
Just because Bitcoin has followed a 4 year cycle so far, does not mean it will simply just do it again.
And that is because it is not the 4 year cycle that you think you know that matters....
What actually matters is what is underneath that 4 year cycle, and what has made it behave in the way it has.
Bitcoin does not inherently have a 4 year cycle built into its code.
But what it has been doing, and is still doing, is being directed by the business/liquidity cycle.
Here is what you need to understand.
Bitcoin is a literal pressure valve for liquidity.
It is not a company, it does not earn revenue...
It is a vessel of global liquidity, and the more liquidity, the more room it has to move.
The less liquidity, the less more it has to move and the more fragile those moves are.
At the base of all of this is the business cycle.
This is essentially the cycle that creates "boom and bust".
Expansion and contraction.
And this is underpinned by liquidity.
It comes down to a very simple equation.
Easing liquidity = growth = business expansion = risk assets rise
Tightening liquidity = regression = business contraction = risk assets struggle
And right now, just as I have highlighted on this chart, we are currently within the largest business cycle contraction ever.
This is the reason BTC has not had any true expansion this cycle, and why it has pushed, crabbed, retraced... pushed, crabbed, retraced.
Because there has simply not been enough liquidity for it to be able to do so.
What has made this cycle even more confusing is that Bitcoin HAS pushed, whereas in other cycles, whilst the business cycle was contracting, it didn't push at all.
And this is because we have had Institutional and government adoption.
This pairing of situations... longest business cycle contraction and insto and gov adoption of BTC, has confused everyone.
The bottom line is that we are not going to stay in a contracting business cycle much longer... it is already a record length.
And liquidity is about to begin easing again from December 1st.
Remember, liquidity leads
Business cycle follows
Risk assets rise
We are simply not entering into a prolonged bear market on the eve of liquidity and business expansion.
It has driven every financial cycle since fiat has been the way it has.
If you are betting on a bear market, you are betting against liquidity and the business cycle.
And its never been wrong.
WE FINALLY KNOW WHY THE MARKET CRASHED ON 10 OCTOBER AND WHY IT JUST CANT BOUNCE!
We never really understood why the big crypto crash started on October 10th and why we couldn't even get a single meaningful bounce!
Today the answer seem simple!
Let me break it down.
1. DAT's like MSTR, BMNR and others have been one of 2 big buyers that powered this cycle.
2. The DAT game is simple, you need to be the biggest so that you get into the big indices and when you do, passive index trackers are forced to buy large amounts of your stock. As they do you get bigger and get added to more indices, and so the cycle perpetuates.
3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".
4. If they are "funds" they are not included in passive indexing. why, because this creates a circular loop. The fund buys assets , gets bigger and then is included in more indices and buys more assets.
5. The expected ruling will be announced on 15 January 2026 and if this does pass, the companies like MSTR will be automatically removed from all indices.
6. If this happens it would mean that all the pension funds, normal funds and all other passive index holders would dump their MSTR automatically.
7. It would also mean that going forward they would never be included and as such , one of the big reasons why they actually exist would disappear.
8 . Since DATs have been powering this cycle and have been most the buying pressure, the smart money saw this immediately after the 10TH of October announcement and positioned accordingly.
9. The 10TH of October wasn't a coincidence after all - It was smart money seeing a big risk to crypto and the current market structure.
10. The market will probably continue to dum until around the end of December and if the announcement is negative, we will get a huge dump in preparation for the removal from the indices.
11. On the other hand , if it is positive , the bull market is back!!
I broke this down on a 10 minute video this morning and I will leave a link in the next tweet!
If you enjoyed this analysis, please retweet and follow this account!
Here is what you all need to understand.
I'm going to explain this in detail for you so you know where we are, and why this is nothing like 2021.
Bitcoin, and the rest of the market, are liquidity vessels.
Their cycles are NOT dependant on an arbitrary 4 year number.
But they ARE dependant on the wider liquidity and business cycle, which is totally different this time.
And you can see here on this chart that BTC mirrors exactly the:
- COPPER/GOLD chart
- ISM/PMI chart
So what are these?
The COPPER/GOLD chart is one of the best indicators to understand that state of the economy.
COPPER is one of the most widely used metals on Earth for almost all form of building and development.
When COPPER is pushing higher, it is because the economy is expanding and the demand for it is high.
GOLD, is used as a hedge and safety trade, and when that is expanding, it is because the global market is shaky and people are keen for too much risk.
What this means overall is that when COPPER/GOLD goes up, COPPER is stronger because the demand for that is higher(expansion globally) and GOLD is trending lower, because everyone is more risk on.
You can see very clearly that when COPPER/GOLD goes up, BTC moves at the same time and always has.
At the bottom of the chart we have the ISM/PMI, which is the index used to understand whether the economy is expanding or contracting.
Historically, when this is below 50, like it is now, the economy is contracting.
When this happens, as you can see, COPPER/GOLD goes down and so does BTC.
Literally in unison.
And right now, we are in the longest contraction of PMI ever recorded.
When PMI ticks over 50, we enter expansion and COPPER/GOLD also goes up... and yes, so does BTC.
So what does this tell us?
Well, look at 2021.
COPPER/GOLD had been expanding for months and was topping out, just like PMI.
In 2021 we were at the peak of the business cycle and only massive contraction lay ahead.
Right now, COPPER/GOLD is bottoming and PMI is grinding up towards 50+.
All at the same time as we are about to come out of the longest liquidity contraction ever, and into easing.
Ask yourself...
Do you think this is all a coincidence?
That this has been the longest contraction cycle, and the longest COPPER/GOLD and PMI contraction also?
No, it is not.
And that is because ALL of this is linked.
The expansion phase of this liquidity/business cycle has not even properly got underway yet, and you can see this with your own two eyes looking at this chart.
The fact here is that BTC has been pushing higher in an overall contracting global environment, and as i keep saying, the only thing that has been pushing it higher has been institutions and government adoption.
The reason it is weak, totally different to any other bull market, and cannot sustain a true pump, whilst the altcoin market has been down only is because of what I have just told you here.
Todays conditions could not be more different to 2021...
I have made this crystal clear for you in this and many other of my posts.
If you think you are gonna get a 2022 bear market from here and you can sell or your bags now, add a massive 50x short, ride it easy, then chuck your profits into BTC at 75% down...
You're fucked.
Massive expansion is what lies ahead.
Not a deep bear market.
A sign of intelligence is receiving new information and being able to change your mind
2018: Harvard says Bitcoin is more likely to hit $100 than $100K.
Today… 👇