(Financial) Model Citizen

23 | 7 figures closed CRE brokerage in college | Senior Alternatives Analyst

[Braxton Barker @BraxBarker]

To my younger followers who have had unconventional, tough starts to their real estate careers:

I was fired from my first job out of graduate school (June 2022), days before my start date, after I had moved 1,000 miles away from home, because the employer learned I wasn't vaccinated for COVID.

I scrambled and found a job with a small REPE shop running point on sourcing deals in the southeast. At 22. With no experience or data (shop did not want to pay for any data).

After underwriting 100s of deals with little guidance, a lot of "No", and a six figure EMD loss on a deal we bailed on, my "position was eliminated" (March 2023).

Sacked twice within 12 months.

After this, I partnered with two buddies to be outsourced analysts for GPs / developers. The market was dead. We starved for 6 months and I went $20k into credit card debt trying to build this business.

I felt like an idiot every day. I was tired of getting kicked in the teeth. I wanted to quit and go find a job. My partners convinced me otherwise and I am forever grateful for that.

In October of 2023, the tides turned and we secured our first retainer client. Then we secured 5 more retainers the next month, and our first five figure project in December.

Now we do a modest 5-figure MRR and are looking to hire our first employee by EOY.

All this to say, I am one of many anecdotes providing evidence that it does get better if you just keep pushing.

You can think and work your way out of where you are. Don't quit.

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@BraxBarker Deserved, proud of you and the team

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@BraxBarker After a certain AUM amount this is all of them

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@JTMartingCRE Yes

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@JTMartingCRE I like the word stressed more than dead

Multi will see some of what those other product types did

Far from dead but maybe a good amount of assets will be victims of bad timing and overzealous underwriting

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@michaelwatson2 Nice! New neighbors

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@JTMartingCRE 2024 will be crazier I bet

Hell of a year!

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

Sent this out yesterday

A lot of great feedback and questions

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

Hell of a year in the books

A year ago I was graduating, time flies

Researched over $80B in RE funds and coinvestments this year

Putting out a quick write up of my activity, really just meant to reach out to folks and keep convos going

Let me know if interested

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@accruedpreff Easy

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

Hell of a year in the books

A year ago I was graduating, time flies

Researched over $80B in RE funds and coinvestments this year

Putting out a quick write up of my activity, really just meant to reach out to folks and keep convos going

Let me know if interested

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@BraxBarker 🔥🔥

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

“Real estate is back”

Might end up being code for your ability to operate successfully is heavily reliant on your interest rate being zero

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@HUDMultifamily At this point you’re just a consultant by title

You’re actually just lead consultant support

Main job function is research

If you’re that young trying to actually “consult” your ego is probably huge

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@JTMartingCRE My favorite part about class was stepping out of one to take a phone call

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

@kenashley Just got through this. Airport to Buckhead in ~50 minutes

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

Generally, the Funds in CRE that are outperforming peers now were the ones that took write downs early

Its allowing them to take less marks or nudge values up in the 2H of 23-early 24

Also gives them the added benefit of “getting over the hump” quicker

Much better optics

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

Private credit party still going strong

Sensing a preference towards new vintages

Some funds that were already active are spending more time on problem assets than on the current opportunity set

Good strategy, just bad timing

New credit funds likely to outperform

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

Spoke with an Atlanta based multifamily developer today, founded a firm <5 years ago

Said they were having fun until ~4Q22

Switched to survival mode and praying for good news in 2025

Seems to be the common theme

[(Financial) Model Citizen @AnalystTweets]

Office went from a significant portion of portfolio construction to <10% in a lot of new fund rollouts for obvious reasons

The name of the game for the new sleeve is flight to quality

If there’s even a value-add play to be had in office it requires significant upgrades