*Professional Accountant w. background in Quant. Finance, Theoretical Physics & Mathematics*Bitcoin*Stocks*FX*Don't know what is going to happen next*Anatta*
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What I love about the market
It’s simply confluence support levels and Fibonacci targets
Because all humans behave like sheep.
We all think alike
Regardless of what country or culture you are in, every investors behaves the same way.
I’m holding
$ETH to $9000
$HIMS to $137
$ASTS to $150
$OSCR to $40
$UNH to $600
$NVO to $200
$ZETA to $45
$JD to $108
$BIDU to $355
$BABA to $330
Everything here has at least +100% upside in their current cycle
Which is why I’m happy to hold their position through 2026 until targets are met
I don’t make the rules
Their targets are a product of their fundamentals and technicals
Best case scenario is that we see a fast (but painful) correction and it’s out of the way quickly
This correction started on the 10th of October with Trumps Tantrum Tariff on China
So we are already 5 months into this
Corrections typically take 9 months on average
But they have been faster in recent history
Cash is and always will be King
I think every investor should read this letter from Jeff Bezos when Amazon's stock fell -80% back in 2000.
It will teach you a lot about emotional discipline & irrational markets:
$TE chart update
We are in a clear downtrend now, with the previous low being cut through. We are back at the breakout from December
A lot of risk right now due to investor fears and upcoming binary earnings event. Many bulls would see this as a very good opportunity.
$HOOD chart
The faster it goes up, the larger the pullback. On the bright side, there is a good possibility it is reaching a bottom soon as it is no longer at an extreme valuation.
Around $60 is the key level to watch here.
ngl $ZETA dropping below $16 is quite bad for the short term price action...
It's probably just mass triggering a bunch of algo's to sell even more now. Let's see how the day closes though.
I am definitely interested in buying if it goes lower.
The Dow Jones topped in early 2018 and early 2022.
From early 2018 to early 2022, DJI increased 37%.
From early 2022 to early 2026, DJI is up 37%.
What are the chances that while everyone cheerleads DJI hitting 50,000, it ends up marking the top for a while?
A 20% drop from here, which is what happened in prior cycles (excluding the pandemic), would put DJI at 40,000
$HIMS is a good case study in why you should never become emotionally attached to a stock.
Always stay open-minded and be willing to change your thesis when the facts change.
And just as important, don’t let certain accounts here brainwash you into ignoring the warning signs.
$GRAB
An interesting opportunity here if you like the company/fundamentals. The stock has been oversold for the past few months and experienced a meaningful pullback from ATHs. It's a solid company growing 20%+ YoY and very high institutional + inside ownership.
So far, the previous support levels have not been holding but we are now approaching near the bottom technical-wise. Anything lower than $3.6 would probably imply that the fundamentals are broken, their earnings report is coming out next week on the 11th.
Ideally, we want to see it break out of this downward trend and start a new move up soon. However, it could also just consolidate for a while around this level (depending on market conditions).
I own a position and holding long. Don't expect 10x returns, but I believe this company can offer good upside as we approach the bottom of a pullback. Also nice to have some emerging markets exposure, potentially taking advantage of the weakening US dollar.
$OSCR has been a roller coaster ride for 2 years
You basically made $0 unless you swing traded or took profits at every rally. Very frustrating to hold while fundamentals and growth continue to improve.
However, the last time it was at this price... it bounced all the way above $20. This is a good time to buy if you believe in the company and their management's ability to navigate this difficult period. They are being priced for the worst right now.
I hold a decently sized position with a $15 average. I'm feeling pretty bullish about their upcoming earnings on Feb 10th next week.
Risk management is such an important lesson.
If you're down 50%, you need a 100% gain just to break even. Prioritize protecting capital rather than going all in and hoping for a bounce. Theres no need to rush if you have time on your side. Opportunities are everywhere even if you miss certain moves.
Don't get used to V-shape recoveries because it won't always happen for the next 20+ years of investing. Find cheap entries and know what you own.
The h-clock is synchronized with the 525-days strategy.
1. Sell 525 days after halving.
2. Buy 525 days before the next halving.
You can use https://t.co/flpghH78tw to calculate 525 days before halving #5: 7027 - 525 = 6502 days since genesis.
Ponzi adjacent innit.
There is no new paradigm.
"There is no version of inaction that makes the common stock an appealing buy. Management has no safe choices - only different paths to destroying shareholder value."
$MSTR
One of the biggest mistakes that many investors have made betting on mania in crypto is that they never really seem to be able to articulate a different view.
When their view does not pan out on the timeframe they gave, they change the timeline and use different reasons for why it will happen.
Last year the reason was M2 and how BTC had to follow M2 (even though BTC always tops before M2).
This year many use the ISM the same way they used M2 last year.
No matter your position, you can always find a narrative to try and support it.
It’s important to recognize that this is just narrative chasing.
Narrative follows price, not the other way around.
You can use the price trends to develop a narrative, but you cannot use a narrative to develop the price trend.
Unfortunately, because the mania predictions are typically never challenged, it causes a lot of people to hold useless investments as they are always chasing the next narrative that gives them hope.
My recommendation is to stop focusing on narratives and instead focus on actual price trends in the market.
Once you do that, you will also likely come to the same conclusions that the news does not matter and that narratives follow price.