@TreasuryBonds1 Foreign central banks haven't dumped US treasuries, but it's worth noticing that their own balance sheets have also grown at a fast pace since 2008, and the proportion of US treasuries as reserve asset has gone down substantially.
Ranvir Shorey is a bitter, middle-aged keyboard warrior who peaked as a supporting actor two decades ago and has since turned online toxicity into his full-time personality.
@RanvirShorey just proved it again: a woman @navya17012001 criticises his viral Gen-Z reel, and this 50-something “truth-before-kindness” clown screenshots her photo, tells her to keep the phone away from her mouth, drops Hindi abuse, and body-shames her face like a rejected uncle on a dating app. Then he deletes the post, pretends he’s the victim, and lectures everyone that “if you abuse me you get it back with interest.” Classic coward playbook.
This isn’t an isolated slip. It’s the entire brand. Shorey lives for crude personal attacks, gendered filth, and performative outrage while hiding behind “I’m just matching energy.”
His career is a long list of side roles and nostalgia reels because actual leading-man talent never materialised. Instead of improving his craft, he compensates by being Bollywood’s most dedicated online seether—spitting venom, deleting evidence, then crying free speech.
Bollywood, take note: stop working with this man. No more cameos, no more ensemble gigs, no more “he’s so real and outspoken” excuses. Collaborating with someone who body-shames random women online and treats social media like a personal sewer only legitimises the toxicity. Producers, directors, co-stars—cut him loose. Let the chronic troll sit with his deleted screenshots and dwindling relevance. The industry already has enough bitter has-beens; it doesn’t need another one poisoning the air.
The US Treasury has to refinance $9.7 trillion of debt this year. Not borrow new money. Just roll over what’s already there.
That is a third of the entire publicly held debt hitting the market in twelve months, at whatever rate the market decides to charge, and the consensus response from people who should know better is still “we’ll grow into it.”
We won’t. And I’d bet most of the people saying it have never watched a bond market decide it’s done being polite.
The math is not complicated. Debt-to-GDP only falls when nominal growth beats the average interest rate on the debt and you aren’t running a primary deficit on top of it. We fail both. The average rate on marketable Treasury debt is about 3.35%, up from 1.54% five years ago, and it climbs every single month as the cheap COVID-era paper matures and gets replaced at today’s yields. Nobody has to vote for that. It happens automatically.
Interest cost crossed $970 billion last year and passes a trillion now. Projected to hit $2.1 trillion by 2036. Sixteen trillion in interest over the decade, money that buys nothing, builds nothing, funds nothing. It already eats 18.5% of every dollar of federal revenue and goes to a quarter of revenue within ten years. It is the fastest-growing line in the budget and it grows in a straight line regardless of who wins any election between now and then.
Here is what should terrify you. CBO has debt going from 101% to 120% of GDP by 2036 with deficits running 5.8% of GDP right now. That projection assumes eleven straight years without a recession. Zero contraction. Ever. That is the good case.
Now think about what an actual recession does to that fraction. Revenue collapses. Automatic stabilizers fire. Deficits blow out to 10%+ overnight while the denominator shrinks underneath you. The ratio doesn’t drift higher, it gaps.
And it never comes back. 2007 we were at 35%. 2012, 70%. 2019, 79%. 2021, over 100%. Every crisis resets the floor and the growth everyone promised has never once clawed back a single point of it. The ratio only ratchets one direction.
Don’t bring up post-WWII. We paid that down with capped yields, a captive domestic bond market, a baby boom, and a world that had just bombed its own factories flat. Don’t bring up Japan either. Domestic savers, a central bank warehousing the curve, a current account surplus. We have foreign creditors with options and twin deficits.
Moody’s already pulled the last AAA in 2025, first downgrade since 1917. The signal is out there.
Debt compounds mechanically. Growth is a choice the market makes for you, and eventually it stops choosing.
@Macrobysunil Sunil - in your expert opinion, which assets will get propped up because of this liquidity?
US Bonds / US equities / precious metals / EM equities?
@jugeshinder Robbie - it's a hairbrained tweet and you are going to get free macroeconomics 101 lessons here as a response. So I will save my time on typing the same!
🚨 The account @JaipurDialogues is posting pictures of girls (many are MINORS) from Delhi protests and encouraging followers to “find” & go after them
@DelhiPolice@Cyberdost@GoI_MeitY@MinistryWCD please urgently take note of cyber stalking, bullying, doxxing of girls (minors)
i have been watching and listening to his media bites again and again. i don't know mohammad irfan personally. but every time he speaks, he leaves behind a silence that's difficult to shake off. he represents an india that millions still inhabit. the india beyond our metropolitan bubbles, beyond expressways, airports and glass towers. the india of villages, slums and forgotten settlements, where deprivation isn't an exception; it's inherited. generation after generation.
what moves you isn't just the hardship he describes. it's the complete absence of bitterness. there is no self-pity, no performative anger, no attempt to sensationalize his pain. he speaks with remarkable dignity, asking for things that should never have been extraordinary in the first place. good schools, functioning hospitals, decent roads, employment, clean water and a life of dignity. and he isn't asking only for himself. every sentence carries the weight of countless others whose lives look exactly like his.
perhaps this is also why debates around reservation often miss the point.
reservation was never designed to compensate for poverty alone. it exists because generations of social exclusion have produced generations of unequal opportunity. merit does not emerge in a vacuum. it is shaped by the school one attends, the nutrition one receives, the neighbourhood one grows up in, the discrimination one faces and the opportunities one is denied. when disadvantage itself is inherited, equality cannot be measured only at the finish line. and his story is not merely about economic hardship. it is about what decades of unequal development look like through the eyes of someone who still manages to smile. he speaks without ideology or slogans. he simply narrates life as he has lived it. and somehow, that simplicity makes his words far more powerful than any political speech.
when the interview ends, nothing really ends for mohammad irfan. the cameras leave. the headlines move on. social media finds its next outrage. but he returns to the same road, the same neighbourhood, the same uncertainty and the same struggle that his parents lived with before him.
the real tragedy is not that mohammad irfan has a story to tell. the real tragedy is that his story is so painfully ordinary. there are millions like him across this country whose names we will never know, whose lives will never become headlines, and whose children may inherit the very same struggle. not because they lack courage or hard work, but because they were born into a reality they never chose.
@SushilS27538625 If the PM who is same age as your grandfather closed his eyes to the atrocities committed to women in Manipur or when rapists are garlanded, he absolutely deserves all the foul language.
Ask questions to elected, not to one protesting!
You don't get to tell people to curate their anger and make it palatable for you lot. Their IT cell has abused everyone online for raising their voices against this regime, against injustice. They are getting what they dished out for 12 years. Niklo yahan se bade aaye. Gaali nahi padti toh ye impact bhi nahi hota. India mein kitni mushkilon mein bacche padte hain. Sab amir aur privileged nahi hai tum jaison ki tarah.