@FreightAlley Carriers got an education of a lifetime recently. Expect this cycle play out differently than how it has in the past.
Carriers know this is the last "cycle" of our lifetimes. Trucking is dead. Trucks will go driverless soon and then it's game over.
This time means war.
59 years ago today, Israel attacked the USS Liberty in international waters. 34 crew members were killed and 174 were wounded by the IDF.
Today, I spoke on the House floor to honor the fallen and to recognize the survivors who were present in the gallery.
Jax you could find a load back out. What's going to make this different is complex. Carriers have been forced to survive on $2/ mile for several years. Now rates are above $4/ the backhaul is almost optional. As rates move to $5-6/mile, a $2 backhaul is costing $. Better to leave it and deadhead back to a $6 load. That lane, short 250 mile run is an out and back, sofigu 500 miles..$6/mile =$3000/load. But still will be tight on capacity with enforcement now.
@chip_setzer@wbridgefa@FreightAlley That lane across I10 FL has like 7 chances of getting pulled in for DOT/AG/ICE inspection, one way. And FL has started cracking down on non-doms, bad actors etc., its going to get expensive
My take away from Russia? Literally everything is fake and gay. They are lying about everything at every hour of every single day. The overreaction to me merely traveling to Moscow is precisely because they know I am NOT funded by ANY foreign nation or state, nor am I inherently capable of being controlled. Iโve been investigated by everyone from the literal President of France, (who admitted to hiring former Feds to look into my potential foreign ties)โ to the Israeli Ministry of Foreign affairs laying out a plan in their FARA docs to smear me as a part of their propaganda to win back support for Israel. They have nothing on me other than โurrr durrr sheโs demonic!โ plus repeat demands to โsue her!โ for refusing to bend the knee to their satanic agenda.
Iโm telling the truth about Russia bc I am genuinely shocked by how absolutely upside down the narrative about it is beyond obvious to me now which way the economic wind is blowing.
@John__Ferguson If I were a broker I'd definitely be pushing on both side as hard as I could..getting shippers to move higher, carriers to accept lower creating spread when I could.
But beware, the carrier squeeze higher is going to be brutal this time.
Fortunately, unfortunately.
Anticipate the average to shoot through $4 and climb above $5 very quickly. The backhaul markets where even though they're getting squeezed will go much higher soon.
There comes a point where if you're getting +/- $6 out, deadheading 500 or 1000 miles empty to get the next $6+ load vs grabbing 40-48k lbs for $2 or $3 to "cover fuel", makes business sense.
Backhaul markets will be at $4.50 soon.
I stand by my call on double digit average rates in the next 12 months.
$11/mile here we come.
Anticipate the average to shoot through $4 and climb above $5 very quickly. The backhaul markets where even though they're getting squeezed will go much higher soon.
There comes a point where if you're getting +/- $6 out, deadheading 500 or 1000 miles empty to get the next $6+ load vs grabbing 40-48k lbs for $2 or $3 to "cover fuel", makes business sense.
Backhaul markets will be at $4.50 soon.
I stand by my call on double digit average rates in the next 12 months.
$11/mile here we come.
Trucking spot rates have never moved up this fast, ever - including early COVID.
The weekly average for truckload spot rates moves to a new all-time high of $3.71/mile.
It took 43 weeks for spot rates to increase by $1.38/mile during early COVID (April - Feb 2021).
It has taken only 29 weeks to achieve the same increase (Nov 2025 - June 2026).
Trucking spot rates have never moved up this fast, ever - including early COVID.
The weekly average for truckload spot rates moves to a new all-time high of $3.71/mile.
It took 43 weeks for spot rates to increase by $1.38/mile during early COVID (April - Feb 2021).
It has taken only 29 weeks to achieve the same increase (Nov 2025 - June 2026).
On June 8, 2026, Iโll speak on the floor of the House to honor and memorialize the brave crew of the ๐บ๐ธ USS Liberty who died and were wounded in an unprovoked attack by ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel on June 8, 1967. Catch my speech on @cspan.
1989. $2.37 a mile. People act like carriers are supposed to still be running at those rates today. Inflation has pushed fuel 4-5 times higher, life in general is 4-5 times higher..tl rates are long over due for a reset and its time to catch up. Expect and demand 4-5x higher.
The West has created an utterly evil state religion where an accusation of โracismโ is the gravest offense that can be committed, even worse than rape or murder!
So if police show up at a crime scene and a British boy is bleeding out and an immigrant says the British boy is racist the cops will cuff the dying British boy.
@John__Ferguson Shippers and the world will grow accustomed to the new normal ..it will be painful getting there but the market is in for a major reset on rates. We had to accept we'll never see a $5 footlong Subway again either ๐ or good used cars for $1500..