Andreas Turunen

Doctoral Researcher of the Russian Aerospace Forces at the Swedish Defence University, co-founder at Mellenion

[𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝕯𝔢𝔞𝔡 𝕯𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔯𝔦𝔠𝔱△ 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇺🇲🇬🇷 @TheDeadDistrict]

I’m listening to an interview with a Russian Su-34 pilot who has been taking part in the war against Ukraine since the very first days.

🔴 He claims to have 1,400 combat sorties.

The interview is more than 3 hours long. Some interesting points:

🔴 The Su-34 does not have secure, encrypted radio communications; according to him, this only appeared on the Su-34M.

🔴 On a standard Su-34, he mostly carried out missions using unguided munitions, while Su-34M aircraft, with secure communications, were used for missions involving the suppression of Ukrainian air defenses.

🔴 I don’t know how accurate this is, but according to him, on the very first night of the war he was sent to fly at 6,000 meters over Kyiv without a specific mission, then ordered to return. On the way back, he saw missiles heading toward Kyiv. He says he was used as bait to provoke Ukrainian air defenses and then strike them with missiles afterward. Knowing Russian command practices, this sounds plausible. According to him, older Su-34s were used in this way more than once.

🔴 He praises Ukrainian air defense, saying it is very well organized and decentralized.

🔴 The Buk-M1 was, in his view, the most effective Ukrainian air defense system in the early phase of the war. He does not give exact figures, but it becomes clear that Russian Air Force losses were much higher than what is commonly reported online, and a major share of that was due to the Buk system.

🔴 Ukrainian Buk units quickly changed positions and mounted their systems on semi-trucks, which significantly improved their mobility and speed of redeployment.

🔴 He also describes Ukrainian air defense tactics in an interesting way. According to him, Ukrainians realized they did not need to shoot down every enemy aircraft; instead, their goal was to down a few aircraft each time, and over time this created a cumulative effect. As a result, his combat group reportedly lost half of its aircraft during the battles for Kyiv (though he does not specify the unit size—whether a squadron or a regiment).

👍I’ll continue listening and taking notes throughout the day when I have time.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Petraeus: The death zone in Ukraine extends 35 kilometers on either side of the front lines — defined by drone battery life. Tanks can't survive. Armored vehicles can't survive. Nothing can.

Neither side even drives vehicles anymore. Russians keep trying and keep proving it. 1/

[Andreas Turunen @AndreasTurunen]

Take a look here: https://t.co/wVwaxSwFZH

[Andreas Turunen @AndreasTurunen]

Great thread. I wrote a piece in February arguing that Russia would face a considerable risk of defeat if it invaded the Baltic states.

Long story short: NATO is much stronger in the aerospace domain.

[Kristi Raik @KristiRaik]

Will Russia escalate by attacking a NATO country, usually assumed to be a Baltic state? The question has come up in many conferences and discussions I’ve attended during the past months. Often the debate leaves many misperceptions to be corrected. Some points below 1/

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces: The way to neutralize the drone advantage is to develop active protection systems that can shoot down drones themselves.

When drones intercept drones, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery will all regain their effectiveness and return to the battlefield in much greater numbers. 1/

[Andreas Turunen @AndreasTurunen]

My colleague Juuso already saw this coming on April: https://t.co/DEcKFOZjzh

[Andreas Turunen @AndreasTurunen]

Mounting a Kord on a vessel is a measure to deter boarding by helicopter.

[Clash Report @clashreport]

NEW: Russia armed its LNG carrier Marshal Vasilevskiy with 12.7mm Utes heavy machine guns to defend against naval drones and possible European boarding attempts.

Photos from Baltic media show at least two gun positions flanking the bridge.

The ship is Russia’s only floating regasification unit, supplying Kaliningrad via the Baltic — so protecting it is critical.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Ex-CIA officer, West: There is no chance of a coup against Putin. Russia is a security state built over 26 years with one purpose, keeping him and his strongmen in power.

300,000 Rosgvardia troops loyal to him. 30,000 elite protective service. All beholden to Putin. 1/

[Kristi Raik @KristiRaik]

Will Russia escalate by attacking a NATO country, usually assumed to be a Baltic state? The question has come up in many conferences and discussions I’ve attended during the past months. Often the debate leaves many misperceptions to be corrected. Some points below 1/

[Maria Gestrin-Hagner @mgestrin]

@AndreasTurunen https://t.co/l1OqT3Hpfk

[Andreas Turunen @AndreasTurunen]

President Alexander Stubb says he does not believe Russia is preparing an attack on a NATO country https://t.co/XHHj3pEtCN

[Necro Mancer @666_mancer]

#Склянка, Иркутская обл., 15/06/26: медленно и печально
https://t.co/Sq4kpPRPSg #вксрф #потерьнет

[Oscar Jonsson @OAJonsson]

The Swedish Defense University is offering several fully funded PhDs, including one with a focus on Russian military power and warfare.

Do spread the word, link below!

[Kevin Rothrock @MrKevinRothrock]

Finnish President Alexander Stubb expresses skepticism about Russia testing NATO Article 5 after the war in Ukraine ends. "People just need to calm down. I understand the public debate, but I see all the intelligence reports — I read them very carefully." https://t.co/uV127synxa

[DroneBomber @DrnBmbr]

🇺🇦16:20 | 03/06

Approximate flight routes of our UAVs:

🔴 Red arrows — directions of strike UAV movement;

According to Russian sources, around 260 drones were claimed, though these estimates and the displayed routes remain highly approximate.

[Oscar Jonsson @OAJonsson]

Ukraina slår mot en korvett tillhörande Östersjöflottan i sin docka i Petersburg.

[Andreas Turunen @AndreasTurunen]

https://t.co/pdqob097J6

[ICDS Tallinn @ICDS_Tallinn]

Russia achieving its objectives is no longer the default assumption among the country's experts.

For the first time in four years, Kremlin-adjacent commentators appear to have concluded that the Ukrainian state cannot be destroyed, writes @IgorGretskiy. https://t.co/YjDM2Q2Jc8

[The Aviationist @TheAviationist]

Image Shows Russia Fielded a New A-50U Airborne Early Warning Aircraft

After three aircraft destroyed by Ukraine, Russia is gradually reinforcing its AEW&C fleet with the addition of a new A-50U.

Story: https://t.co/hNtJCljhst

[Andreas Turunen @AndreasTurunen]

3/3 He adds that some units are restored and basing is widening, but names no regiments or locations. None of this is independently verified. Read it as the command’s own statement of intent.

[Andreas Turunen @AndreasTurunen]

1/3 In the MoD’s Krasnaya Zvezda, Military Transport Aviation commander Lt Gen Benediktov says two regiments are fully re-equipped with new Il-76MD-90A heavy transports, after full execution of the 2025 state defence order. In-service Il-76MD are being modernized to Il-76MD-M.

[Andreas Turunen @AndreasTurunen]

2/3 His figures for the year: more than 3,900 flights, over 192,000 people, around 2,500 pieces of equipment and 46,000+ tonnes of cargo moved. Average annual flying time 130 hours per crew, rising to 172 for young pilots; 300+ graduates, incl 100+ pilots, due to join in 2026.