Luck has surface area.
The more you try, speak, build, share, prep, review, think, work... the larger the surface luck has to collide with.
Most people don’t succeed because they bat 100%.
They succeed because they take thousands of swings instead of dozens.
Then add the dedication to show up each day and work on prep and review... showing up every day long enough to improve the batting average/odds.
Luck isn’t static.
It compounds around action, repetition, and grit.
The so called market wizards almost all, 95%+ blew up, with multiple years of trial and error before they got lucky.
In that sense, compounding is the universe’s way of scaling luck.
Liftoff takes the most, enormous energy.
Escaping gravity takes continuous focused energy.
But once trajectory and escape velocity are achieved, compounding does much of the heavy lifting with risk systems in place.
The hardest part is surviving long enough to reach that phase. The light at the end of the tunnel, small and dim but there yet.
BREAKING: China is pressuring Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
There is one problem. Iran did not close it.
Seven insurance companies in London did.
China buys 80% of Iran’s shipped oil. Beijing has a $400 billion, 25-year cooperation agreement with Tehran. China is Iran’s economic lifeline. If any country on earth has leverage over Iran, it is China. And China is now using that leverage to demand the Strait reopens.
But the Strait was not closed by a sovereign decision. It was closed by the withdrawal of reinsurance capacity from five to ten firms, mostly in London, backstopping twelve P&I clubs that cover 90% of global tonnage. Iran did not order those firms to withdraw. Iran cannot order them to reinstate. Neither can China.
Even if Tehran capitulates entirely tonight and the IRGC stands down, not a single reinsurer reinstates Gulf war risk coverage on a phone call from Beijing. Reinstatement requires rebuilt risk models, voyage-by-voyage re-underwriting, repriced treaty capacity, and a threat environment that actuaries can quantify. None of that exists while 440.9 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium remains unaccounted for and the IRGC is still launching drones at Oman.
China has leverage over Iran. China has zero leverage over Lloyd’s of London.
This is the part nobody is modelling. The country with the most to lose and the most leverage over the belligerent cannot fix the mechanism that actually closed the Strait. Because the mechanism is not geopolitical. It is actuarial. And actuaries do not take calls from the Politburo.
https://t.co/ULBgEzZ3A8
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Los invito a leer atentamente el siguiente #hilo sobre #Ucrania y conocer más sobre este país que hoy pone en alerta al mundo por la crisis con #Rusia. Quizá te sirva para empezar a comprender lo que pudiera haber detrás. Aquí 👇🏼les dejo esta información y los invito a darle #RT
He dispuesto poner a disposición de la @FiscaliaPeru y @Defensoria_Peru el registro de todas nuestras cámaras de video vigilancia para que se investigue a los responsables de las violaciones de los DD.HH. durante las protestas de ayer. Estamos al servicio de nuestros ciudadanos.