A few controversial things I believe:
1) A grown man with a family has no business getting on a ladder to put up Christmas lights.
2) a larger vehicle is safer than a smaller vehicle. Put your family in an SUV. Period. Crash ratings are a scam.
3) Pitbulls are a public nuisance.
4) politics is a total waste of time. Putting energy towards it is inversely correlated to happiness.
5) earning money is hard. $100k a year is a lot of money. Twitter acts like it’s easy but it isn’t.
6) sports betting is a disaster for society. Quietly destroying a lot of men’s lives.
7) waiting till 35 to think about kids is a huge mistake. These folks are all going to regret not having more, earlier.
8) SEC and Big10 schools are the new Ivy League. Wealthy families want to send their kids there, not Harvard or Stanford.
9) religion is making a comeback. And the people who get serious about it end up with better lives.
10) marrying a doctor or a lawyer is high status, but low enjoyment. These folks live stressful lives with very little flexibility.
11) vaping and weed are better for your body than alcohol, but worse for your career and life. They remove ambition and energy and make you less social.
12) giving our kids 75 vaccines is going to go down in history as a net-negative on society.
13) technology won’t actually advance a lot from here. Our physical worlds will largely be the same 20 years from now.
14) driverless cars are 20 years away. Waymo won’t make it out of the major cities with 25 mile an hour speed limits.
15) Virtual reality won’t become a thing. Nobody has any use for it.
16) 99% of people have no use for AI and it has reached 90% of its potential utility. Massive waste of electricity on the whole.
17) Web3 is a joke. Crypto is worthless. Bitcoin is a fad and is 100% speculative. Massive waste of electricity. Solves a problem that doesn’t exist.
18) electric vehicles will not become mainstream. They do more harm to the environment than good. Creating them and disposing of them is an environmental catastrophe.
19) Starlink is a miracle and ads 10x more value to society than the previous 5 things on this list combined. Elon needs a Nobel prize.
20) the fed has done a great job over the last 3 years with rates.
21) nuclear power is the only way forward. Solar and wind are not sustainable and are a total waste of money. Oil and gas is the only viable solution today and America should invest heavily in more production.
22) Silicon Valley influencers and Tech titans are out of touch with the true needs of Americans. They could benefit by spending some time in a Walmart. Most people are trying to figure out how to put food on the table. They don’t need another app for their meta glasses.
What’s something you believe that isn’t a common belief? Which one am I wrong about?
Just back from the most joyful and bittersweet celebration of Charlie Munger at Berkshire's annual meeting. Wonderful seeing so many old and new friends and clients. Saturday's meeting was special. If you missed it, I highly encourage you to listen to the podcast (links below) or CNBC's video replay which just dropped on their Warren Buffett Archive https://t.co/bNYjpOlIja. For the first time the movie at the beginning of each meeting was broadcast to the public. As expected, it was a beautiful tribute to Charlie. If you watch nothing else watch it on the @CNBC Buffett link.
Highlights throughout the day were topped early in the morning session with Warren reflexively calling on Charlie instead of Greg to further elaborate a question about the energy operation. I don't normally cry.
A question from a young boy asking Warren what he would do with one more day with Charlie brought a terrific heartfelt response and advice.
I'm not sure Warren fully grieved Charlie's passing but it seemed he did so throughout the day Saturday. Particularly moving and full of wisdom was Warren's observation that he and Charlie had more fun with things that failed because then they really had to work. You can see that through the years when discussing in minute detail failed deals throughout the years that the worked together on solving and working out. Warren concluded working together on hard problems was more fun and entertaining than watching successful investments made a decade ago simply compound.
The sale of ~13% of the Apple position and thus increase of nearly $20 billion in cash was discussed. For those paying attention, Warren noted the cash balance would likely rise from $182 billion to $200 billion in the current quarter ended June 30, suggesting a similar-sized reduction in the Apple position, a decision I'm thrilled with. Having sold roughly 10% of the position in 2020 and later calling the original sale a mistake, that sales are underway today demonstrates the remarkable ability in Warren to change his mind, something that is difficult for anyone and certainly as we age. At 93 it illustrates he remains on top of his game, if not still improving as Charlie frequently observed.
In a subsequent question, Warren indicated the corporate tax rate, now at 21% and down from 35% in 2017's TCJA, would likely be higher due to out-of-control fiscal spending and enormous federal debt. He suggested the Apple sales may look logical over time in light of a potentially higher future corporate tax rate.
The afternoon session is not to be missed. Warren's answers to the final two questions emotionally capped a marvelous day as only Warren Buffett could do. The standing ovation at the end was like nothing I've seen at any concert. Following having talked about wills and J. Paul Getty's 25 codicils used to effectively punish his heirs, concluding codicils are to be avoided entirely, @BeckyQuick asked the brilliant final question of the day. Instead of summarizing, here are the final two questions and answers in full that concluded the meeting in unforgettable fashion:
Question: “Hello, my name is Dennis from Griffon, Germany. This is my first time here. I’m here with my friend who would, by the way, love to invite you to dinner. You talked about the importance of heroes, and we are very happy and thankful that we have you as our hero with great values. Thank you for that. First of all, my question is, it is clear that you achieved great success in life. Earlier you talked about every investment having opportunity cost. From what I’ve learned in life, that does not only apply to investing your money, but also to investing your time? Every hour you spend in your office is an hour you cannot spend with your spouse or children. With the life experience you have now, if you had the possibility to start all over again, would you set your priorities any different? If yes, how and why? And what’s the best way to invite you to dinner?”
Warren: “That definitely won’t be one of my priorities if I figure out how to do that. [laughter].
But don’t take it personally, because you can figure out at the maximum longest period I’ve got. I can figure out all kinds of things that should have been done differently, but so what? You know, I mean, I’m not perfect. I don’t believe in lots of self criticism or being unrealistic about either what you are or what you’ve accomplished or what you’d like to do. You do the, you know, you do a lot of things, and who knows whether, some with different trade offs. You know, you just can’t, you can’t. You don’t know where the paths would have led. I feel, I don’t think there’s any room in beating up yourself over what’s happened in the past. It’s happened and you get to live the rest of the life and you don’t know how long it’s going to be. And you keep trying to do the things that are important to you. If I was a doctor or if I was all kinds of different professions, I might do different things, but I really enjoy managing money for people who trust me. I don’t have any reason to do it for financial reasons. I’m not running a hedge fund or getting an override or anything. I just like the feeling of being trusted. Charlie felt the same way. That’s a good way to feel in life and it continues to be a good feeling. So I’m not really looking to change much. And, you know, if I’m very lucky, I get to play it off for six or seven years and it could end tomorrow. But that’s, that’s true of everybody, although the equation isn’t exactly the same. But I don’t believe in beating yourself up over anything you’ve done in the past. And I don’t believe in, well, I believe in trying to find what you’re good at, what you enjoy. And then I think the one thing that you can aspire to be, because this can be done by anybody, and it’s amazing, and it doesn’t have anything to do with money. But you can be kind. You can be kind. If you’re (kind), and then the world’s better off. [applause]
I’m not sure that the world will be better off if I’m , richer, but there’s no question that. I mean, you know kind people, and in the end, aspire to be more. Or I’m sure many of you are yourself, but just aspire to be more so. And I guess we can take one more question from Becky, and then we’ll wind up.
Becky Quick: “This question comes from Devon Spurgeon.” @DevonSpurgeon (former "chief of staff" to Warren)
Warren: “Uh oh.”
Becky: “On March 4, Charlie’s will was filed with the County of Los Angeles. The first codicil contained an unusual provision. It reads, ‘Averaged out, my long life has been a favored one, made better by duty, imposed by family tradition, requiring righteousness and service. Therefore, I follow an old practice that I wish was more common. Now, inserting an ethical bequeath that gives priority not to property, but to transmission of duty.’
If you were to make an ethical bequest to Berkshire shareholders, what duties would you impose and why?”
Warren: “I’d probably say read Charlie. I mean, he’s expressed it well, and I would say that if you’re not financially well off, if you’re being kind, you’re doing something that most of the rich people don’t do, even when they give away money. But that’s on the question of whether you’re rich or poor. And I would say, if you’re lucky and life, make sure a bunch of other people are lucky, too. [applause]
Okay.
Just in case. You know what my advice to myself would be has been during this period.
So, we only got 33 questions, or whatever it is. But thank you very, very much for coming, and I not only hope that you come next year, but I hope I come next year.” [ovation]
Here are the podcast links to the morning and afternoon sessions. Great seeing everyone that was in Omaha and look forward do doing so for years and decades to come.
https://t.co/9dXOWA9d9t
https://t.co/wyqxZ6yyz0
Meta's new Ray-Ban multimodal smart glasses just dropped.
A smart, budget-friendly, lightweight wearable, unlike Apple Vision Pro.
Here are 7 things you can do with Ray-Ban Meta glasses:
(These are real glasses, not a concept)