Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥

datums scientist, economist, rhapsode, urban hiker, XCH, StellaCoin, pre08 NGDP trajectory maxi, pair of ragged claws scuttling across the floors of silent seas

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

I’m still here, but I won’t be posting as much now that X has become a nest of vipers. Catch me on Bluesky (andyharless[dot]bsky[dot]social) or Threads (adharless) if you’re into that kind of thing.

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

@mattyglesias …unless that deficit reduction is the kind that would be unpopular despite being effective.

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

@mattyglesias I think you accomplish it by not imposing tariffs and not startling a war that constricts the supply of energy. Unfortunately it’s too late for that. But I’m skeptical that the marginal propensity to consume is high enough among the ultra-rich deficit reduction by effective….

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

@ajilling Anyhow, this series of replies was a very long-winded way of saying “no”

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

Consumer sentiment at a record low, but it’s not like, “we’re going to stop spending.“ It’s more like, “We’re still spending, but we are very upset because prices are so high.” I see this going one of two ways: (1/2)

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

@ajilling Damn that autocomplete. Should be “people substitute away,” not “people subscribe away.”

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

@ajilling 1. It’s theoretically impossible, since people subscribe away from things when prices go up, and there’s no way to know whether the substitute is almost as good as the original (so it’s not really much inflation) or the original was much better (so it’s all inflation).

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

That approach would allow the Fed to commit to gradually reducing inflation in a credible way— hopefully with some help from AI-driven productivity growth—while still not requiring a recession in the near term.

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

FWIW, a better idea for everyone involved—but one that I suspect no one will like, for a variety of reasons—would be to abandon inflation targeting entirely and commit to an NGDP level path target based on the pre-2008 trajectory.…

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

AI uses far too much of our water supply. When I say AI, I’m referring to almond irrigation.

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

@georgeregnery @RaminNasibov 6 of the 8 have English as their primary language. Not sure what that means.

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

I think interest rates are eventually going down but may (or may not) go up quite a bit first. The path from here to stable 2% inflation is too narrow, and the Fed will have little choice but overshoot on the downside if it means to maintain a credible commitment to its target.

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

@tunguz @Noahpinion Personally I think a more valid criticism than “he normalized borrowing our way out of problems” is that he let our problems get worse because he was afraid to borrow enough. (Seems to be a general characteristic of Obama that people have opposite criticisms.)

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

@Noahpinion We should back out the threshold for “too much wealth” (or too much income) by figuring out how many people need to be taxed more to fund a welfare state.

[Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥 @AndyHarless]

@Noahpinion Maybe we can get the 10^6-aires to rise up against the 10^7-aires