AnonymousBull

CFA | BTC class of 2015 | Until you make the unconcious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate | Investor | NFA

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

2013 Bull Run.

-Blue Line = halving date
-Green Box = halving date to peak
-Red Box = peak to bottom
-Blue Box = days from halving to ‘bottom’

#Bitcoin #Cryptocrash #BTC #HalvingCycles

See Below for 2017 and 2021 👇 (1/3)

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

SP500 vega, yes. via VIX futures or ETPs.

Individual equities you will need to construct a combination of overlayed positions and dynamically change them to keep vega isolated via delta/gamma hedging. Institutional desk strat, do not try at home.

Call writing or selling straddles is your best bet here and accomplishes the short vol exposure for most retail participants.

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

depending on how you look at it.

Long common stock is effectively a long call on the company’s assets with a short put on the debt. Depending which hypothetical option has more vega would determine if you are long or short vol (fundamentally - Merton model)

Empirically, realized equity returns and realized volatility are highly negatively correlated (what I think you are referencing, and it is a valid point. However, it is not bound by any market dynamic, but rather shows the market misprices vol in up markets, proving why the short vol trade works)

Not as clear cut of a method to short vol. Only real 1:1 way is shorting VIX futures or using inverse products, but even then you have a carry and others.

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

@anananna99 @citrini Selling literally any option on any security (excluding vix) is short vol. You are short all the greeks, but one of them is vega (vol).

Alternatively, you can short the vix directly.

Every asset has vol, and that vol can be isolated. Countless ways to short vol.

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

@rasmr_eth @ThinkingUSD Oil companies short oil (hedged).

Why can’t the oil company of the shitcan that is Ethereum do the same?

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

Everyone is a genius. End of cycle activities. VIX calls cheap hedge here.

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

@blknoiz06 Alaska (unedited)

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

@blknoiz06 Golf all day, but the learning curve compared to the others is large.

Hiking & fishing you can be beyond novice after a week or two doing them (boys trip to Alaska in the summer). Hunting varies by game.

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

@goodalexander Curious why I only hear private credit, and private equity is never mentioned.

Direct lending is 75-80% sponsor backed. If private credit is fked, what happens to the equity below it in the capital stack?

Not defending PC, but the discussion needs to include PE as well.

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

@thiccyth0t @Citrini7 MM balances at ATHs

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

You’re telling me the year is 2026 and you have vibe coded ZERO workflows.

Despicable.

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

2026 YTD Vibe Code Stats

43 workflows automated
18 projects sitting @ 90% complete
0 items shipped

PnL:
Revenue - $0.00

Claude - $1,600.00
Mac Mini - $600.00

Profit / (Loss) - ($2,200.00)

Staying positive. This is my year 💪🏼.

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

It was Jane Street all along.

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

@ThinkingUSD Yes. Market wants it ASAP.

If I had substantial equity, I am pushing for IPO payday. There is real risk in delaying.

Ex. Gemini released Clade Code equivalent (likely)

Option 1: Get paid and lose trade secrets

Option 2: Delay pay day (potentially forever) and keep secrets

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

@venturetwins I recently wrote about this on my substack. It isn’t about today, it is about 5-10 years from now. There is, however, plenty of opportunity.

https://t.co/x3vNO38LI4

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

@rainnen23 @bunjil My quant told me the same thing. Based on moon cycles, we see $525k on BTC and $480 on HYPE by Feb. 17 (New Moon, New Bag).

-Hyperliquid

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

Some quick crypto market thoughts:

1. BTC will see lower if the cycle is in tact, which seems to be the consensus given recent PA. Main reasons for lower are that there has not been market wide capitulation even though you may personally have, the market has not (you can see this in the derivative and vol data). Also, a 50% pullback is not consistent with historical bear markets. I would expect this to reach 60-66% where that capitulation threshold would be hit. For reference, we had a mid-cycle 50% drawdown last cycle before seeing new highs, and most bear markets were around that 66% pullback. However, the bull case here is that this drawdown is, in fact, mid-cycle. Unfortunately, the timeline doesn’t match here, but anything can change with the new dynamics (ETFs/Institutional adoption).

2. Bid Hyperliquid

-Hyperliquid

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

Moral of the story is that we won’t see a struggle to deploy the capital (the main constraint is and always will be, power).

$660bn sounds massive (it is), but it is simply 25 DCs. Between the tenant (hyperscalers), owners (private infra), and engine (nvidia), these deals are priced to perfection in most cases.

It is not going to be 660 $1 million deals. That would be a tough task.

[AnonymousBull @AnonBull_sol]

@d_gilz That $660bn is largely going to be:

1. Datacenters: land/building, power/cooling, and networking

2. Chips for datacenter

A full stack AI campus can run in mid to high double-digit billions. You can get to these massive #’s by building several at once.