Space launch was a clear case where there was a large difference in efficiency between what was possible and what was done in practice before SpaceX. A large part of that was due to everything being locked in to what (just barely) already worked, with huge risk aversion. WIth national prestige or a half billion dollar geosync satellite on the line, speculative engineering ideas that might result in a public debacle were not welcome.
When failure is not an option, success can stay very expensive. You need to experiment to improve, and that fundamentally means being comfortable with failure. If you know it is going to work, it isn’t an experiment.
I have long believed that nuclear power today is in precisely the same state as space launch two decades ago, but the even more pressing question now is if semiconductor fabrication might also be.
On the one hand, Moore’s Law has been a sequence of heroic miracles of technology at the wafer fabrication level, grinding out hundreds of compounding small improvements.
On the other hand, fabs are “too big to fail”, and there are elements of extreme conservatism at play. Intel’s “Copy exactly!” fab development exemplifies that mindset – instead of every new building being an opportunity to explore and optimize processes, it was deemed more valuable to just replicate.
While each individual machine may be straining against physical limits of technology, it is possible that the systems orchestrating them all together could be far from optimal.
The explore / exploit axis is fundamental to all decision making, but human risk avoidance probably biases away from optimal exploration.
I estimate a normal map for each egg, which lets me dynamically reconfigure lighting on a per-marc basis.
Without this my eggs wouldn't have the shiny, reflective quality that they need!
The Scientology bldgs in Hollywood have now removed all their door handles and chained the doors shut from the inside in attempt to stop the viral speedruns🥴
Ppl say they want more whimsy in the world, but then when a defense contractor builds a mail truck straight out of Pixar, they cry that it doesn't look like their mother's crossover SUV
The NGDV is the perfect literal & spiritual successor to the Grumman LLV
Long live the NGDV!
So, basically, if Anthropic was not a US company, we’d be facing zero days with multiple unknown points of attack on virtually all of our systems to an adversary who developed this capacity before us.
btw, @bcherny put up a bunch of prompt cache fixes for openclaw.
https://t.co/Z7wE167SPl
if you are building custom harnesses, read them. prompt caching is really not hard to understand. but almost all harnesses get it wrong. it's puzzling.