Mr.Lee

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@CryptoDanta 还有 哥哥

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

Gonna share my 2026 hedging thesis (long tweet warning)

I call it: how to get paid even if crypto bleeds and tech beta starts vomiting into year end.

Strictly my personal opinion. All info below are based on PUBLIC sources. Not financial advice, DYOR

With crypto potentially facing another 20-40% drawdown into year-end, I’m increasingly convinced that select oil and tanker equities are one of the cleaner hedges right now.

AND NO, this isn't another tweet about gambling long or short on crude.

The play is shareholder yield: dividends, supplemental dividends, and buybacks, backed by strong free cash flow, manageable leverage, and real asset exposure. Sized right, the basket could return 20-30% cash this year.

My thesis is not “which oil stock does 2x or 5x.”

It’s defensive: these companies are generating exceptional cash in the current freight and energy setup. Many run with low single-digit net debt to EBITDA, and select names can deliver double-digit shareholder yield through 2026 if rates stay firm.

That’s real cash flow while crypto chops, and honestly I’d rather have that than be all-in into tech growth names that offer zero yield buffer when risk assets correct.

Buying now can still qualify you for upcoming quarterly dividends, but you need to own shares before the official ex-date. Make sure you check share buyback policies too, because that’s where the real combo comes from: dividends + buybacks + potential share price gains.

ALSO AN IMPORTANT TAX NOTE everyone should know:

> US taxpayers: want the lower qualified-dividend tax rate instead of getting cooked at ordinary income rates? Usually you need to hold shares unhedged for 61+ days within the 121-day window around the ex-date.

> Non-US investors: normal US dividends can get hit with a 30% withholding tax slap. BUT many tanker names are foreign-domiciled, so the tax haircut can be much lighter. Don’t be lazy though, check domicile, broker, and local tax before celebrating.

The near-term dividend window is worth watching, but I’m separating confirmed declarations from forecasted ex-dates.

Confirmed/recent shareholder-return updates:

> ASC announced on april 29 (literally yesterday) that it is doubling its payout ratio to two-thirds of adjusted earnings, effective Q1 2026. Q1 MR spot TCE was around 33.7k/day, and Q2-to-date was around 50k/day. Dividend amount/date still needs official declaration.

> Var Energi (OSL:VAR/VARRY) has a confirmed 300M Q1 2026 distribution payable June 12, with another 300M guided for Q2.

> Eni (E/ENI.MI) confirmed a 2026 dividend of €1.10/share and raised its buyback plan by about 90% to €2.8B.

> TTE raised its first 2026 interim dividend by 5.9% to €0.90/share and doubled Q2 buybacks to $1.5B. Not a May/June capture name, but good shareholder-return ballast.

For the tanker watchlist:

> DHT has one of the cleanest payout formulas: 100% of ordinary net income as quarterly cash dividends. Q1 payout/date still needs declaration.

> TRMD’s last official distribution was $0.70/share. Any May dates floating around are watchlist inputs until TORM officially declares.

> FRO paid $1.03/share for Q4, and Q1 looks strong with VLCC days booked around 107.1k/day. But the next dividend is still pending.

> INSW’s most recent payout was $2.15/share combined ($0.12 regular + $2.03 supplemental) for Q4 2025. Next payout depends on Q1 results.

> HAFN (product/chemical tankers) raised its latest quarterly dividend to $0.1762/share and is seeking a new 10% buyback mandate at the 2026 AGM. Next payout pending.

> STNG is more buyback + quality product tanker exposure than a huge dividend-capture name.

> NAT has visible variable yield, but I’d treat it as higher risk.

The basket has 4 buckets:

Variable/formula-based tanker payouts: ASC, DHT, TRMD, HAFN, FRO, INSW, NAT

(highest dividend torque in the basket, but also the most variable)

Product tanker buyback discipline: STNG

(still shipping exposure, but more buyback + quality operator than huge dividend capture)

Big energy shareholder-return ballast: SU, TTE, E/ENI.MI, CNQ, REPYY/REP.MC, OSL:VAR/VARRY

(less sexy, but more grown-up hedge: dividends, buybacks, scale, and balance sheet durability)

Buyback/growth oil names: VIST, ATH. TO

(not dividend names, but buybacks can still create shareholder yield without sending you a cash dividend)

see the table below for the full visual overview with qualification/timing notes on every name (including higher-risk examples like PBR)

IMPORTANT: this is not a free dividend glitch.

Stocks often adjust down around the ex-date, sometimes more than the dividend itself. variable dividends can disappear if rates collapse. Buybacks only matter if management buys at sane prices.

So, the setup I like: own cash-return machines while the market is still underpricing how long energy cash flow can stay strong.

Why this hedge over the usual alternatives:

> tech stocks: still risk-on beta, no yield buffer
> bonds: help in recession, messy if inflation/oil risk stays sticky
> cash: safe but real returns are unexciting
> long dated puts: clean hedge, expensive theta bleed if timing is wrong

The tanker angle is different because strong Q1/Q2 cash flow can come back as dividends, supplemental dividends and buybacks. (not fixed, but in the right rate environment, cash returns fast)

Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, the system doesn't reset overnight:

> inventories still need to rebuild
> refined products can stay tight
> trade routes can stay inefficient
> Q1 cash flow already happened
> Q2 rates are the next thing to watch

Crypto for asymmetric growth, oil-linked yield for cash flow ballast. I don't need every hedge to 5x, sometimes the boring trade just keeps paying you while crypto does whatever crypto does.

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

If you want to stop losing money on trading the hype every time a Hormuz headline pops up, here’s what I look at every day instead:

> daily tanker transits through the strait
> Asian crude inventories
> diesel/gasoline/jet fuel draws
> refining margins
> product tanker rates
> Brent-Dubai spread
> war-risk insurance premiums

these signals tell you more about the next 4–8 weeks than any headline.

better than candle astrology and much better than kols cosplay-trading “insider sources”

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@BFang5566 @Crypto_He @grok @jadoodoo_

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@CryptoDanta 蛋总仁义

[himmy @heishimmy]

7 straight months without a red day

Struggled one week but I always rely on discipline to make sure I don't hyper gamble into the red

It's hard not to compare to others but I'm happy with my wins, 7 months ago I wouldn't believe this.

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@yifaer_chen 6 万泰铢=1.34 万人民币，吓得不敢睁眼看

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@wuk_Bitcoin 哥我先加个关注，坐等公开bot 逻辑

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@wolfyxbt 卧槽，原来土狗是这么玩的吗，读秒操作？？？

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@caijingshujuku a花500万买的房子，200万被b接盘，这是硬着陆。但是如果发几篇莫须有的新闻后，b在400万接盘，再发几篇软文，c在300万接盘，d在200万接盘，就是软着陆

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@interjc 可能是最后一个

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@thankUcrypto 鹰总牛逼，大额赚钱快，亏钱也快啊，风险与回报成正比

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

Claimed my @StandX_official ID.
看你们都抽了个标准卡，我抽了优质卡，我该怎么办

https://t.co/Tp59U9abeF

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@CryptoDanta 个十百千万十万百万千万 草

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@REVApay_ai @REVApay_ai , send 8 usdc on BNB Chain to 0xb21943f03c079e78a66f135a23b24c788b0a5b75

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

@CryptoDanta 我一直觉得所谓的黄推女，都是某些组织批量运营的矩阵号

[Reveel @r3vl_xyz]

Milestone unlocked: 500,000 registered Stablecoin IDs 🟩

Half a million people now moving money with universal identity

This is just the beginning.

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

如果你还没加入候补，现在还有机会，测试资格会陆续开放：https://t.co/bxkvBMH0iu

[Mr.Lee @Ant_lee666]

💥StandX Alpha来了！

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[StandX @StandX_Official]

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