Anthony

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[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

🧵 Top 10 Bitcoin Indicators Every Trader Should Watch

1️⃣ Coinbase Premium Index
Positive premium = US spot demand = Bullish 🟢 Falling premium = caution ⚠️

2️⃣ Stablecoin Dominance
High = Risk-off 🟥
Low = Risk-on 🟩

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@itscruxia @itscruxia please test the daily golden cross

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

MARKET OUTLOOK — Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Gold surged 3.64% yesterday, its biggest one-day move in weeks. Yet the buy stop at 4,867.9, a systematic trigger for a continuation breakout, never saw a tick. The metal closed at 4,680.6, a full 4% below the level.

ON WATCH

3 of today's setups are waiting on a range to resolve.
· XAUUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 4,115.395962 and 4,867.904005 (16.04% wide); price sits 77% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box. A fill IS the confirmation.
· EURCAD — RANGE-BOUND between 1.570752 and 1.633312 (3.89% wide), 114 sessions inside; price sits 58% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box. A fill IS the confirmation.
· XAGUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 56.7 and 70.12 (19.29% wide); price sits 96% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box.

That is the observation. The interpretation is not that the move failed but that price and the trigger coexisted without convergence. Gold has risen 6.85% over five sessions. Bitcoin fell 1.29% yesterday despite a 17.64% weekly gain. The S&P 500 added 0.41% after a 1.37% weekly loss. These numbers sit side by side.

Across assets, relative strength ranks agriculture strongest and the US dollar weakest. In crypto, activity is concentrated: Arbitrum and Hyperliquid L1 posted weekly volume changes of 313% and 293%. The rotation reads BTC to large-cap alts, with SOL outperforming and the ETH/BTC ratio rising. Equity sectors show a defensive tilt: Consumer Staples +1.70%, Technology -2.22%. These are maps of where attention is, not measures of capital flows.

The key levels to watch are gold's buy stop at 4,867.9, invalidated below 4,300.7, and silver's buy stop at 79.56, invalidated at 72.65. In currencies, the USDCAD short trails at 1.39292, while speculators remain crowded short the CAD (COT index 10). The crowd is positioned for further dollar weakness and gold strength, but the triggers sit above the current price.

I see the gold trigger sitting 4% above a market that just printed a 3.64% gain. The setup is defined; the market hasn't yet decided to take it.

THE TAPE
· S&P 500 (SPY) 765.72 (+0.41% day, -1.37% 5d)
· Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 713.44 (+0.35% day, -2.41% 5d)
· Gold 4,680.6 (+3.64% day, +6.85% 5d)
· Bitcoin 76,087.5 (-1.29% day, +17.64% 5d)
· Oil WTI 87.06 (-0.88% day, +5.66% 5d)
· EUR/USD 1.16782 (+0.04% day, +1.24% 5d)
10y real yield 2.35% · next catalyst: BOJ Core CPI y/y 2026-08-25

POSITIONING & ODDS — WHAT THE CROWD EXPECTS

COT 52-week index (report 2026-08-18) — crowded SHORT: EUR 5, CAD 10; crowded LONG: CHF 80. Retail vs specs — DIVERGENT: USDCHF (retail 75% long, specs lean short). Betting markets price Fed easing 14%. (That index runs 0-100 and ranks the last 52 weeks of speculator positioning: 0 is the most short they have been all year, 100 the most long.) Extremes mark crowded rooms — sometimes conviction, sometimes the very trade to fade when it unwinds.

ATTENTION & FLOW

Across asset classes, relative strength ranks Agriculture strongest and US Dollar weakest — leadership, not an observed fund-flow ledger. In crypto, the largest reported weekly volume changes are Arbitrum (+313% over a week); Hyperliquid L1 (+293% over a week), with AERO, SOL, BTC, HYPE trending. Activity measures attention, not allocated capital. In equities, NEM leads and XLU lags — leadership inside the index. In commodities, GOLD leads metals and OIL_BRENT leads energy. This is where the crowd is looking and trading right now — a different axis from where capital sits.

Asset classes, strongest to weakest: agriculture +1.37 · metals +1.21 · crypto +0.95 · energy +0.53 · US equity +0.44 · intl equity +0.22 · bonds -0.28 · the dollar -1.24.

Where the rotation stands: the risk cycle sits at **Large-Cap Alts**, crypto rotation reads **BTC to Large Alts**, safety flow is normal. ETH/BTC ratio rising. SOL outperforming. Rotation from BTC to large-cap alts underway.

Equity sectors, one session's move: Consumer Staples +1.70%, Utilities +1.05%, Real Estate +0.62% lead; Technology -2.22%, Innovation -2.42% lag (11 ranked).

Crypto narratives, one session's move: AI +2.84%, Exchange +2.01%, RWA +1.99% lead; DePIN -1.96%, L2 -3.26% lag (12 ranked).

Chains: locked capital growing fastest on Flare +34.6%, OP Mainnet +30.5%, Ink +23.0%; trading volume hottest on Arbitrum +313%, Hyperliquid L1 +293%, Sui +202%.

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@itscruxia @itscruxia you don't need to keep emphasizing that you have 0 revenue

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@itscruxia @itscruxia give illustration or short video how the strategy works

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@itscruxia @itscruxia you have x premium account and can make long form content, why still split into a thread?

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

Qwen3.8-27B-Uncensored-FP8

Weights: https://t.co/cIA8zufLVS

This is an abliterated + offline block-FP8 version of Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-27B (dense ~27B multimodal model with hybrid Gated DeltaNet + full attention, 262K context, vision, tool-calling, and MTP).

They removed the refusal direction (Arditi-style abliteration) then re-quantized it to match the official Qwen FP8 scheme. Result: near-zero refusals while keeping almost all capability.

Refusal collapse

Thinking OFF:

- AdvBench: 99% → 0%
- JailbreakBench: 94% → 0%
- StrongREJECT: 97.3% → 2%
- HarmBench: 98.7% → 2.7%
- Overall harmful refusal: 64–99% → 0–6%

Over-refusal on benign prompts also drops hard (XSTest-safe 5.6% → 0.4%).

Capability retention (vs base FP8)

MMLU: 84.3 → 84.7
MMLU-Pro: 77.6 → 76.8
GSM8K: 90.0 → 88.7
CMMLU: 81.4 → 80.8
Vision, tools, reasoning modes, and MTP still work. ~30.9 GB FP8, designed for clean vLLM serving.

Advantages vs other models

- Far less refusal / over-refusal than the aligned base or most open models
- Competitive agentic coding + multimodal performance at 27B scale (base already strong on SWE-bench Pro, LiveCodeBench, OSWorld-style tasks)
- Fully open weights, Apache 2.0, self-hostable — no API costs or data leakage
- Surgical edit with unusually good capability retention compared to many earlier abliterations
- Long context + hybrid attention makes 262K practical

Disadvantages

- Zero meaningful built-in guardrails. It will answer things the base refuses. Research-only framing for a reason.
- Still a 27B dense model — lags true frontier closed models on pure hard reasoning in some areas
- Needs solid VRAM (~40GB+ comfortable for FP8)
- Abliteration isn’t perfect: residual disclaimers can appear, and extreme edge cases can still show minor coherence hits

Bottom line

One of the cleaner high-capability uncensored 27B builds right now. Excellent for red-teaming, interpretability research, refusal-mechanism study, or local work where you don’t want the model lecturing you.

Not something you throw into a public chatbot without heavy external filters.
If you want safety alignment → use the official Qwen3.8-27B.

If you want maximum raw intelligence regardless of cost → closed frontier models still lead overall.

If you want a strong, open, mostly-unfiltered local multimodal/coding model → this is worth a serious look.

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@itscruxia @itscruxia You should tag the one who ask this

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@itscruxia @itscruxia need to be more complete

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@itscruxia @itscruxia interesting topic, keep going

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@Altcoinist And don't forget that smile😁

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@mickymalka Thank you for the generational wealth transfer opportunity 🐸

[Altcoinist @Altcoinist]

https://t.co/vU4QaBF0Qi

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@_0xghost_ They choose dopamine over generational wealth

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

MARKET OUTLOOK — Tuesday, 18 August 2026

Gold +1.69% on the day — the tape's loudest move into today's session.

ON WATCH

3 of today's setups are waiting on a range to resolve.
· XAUUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 4,238.868135 and 4,866.872002 (14.17% wide); price sits 31% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box. A fill IS the confirmation.
· XAGUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 56.7 and 67 (15.52% wide); price sits 94% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box.
· BTCUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 62,191.97 and 66,914 (7.34% wide); price sits 45% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box.

THE TAPE

· S&P 500 (SPY) 776.34 (-0.20% day, +0.40% 5d)
· Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 731.07 (-0.14% day, +1.11% 5d)
· Gold 4,437.3 (+1.69% day, +2.23% 5d)
· Bitcoin 62,993.5 (-0.05% day, -0.88% 5d)
· Oil WTI 82.40 (+1.42% day, +5.40% 5d)
· EUR/USD 1.15727 (+0.37% day, +0.42% 5d)
10y real yield 2.39% · next catalyst: Building Permits 2026-08-18

POSITIONING & ODDS

COT 52-week index (report 2026-08-11) — crowded SHORT: EUR 5, CAD 3, NASDAQ 0; crowded LONG: BTC 99. Betting markets price Fed easing 8%, stocks higher 78%. (That index runs 0-100 and ranks the last 52 weeks of speculator positioning: 0 is the most short they have been all year, 100 the most long.) Extremes mark crowded rooms — sometimes conviction, sometimes the very trade to fade when it unwinds.

ATTENTION & FLOW

Across asset classes, relative strength ranks Agriculture strongest and Crypto weakest — leadership, not an observed fund-flow ledger. In crypto, the largest reported weekly volume changes are Base (-8.1% over a week); Hyperliquid L1 (-8.1% over a week), with PENGU, PEAQ, VVV, ANSEM trending. Activity measures attention, not allocated capital. In equities, SNOW leads and MARA lags — leadership inside the index. In commodities, GOLD leads metals and OIL_BRENT leads energy. This is where the crowd is looking and trading right now — a different axis from where capital sits.

Asset classes, strongest to weakest: agriculture +0.89 · metals +0.43 · intl equity +0.30 · US equity +0.23 · energy +0.05 · bonds -0.27 · the dollar -0.53 · crypto -0.58.

Where the rotation stands: the risk cycle sits at **BTC Catches Up**, crypto rotation reads **BTC to Large Alts**, safety flow is normal. BTC takes the baton from gold. BTC/Gold ratio rising. BTC dominance still high.

Equity sectors, one session's move: Energy +1.58%, Technology +0.87%, Health Care +0.58% lead; Real Estate -0.86%, Consumer Staples -1.64% lag (11 ranked).

Crypto narratives, one session's move: Privacy +3.11%, RWA +1.87%, Meme +1.58% lead; AI +0.52%, Exchange -0.31% lag (12 ranked).

Chains: locked capital growing fastest on Robinhood Chain +12.3%, Plasma +6.4%, OP Mainnet +6.0%; trading volume hottest on Base -8%, Hyperliquid L1 -8%, Robinhood Chain -9%.

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@_0xghost_ Yes, he will retire us 🐸

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@viramimoza @itscruxia check this out

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

MARKET OUTLOOK — Friday, 14 August 2026

Oil dropped 2.37% yesterday, the largest single-day decline among the major markets, and the move is visible in the tape as a sharp reversal from a week that had seen crude gain 5.19%. Equities rose alongside the drop, with the S&P 500 up 0.70% and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.16%. Gold edged down 0.17% after a 3.76% weekly gain, while bitcoin was flat. These moves coexist without a clear causal link; the tension is the divergence between oil’s slide and the broader risk-on tone in stocks.

ON WATCH

3 of today's setups are waiting on a range to resolve.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box. A fill IS the confirmation.
· XAUUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 4,038.46 and 4,510 (10.89% wide); price sits 62% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box.
· XAGUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 56.7 and 67 (16.11% wide); price sits 70% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box.
· BTCUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 62,191.97 and 66,914 (7.44% wide); price sits 27% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box.

Relative strength rankings put agriculture at the top of asset classes at +0.70 and crypto at the bottom at -0.55. Within equities, Real Estate led yesterday with a 1.32% gain, Consumer Discretionary added 1.09%, and Health Care lagged at -0.81%. In crypto narratives, Modular led at +1.40% while Gaming fell 1.18%. The chains with the hottest trading volume over the week are Robinhood Chain at +33% and Sui at +17%. These are measures of activity and attention, not allocated capital.

Gold is boxed in a range between 4,038.46 and 4,510.0, with price sitting 62% up that range. The tracked setup flags a buy stop at 4,510.0 with invalidation at 4,449.3, and a sell stop at 4,038.5 with invalidation at 4,101.7. Silver is in a wider range between 38.90 and 79.55, price at 63% up it, with a buy stop at 79.56 and a sell stop at 56.70. Bitcoin has a buy stop at 66,914.0 and a sell stop at 62,192.0. The current long direction in gold holds above 4,364.1; a break below would invalidate that setup. The crowd is modestly short gold according to the latest COT data, with a 52-week index of 39. The risk cycle reads “BTC Catches Up,” suggesting crypto is taking the baton from gold, though bitcoin itself is flat.

THE TAPE

· S&P 500 (SPY) 777.88 (+0.70% day, +1.21% 5d)
· Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 732.07 (+1.16% day, +2.44% 5d)
· Gold 4,401.3 (-0.17% day, +3.76% 5d)
· Bitcoin 63,373.9 (-0.05% day, -2.36% 5d)
· Oil WTI 81.30 (-2.37% day, +5.19% 5d)
· EUR/USD 1.15407 (+0.09% day, +0.14% 5d)
10y real yield 2.43% · next catalyst: Retail Sales 2026-08-14

POSITIONING & ODDS — WHAT THE CROWD EXPECTS

COT 52-week index (report 2026-08-04) — crowded SHORT: EUR 6, CAD 0, NASDAQ 2; crowded LONG: BTC 97. Betting markets price Fed easing 13%. (That index runs 0-100 and ranks the last 52 weeks of speculator positioning: 0 is the most short they have been all year, 100 the most long.) Extremes mark crowded rooms — sometimes conviction, sometimes the very trade to fade when it unwinds.

ATTENTION & FLOW — WHERE THE ACTION IS

Across asset classes, relative strength ranks Agriculture strongest and Crypto weakest — leadership, not an observed fund-flow ledger. In crypto, the largest reported weekly volume changes are Robinhood Chain (+33.2% over a week); Sui (+16.9% over a week), with PUMP, CASHCAT, PENGU, SOL trending. Activity measures attention, not allocated capital. In equities, SNOW leads and MARA lags — leadership inside the index. In commodities, GOLD leads metals and OIL_BRENT leads energy. This is where the crowd is looking and trading right now — a different axis from where capital sits.

Asset classes, strongest to weakest: agriculture +0.70 · metals +0.38 · US equity +0.30 · intl equity +0.18 · bonds -0.01 · energy -0.11 · the dollar -0.45 · crypto -0.55.

Where the rotation stands: the risk cycle sits at **BTC Catches Up**, crypto rotation reads **Broad Alt Season**, safety flow is normal. BTC takes the baton from gold. BTC/Gold ratio rising. BTC dominance still high.

Equity sectors, one session's move: Real Estate +1.32%, Consumer Discretionary +1.09%, Consumer Staples +1.08% lead; Clean Energy -0.24%, Health Care -0.81% lag (11 ranked).

Crypto narratives, one session's move: Modular +1.40%, Oracle +1.01%, Exchange +1.00% lead; Gaming -1.18%, L2 -1.19% lag (12 ranked).

Chains: locked capital growing fastest on Robinhood Chain +18.4%, Stellar +6.9%, Provenance +5.9%; trading volume hottest on Robinhood Chain +33%, Sui +17%, Ethereum +0%.

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

MARKET OUTLOOK — Thursday, 13 August 2026

Speculators are crowded short the Canadian dollar, their 52-week index at zero—the most extreme bet against the loonie in a year. On the other side, systematic trend followers have been leaning the opposite way, short USDCAD since early July. In gold, the crowd is far more neutral, with a 52-week index of 39, even as the metal has surged 8.86% over the past five sessions. That disconnect between price action and positioning is the standout tension in today’s data.

ON WATCH

3 of today's setups are waiting on a range to resolve.
· XAUUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 4,028.17 and 4,510 (10.86% wide); price sits 84% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box.
· XAGUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 56.7 and 67 (15.6% wide); price sits 90% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box.
· BTCUSD — RANGE-BOUND between 62,191.97 and 66,914 (7.43% wide); price sits 29% up it.
No trade until one side breaks — we hold no view inside the box.

THE TAPE

· S&P 500 (SPY) 772.93 (-0.01% day, +0.21% 5d)
· Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 719.69 (-0.16% day, -0.57% 5d)
· Gold 4,458.4 (+2.21% day, +8.86% 5d)
· Bitcoin 64,076.3 (+0.26% day, -0.29% 5d)
· Oil WTI 81.53 (-0.73% day, +7.60% 5d)
· EUR/USD 1.15473 (-0.08% day, +0.35% 5d)
10y real yield 2.43% · next catalyst: GDP m/m 2026-08-13

POSITIONING & ODDS — WHAT THE CROWD EXPECTS

COT 52-week index (report 2026-08-04) — crowded SHORT: EUR 6, CAD 0, NASDAQ 2; crowded LONG: BTC 97. Betting markets price Fed easing 11%, gold higher 21%. (That index runs 0-100 and ranks the last 52 weeks of speculator positioning: 0 is the most short they have been all year, 100 the most long.) Extremes mark crowded rooms — sometimes conviction, sometimes the very trade to fade when it unwinds.

ATTENTION & FLOW — WHERE THE ACTION IS

Across asset classes, relative strength ranks Agriculture strongest and Crypto weakest — leadership, not an observed fund-flow ledger. In crypto, the largest reported weekly volume changes are Robinhood Chain (+32.3% over a week); Sui (+15.8% over a week), with DEUS, APR, PENGU, CRV trending. Activity measures attention, not allocated capital. In equities, SNOW leads and MARA lags — leadership inside the index. In commodities, GOLD leads metals and OIL_BRENT leads energy. This is where the crowd is looking and trading right now — a different axis from where capital sits.

Asset classes, strongest to weakest: agriculture +0.70 · metals +0.51 · intl equity +0.51 · US equity +0.34 · energy +0.06 · the dollar -0.29 · bonds -0.35 · crypto -0.37.

Where the rotation stands: the risk cycle sits at BTC Catches Up, BTC takes the baton from gold. BTC/Gold ratio rising. BTC dominance still high.

Equity sectors, one session's move: Technology +1.91%, Real Estate +0.94%, Innovation +0.92% lead; Energy +0.12%, Consumer Discretionary -1.77% lag (11 ranked).

Crypto narratives, one session's move: Privacy +1.91%, AI +1.69%, Exchange +0.40% lead; Meme -3.52%, DePIN -5.55% lag (11 ranked).

Chains: locked capital growing fastest on Robinhood Chain +16.8%, Stellar +6.1%, Provenance +4.1%; trading volume hottest on Robinhood Chain +32%, Sui +16%, Arbitrum +10%.

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@Altcoinist Indeed, we are $TIBBIR bulls

[Anthony @AnthonyWidodo_]

@Altcoinist Somebody’s gotta do it. 🐸