David Herrmann

AozoraStep Capital LLP - equity turnarounds, special situations & macro

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

US energy consumption over time:
https://t.co/8AlO2lFLZc

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

There are a lot of incentives for MPs to oust the existing PM when they can get a better position. That's part of the problem of the frequent changes in UK leadership. Makes the country uninvestable

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

As an MP in the UK, you literally need no qualifications. One day, you can be health minister, home department secretary or energy secretary, the next day you can be chancellor
https://t.co/yiGzDYTZlH

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: Andy Burnham is choosing between Ed Miliband, Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood to become his Chancellor

[@thetimes]

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

I see bitcoin heading to $30k

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

The bitcoin chart has formed a head and shoulders pattern. Pattern almost looks identical to 2021/22 and is in line with the 4 year halving cycle

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

@calvinfroedge Exxon being down -10% since 11 February I find more incredible

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

This could be a loop hole where Iran sets up a new entity to charge Hormuz Strait tolls, which then would not be sanctioned
https://t.co/TTod4wLbV7

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Senior Iranian official: under draft memorandum, U.S. agrees not to impose new sanctions on Iran until final deal reached

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

My guess would be Anthropic‘s latest model was so good, nobody would be using ChatGPT anymore, which could risk hundreds of $ bn of data centre investments in the US. The continuation of the rally now fully depends on ChatGPT winning the race against Anthropic. Claude>ChatGPT

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

Natural gas pipelines coming online this year to reduce pressure on Waha hub prices
https://t.co/1px3WwbTTw

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

This is how Iran will ultimately be defeated. That's why Trump is confident in a deal and that's why all companies in Japan believe the Strait of Hormuz will be back to normal by end of June

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

So funny reading all these soft oil demand storie suddenly. We have more than 3m bopd released from spr, China's imports are down big time, because their supplies are shut. That's not demand destruction, but supply disruption

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

@anasalhajji 100% agree, just look at the flow through the Bab el-Mandeeb strait. Nothing will be the same anymore, no matter the agreement

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

This is all you need to know...
https://t.co/f7W0FwVvdk

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

What the future of the Strait of Hormuz could look like

https://t.co/DXaxjsDU59

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

Back in 2022 it was when Germany started buying up the LNG from Asia. Now, Netherlands seem to be taking that 1st step. NE currently has 15% gas in storage vs. 36% last year. At 143TWh, NE has relatively large storage tanks (247TWh Germany)
https://t.co/zCOshaD8g2

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

@JavierBlas Synthomer was also surprised about force majeure at Chinese chemical competitors. Perhaps they engineer it to amplify the supply chain crisis?

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

If the UK wants to fix their finances, they should just tax their massive £3.2trn pension assets with some kind of capital gains tax. If one assumes 5% annual return and applies a 10% capital gains tax, the government would receive £16bn per annum
@RachelReevesMP

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

US demands on Iran:
1. US will not pay compensation for damages to Iran
2. Iran must transfer enriched uranium to US
3. Only 1 Iranian nuclear facility will remain operational
4. <25% of Iran’s frozen assets will be released
5. A ceasefire conditioned on continued negotiations

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

That's an interesting one... the profit machine of Bluecrest bought 4.5% of Criteo
https://t.co/MtbJZjVYGb

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

Another summary on impacts:
https://t.co/S5pv98N2AH

[David Herrmann @AozoraStep]

Good summary on chemicals supply disruption due to Strait of Hormuz. This was from one month ago
https://t.co/MVTFn5ppsq