Araragi Trader

[Araragi Trader @AraragiTrader]

I saw a video 5k daw is a no brainer next year? lets see 🤔

[EscapeFromUtopia @utopia_escape]

Well, the signing ceremony hammered $oil to the 200DMA with a short, sharp wick. Will that hold? I think 200DMA/DailyRSI oversold/flag bottom is a powerful combination. Still, it's worth noting I didn't think it would move down this far until flows normalized. So, what do I know?

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

A harsh reality
Are you out to turn a little into a lot in a hurry?
Look folks, there has been tons of research done on the success rate of retail traders. By exchanges, regulatory agencies, brokerage houses, trading platforms, academic researchers and the like.
The numbers are in and you are a fool to begin with if you think your are an outlier -- although all retail traders think they are outliers (and they usually are on the left side of the bell curve distribution).
Expectations and eagerness to trade for the sake of money are inversely correlated with success. Sorry, but true (of course except for in your dream world).
You want to turn $50k into $5 million in five years? Well, go for it if you that is your dream. But know that professional career traders in zero-sum markets (like futures, day trading anything and crypto) plead with you to trade their asset class. Please, I beg you to trade futures (my asset class).
Fresh meat is always welcomed.
Maybe you are among the 2 in 1,000 that can with a few years of experience achieve back-to-back-to back-100% years. I do not want to do anything to prevent your effort. I wish you well. In 50 years I've witnessed many try.
Or, do you have realistic profit expectations and want to become excellent in some niche of market speculation?
Then you have a chance.
But your chance depends on your ability to protect your capital and avoid big losses.
Here is the reality folks -- the real world where 99% of us live.
Pick your asset class. Now have adequate capital (the amt is disputable but I use the figure of $50k). Next know that no matter what you do it will take three to five years to even pick up the scent of where your excellence might be hiding.
Your challenge will be to develop some scheme or system or approach that is repeatable. Every successful trader has a different method. No exceptions. You cannot copy anyone. There are reasons why I won't go into.
You might have to try a few different approaches to find what methods are suitable to you.
But here is the HUGE challenge you face.
You will have to keep your capital intact (relatively speaking) or have deep pockets to get through the three to five years of the steep learning curve.
You will also need to avoid the fast talkers who want you to believe they have your answers.
Following are appeals I received via email in just the past week from "reputable" trading services (these are verbatim):

-$10,000 into $30,417. 14 out of 20 trades doubled
-that's a 1,004% return in 6 days, turning a $605 bet into $6,684
-1004% on UMAC
- +100% on BBAI in a day
-See how stock flips could have made $92,000 in one year!
-Soured 1,025% in just six months
-convinced this could be this year's next 1,000%

You fall for these lines, you are done for. Another reality is that not everyone is made for crazy success in trading. Most people would be better off living frugally and putting as much money as they can into a 50% SPY, 30% fixed income, 10% energy and 10% precious metals portfolio and let it work over time. Then pursue a day job that excites you.

So, don't be conned by the circus acts that promise you the moon. Trading is hard work. Tedious. Boring often. Stressful.

My standard recommendation to most young people is to get an education in a field that you like and where jobs are available. Like welding. Or supply chain management. Or engineering.

98% of you young folks will thank me for this advice someday.

[John Mangun @mangunonmarkets]

What politicians never understand is that energy is not just another sector of the economy.
Energy is the economy
Every industry depends upon it
Food production depends on it
Transportation depends on it
Manufacturing depends on it
Energy sits underneath every layer of economic activity.

[Najam Ali @najam_ali]

I have said all along that Iran’s main interest in the Strait of Hormuz is its own security.

The narrow Strait sits directly along Iran’s borders. Unrestricted hostile naval movement there is a permanent security threat from Tehran’s perspective.

That is why the likely endgame is not permanent closure or tolls on trade.

It is Iran retaining the ability to control and monitor military movement near its coastline while commercial shipping continues.

[John Mangun @mangunonmarkets]

"The Great South China Sea Oil Mirage"

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

Amazing how you can just buy a sector because it's cheap, and then a catalyst just materializes that makes it not cheap

And since you bought at the bottom, you get a ridiculous yield

Cheapness is its own catalyst

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

BRENT TO STAY ABOVE $100 INTO 2026 AS SUPPLY BOTTLENECKS PERSIST

JPMorgan expects Brent crude to hold in the low-$100s through much of 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in June, citing tight inventories and logistical constraints.

The bank says rapid stock draws and seasonal demand will push OECD inventories toward stress levels by August, keeping markets tight despite any reopening. It forecasts Brent averaging $96 in 2026, with peaks above $100 in mid-year quarters.

Analysts also warn that bottlenecks may shift to tanker capacity and refining limits, delaying normalization. Saudi Aramco’s CEO has separately called the current disruption the most severe ever, warning recovery could slip into 2027.

[Yumi🌸 @samuraipips358]

If you feel anger when the market moves against your prediction, realize that the prediction itself is the cause.

When you hold a prediction or an opinion, and things do not go that way, you feel as though your judgment was inferior.
Your ego cannot accept that and resists fiercely.

Trading through probabilistic thinking means accepting the uncertainty of the market and trading based on the idea that if you repeat the same action, profit will remain in the end.
There is no room for prediction or opinion here.

Your prediction about the result in front of you should actually be something like this.
"This strategy has a 40% win rate with positive expectancy, so this trade will probably lose too.
But in the end, profit will remain."

Since you are expecting that any individual trade will lose, you are not hurt when it does.
You are playing a different game altogether.

[Majid Hosseini @m4h007]

Trump cannot make any real formal concessions to Iran.

Here’s why:

Based on the reporting so far, Iranian delegation had come to Islamabad with the view that Iran has won the war, and expected to get major concessions from Vance. They were surprised to find out that Vance isn’t willing to back off from Trump’s original maximalist demands.

Even if Iran’s tactical and strategic wins become far bigger, Trump’s position won’t be different.

First, this won’t be acceptable to Israel and its lobby. Trump will have to explicitly defy Netanyahu and Miriam Adelson, something he has not done.

Nonetheless, let’s assume Trump made a formal agreement to concede any of Iran’s demands in its 10-point list. For the sake of argument, let’s assume Trump signs an agreement with Iran that

A) Iran will not develop nuclear weapons

B) Iran will suspend uranium enrichment for 5 years and after that only at or below 3.67%

C) US accepts Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and a tolling system for 50 years as reparations for the war

D) Iran will downblend its HEU to 3.67%

This is the absolute best deal Trump can get from Iran, and even this is very doubtful, considering the significant leverage Iran has through the control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Democrats and the media would immediately start attacking him for starting an unnecessary war, and giving advantages to Iran that it previously didn’t have. Explicitly, they will blame him for a deal that is objectively worse than JCPOA. Media will agree with them that this is worse than JCPOA.

This will make him even more unpopular. He will be a weak president.

An important observation to make is the multiple War Powers Resolutions that have come to the floor so far. They all instruct Trump to end the war and bring the American soldiers home. Most Democrats have voted for them and most Republicans have voted against.

Democrats will use this fact against every Republican who voted against those War Powers Resolutions. They will use these votes in November and for the foreseeable future.

Every Republican will be attacked for “Enabling a mentally impaired President to launch and continue an unnecessary war that ended up making more concessions than JCPOA to Mullahs and Terrorists in Iran.”

Even if that member survives the November elections, this line will be hammered for as long as that member is in politics, not just for their re-election. Imagine a Congressman aspiring to become a Senator and the Senator with Presidential aspirations.

Think about the countless times people had to recant and regret their vote for the Iraq war. Every one of these War Powers resolutions creates a paper trail that will come back for decades to come.

This is why Democrats push the vote, not because they want to finish the war. Chris Murphy, vehemently anti-war before the war, immediately attacked Trump for accepting Iran’s demands as basis for negotiations. Chuck Schumer followed quickly.

So, at that point, Trump is a weak president with no mandate left, and a Republican party ready to be picked apart by Democrats.

1-Nothing he signs is binding on the United States and can be undone by an act of Congress. An act that these Republicans will gladly join Democrats in voting for. Even if Trump ignores it, the next President can’t.

2- As soon as Democrats win November, they’ll use their power to go after Trump. They won’t be able to remove him through impeachment (needs 67 votes in the senate), but they can open investigations against him and his family. These can be used in 2028 to go after him and his family.
Their results can also be used to attack Congressional Republicans.

This is why Trump can’t sign a formal agreement that is acceptable to Iran. Every agreement to be signed needs to be materially worse than JCPOA for Iran, something Iran will not agree to.

[Vinodsrinivasan @vinodsrinivasan]

Iran just declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open.”

Oil fell 9 percent. Stocks ripped to all-time highs.

Before you celebrate, read the next tweet.

[Yumi🌸 @samuraipips358]

Every time you react to a single loss, you are picking a fight with probability.
And in the long run, probability never loses.

That is why, if you have no rules and are driven by emotions, you will lose your capital "on any chart."
It is not the chart that is the problem.

Refusing to cut a loss out of fear, widening your stop, locking in profit the moment you have a small gain because you are afraid of giving it back, averaging down after a loss… and so on.
These behaviors, driven by your emotions and carrying terrible risk reward, will inevitably blow up no matter how high your win rate is.

Inevitably.
That is probability, and that is why long term results become a certainty.

But think about it the other way.
If you are guaranteed to lose capital no matter what, then the reverse is also true, there is a path for you to succeed over the long term.
That is what I have been saying here, over and over.

Move to "the game of probabilities."
Edge, sample size, these are what make your long term results inevitable.

[Yumi🌸 @samuraipips358]

https://t.co/vHywHiqwCS

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Question for successful traders only:

What is your best advice for new traders still blowing accounts? ⬇️

[Daniel Foubert 🇵🇱🇫🇷 @d_foubert]

BREAKING: Iran says the strait is closed.
BREAKING: Trump says the strait is open.
BREAKING: Hegseth says the strait is open.
BREAKING: Bloomberg says 3 ships crossed.
BREAKING: Iran says those 3 ships are Iranian.
BREAKING: Maersk says it needs clarity.
BREAKING: The strait is a philosophical concept at this point.

BREAKING: A fourth ship attempts to cross.
BREAKING: The fourth ship turns around.
BREAKING: The fourth ship's captain says he "needed to think."
BREAKING: Insurance for the fourth ship is now $47M.
BREAKING: The fourth ship is still thinking.

BREAKING: Trump posts on Truth Social that Hormuz is "TOTALLY OPEN, BEAUTIFUL, LIKE YOU'VE NEVER SEEN."
BREAKING: 800 ships remain trapped in the Gulf.
BREAKING: Trump posts again that this is Biden's fault.

BREAKING: Iran announces tolls of $2M per ship.
BREAKING: Iran announces tolls must be paid in crypto.
BREAKING: Iran has not specified which crypto.
BREAKING: Someone on CT says it's XRP.
BREAKING: XRP is up 34%.
BREAKING: It is not XRP.

BREAKING: Russia and China veto the UN resolution on Hormuz.
BREAKING: Russia proposes an alternative resolution.
BREAKING: The alternative resolution does not mention Hormuz.
BREAKING: Nobody is surprised.

BREAKING: Israel bombs Lebanon.
BREAKING: Iran says this violates the ceasefire.
BREAKING: Trump says the ceasefire does not cover Lebanon.
BREAKING: Netanyahu says the ceasefire does not cover anything Netanyahu is currently doing.
BREAKING: Ceasefire is now 11 hours old.
BREAKING: Iran closes Hormuz again.
BREAKING: Hegseth says the strait is open.

BREAKING: Trump floats joint US-Iran toll venture to manage the strait.
BREAKING: The White House clarifies Trump was "just thinking out loud."
BREAKING: Iran says it will consider the proposal.
BREAKING: Trump says Iran's 10-point peace plan is "not good enough."
BREAKING: Trump says it is "a workable basis."
BREAKING: Both statements were made within the same hour.

BREAKING: 20,000 seafarers are still trapped on ships inside the Gulf.
BREAKING: The IMO says the priority is evacuation.
BREAKING: Iran says passage requires "coordination with armed forces."
BREAKING: Nobody has coordinated with the armed forces.
BREAKING: Hegseth says the strait is open.

BREAKING: The strait remains closed.
BREAKING: This is day 41.
BREAKING: We will keep you updated.

[💎GEM INSIDER💎 @gem_insider]

@coinbureau Iran moments after the ceasefire announcement

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

World’s Largest Oil Chokepoints 🛢

1. 🇲🇾🇸🇬 Strait of Malacca 23.2 Mn B/D

2. 🇴🇲🇮🇷 Strait of Hormuz 20.9 Mn B/D ⚠️

3. 🇿🇦 Cape of Good Hope 9.1 Mn B/D

4. 🇩🇰 Danish Straits 4.9 Mn B/D

5. 🇪🇬 Suez Canal 4.9 Mn B/D ⚠️

6. 🇾🇪🇩🇯 Bab El-Mandeb 4.2 Mn B/D ⚠️

7. 🇹🇷 Turkish Straits - 3.7 Mn B/D

8. 🇵🇦 Panama Canal - 2.3 Mn B/D

Average daily transit measured in million barrels per day

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[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Your trading fears become manageable when your edge has already played out over hundreds of trades.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Goldman on oil.

[The Honest Trader @TheH0n3stTrader]

He risked 20% on one trade.

“High conviction”, he said.

The setup looked perfect.

Breakout.
Volume.
Momentum.

Everything aligned.

He entered.
Fast.

Price moved up.

He smiled.

“See?”

Then it stalled.

Just a pause, he thought.

Then it dropped.

Small at first.
Then faster.

His account shook.

-10%.
-20%.

He froze.

“I’ll wait. It has to come back. It's too bullish.”

It didn’t.

-30%.
-40%.

Now fear.
Real fear.

He closed.
Too late.

Half his account was gone.

Silence.

No posts.
No messages.

Just a lesson.

From that day, he started risking a maximum of 2% per trade.

And he had a real edge.

So his account started growing consistently.

Month after month.

Someone asked him:

“What changed?”

He answered:

“I stopped trying to be right.”

Pause.

“I started trying to survive.”

That guy is my brother.

He's now a consistently profitable trader.