Arbitrage*Macro

macro charts (& Jobs!) in Markets & Economics. Recruit with us or send your CV to ChrisA@arb, Rick@arb

[Arbitrage*Macro @ArbitrageSearch]

World first: AI Economist.

We're building an AI that thinks like an Economist — real-time forecasts, macro strategy, central bank watching and market intelligence at institutional grade.

Designed for economists, strategists, and portfolio managers.

Join the waitlist for early access:
https://t.co/jkgI8X3fWT

If you have questions, post below

[Arbitrage*Macro @ArbitrageSearch]

What I find amazing these days, with pod risk & drawdown limits is George Soros would be unemployable.

Arguably the inventor and greatest legend in Macro Trading history would never be hired by any of these pod groups.
-Chris

[Quantіan @quantian1]

Junior pod shop interview question. You are a risk manager at Exodasnylennium72, and you have just hired 100 PMs away from Citadel. Each one swears they were the top pod and have massive alpha but all actually have random Sharpe from N(0,0.5) and random vol from 10-30%.

[Arbitrage*Macro @ArbitrageSearch]

Anecdote on using Perplexity and Claude in a major bank:

"At work we have something similar but it’s heavily vetted / restricted by [the bank] so basically doesn’t work properly"

[ℏεsam @Hesamation]

Mythos, regulate something.

make no mistakes.

[Hanno Lustig @HannoLustig]

Chart of the day from Robin Wigglesworth at FT Alphaville..Insiders want out --my interpretation. (also see Katie Martin’s column https://t.co/MSMeKCe0BC

[JTheretohelp1 @JTheretohelp1]

S&P average single-stock 1m put-call skew has now collapsed to the lowest level in Goldman Sachs entire dataset.

Translation: Everyone is a bull.

Source: Goldman Sachs

[Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl]

Earnings Before Tokens

[Arbitrage*Macro @ArbitrageSearch]

But the deal is already priced in?

[Emmanuel – Big Tech & AI Investor @EmmanuelInvest]

🔴Trump: We're not there yet on an Iran deal. We're not satisfied with it.

[Arbitrage*Macro @ArbitrageSearch]

@darioperkins @MarketBlondes Grok says 4-7%

[LinkedIn Lunatics @LinkedInLunat1c]

Marathon and B2B Sales

[Arbitrage*Macro @ArbitrageSearch]

@YahooFinance @TonyRobbins Is this the top?

[Barchart @Barchart]

Copper on track for its highest monthly closing price in history 📈📈

[Arbitrage*Macro @ArbitrageSearch]

@MarkYusko It's sounding like Bill Hwang's leverage

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Tech sector ETFs have taken in $23b while every other sector has basically gotten nothing since Feb, nice chart from @Todd_Sohn

[Arbitrage*Macro @ArbitrageSearch]

@ceprdc @DeanBaker13 Similar skeptics existed over Uber

[Jungle Rock @JungleRockRes]

Today's research pick:
Garg, Famiglietti. 2025. Monetary Transmission in Equity Markets: Evidence from Financial Intermediaries. SSRN.
https://t.co/gW4gACylTO

[Päivän Byrokraatti @pbyrokraatti]

Muistutus: Kun Suomi otti aikanaan käyttöön Avoir fiscal -yritysverojärjestelmän 1990 ja siten alensi yritystulon efektiivisen verotuksen 42 %:sta 25 %:iin, verokertymä kahdeksankertaistui.

[Arbitrage*Macro @ArbitrageSearch]

@TheStalwart @jrosenfeld13 Is all human thought just an algo? 😐

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

"Whenever it starts to reopen, resuming supplies through the strait is not a case of flicking a switch. With no export ability, many oilfields were fully shut in; S&P Global estimates that some could take seven months to restart. Some resumed oil flows will have to go into rebuilding reserves.

Roughly 2,000 ships stranded in the Gulf will need to reposition and offload cargoes... it will take at least four months for traffic volumes through the strait to recover to 80% of prewar levels, with full normalisation hard before the first half of 2027. Demining will take months." https://t.co/95frfauLlU

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

🚨Corpus Christi's reservoirs are at 7% and 10% capacity.

The city that hosts some of America's largest oil refineries and chemical plants and LNG hub may cut water supply by 25% starting June.

2 compounding crises, same country, same month:

The Trump administration is preparing to impose Colorado River water cuts of up to 40% on Arizona, Nevada, and California.

A 20 year drought has finally broken the century old Colorado River Compact.

Corpus Christi population 500,000, home to major refineries and petrochemical plants is running dry. 2/3 reservoirs at historic lows.

The industrial exposure is underappreciated

Corpus Christi is a critical node in US energy infrastructure refineries, chemical plants, LNG export facilities.

All of them need water to operate.

25% water cuts to industrial users isn't an environmental story.

It's an energy supply story.

Connect this to the AI x water story in my latest article.

AI will add 30 trillion liters of water demand annually by 2050 driven by power generation cooling and semiconductor fabrication.

The US is building the world's AI infrastructure in a country whose water systems are already under structural stress.

That's why nobody sees this coming until a reservoir hits 7%.

Link for the full article in the comments 👇