Archimede CM

Archimede CM 50% Strategic Quality Growth stocks 30% Tactical Macro Trading 20% Hedge/Cash Management Tweets are my views not advise to invest.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

The priciest name vs its own history is the slowest grower. The cheapest are the fastest growers.

Not what a bubble looks like. The risk I watch: energy and geopolitics, via inflation and rates.

Which multiple looks most out of place to you?

Not investment advice.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

The most expensive Big Tech stock vs its own history isn't $NVDA.

It's $AAPL: 36.5x forward earnings vs a 10-year median of 27.4x, for +11% EPS growth.

$NVDA: 14.6x vs 45.8x, with consensus at +109%.

10 names, 10 years of P/E + the next 12 months 🧵

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

$TSLA 190x fwd, $SPCX 42x fwd, $NBIS losing money.

For these three, P/E measures faith in the future, not the price of today's earnings.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

@jukan05 Good catch on the timing. The irony: the same memory squeeze that hits Intel's PC guide is driving record numbers at SanDisk and SK hynix. Server CPU units +30% in 2026 and 2027 says the AI side is intact; the client side pays for it.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

@KobeissiLetter Worth separating the quarter from the guide: Intel beat Q3 ($0.52 vs $0.40 EPS) and data center grew 78%. The hit is Q4, with PC demand squeezed by memory prices. That's a memory-cycle story, not an AI-demand one.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

@saxena_puru Agree the demand is there: a $578B AWS backlog says so. The gap I'd watch is the cost of funding it. A 10-year near 5%, a December hike priced and Brent above $115 make every quarter of negative FCF more expensive. Bullish on the build, selective on who pays for it.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

@munster_gene Agree on the message, and a 40%+ AWS guide for 2027 and 2028 is the strongest datapoint of the season. But the Street is pricing the bill: −$42.4B TTM FCF and more capex in 2027. Long-term bullish; near term the stock trades on cash, with oil above $115 keeping rates high.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

3/ Brent above $115, up ~14% in October. Per the WSJ, the US warned Gulf allies of a short Iran campaign after the Nov 3 midterms.

Today: Employment Cost Index at 8:30am ET. $AAPL reports Monday.

Sources: company releases, Saxo, Reuters, WSJ. Not investment advice.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

1/ Market brief, Oct 30: markets want the cash.

Nasdaq 100 futures −2.4%. $GOOGL closed −12.6% yesterday, its worst day ever, on FCF of −$9.1B. $AMZN −7% premarket on −$42.4B TTM FCF. Both plan to spend more on capex in 2027.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

2/ Demand is not the problem: AWS +39% with a $578B backlog, Google Cloud doubled to $30.7B.

$INTC −24% premarket: Q3 beat, but a weak Q4 guide as pricey memory hits PC demand. Its data center unit grew 78%.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

The Q4 guide includes ~$300M of lost revenue and ~2 pts of gross margin from the Kiryat Gat fab explosion in Israel. The CFO sees the PC slowdown lasting through H1 2027.

2026 capex raised to $20B. No positive FCF expected in 2027, but data center supply stays tight into 2028.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

$INTC Q3: AI booms, guidance busts.

Revenue $16.51B, in line
Adj. EPS $0.52 vs $0.40
Gross margin 44.1% vs 42% guide
Data Center & AI +78% to $7.3B
PC chips $8.10B vs $8.98B

Q4 guide: revenue $15–16B vs $17.07B, EPS $0.25 vs $0.43.

Stock −21.8% after hours.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

Capex hit $77.3B in the quarter vs ~$58.7B expected, and Jassy says 2027 will be "meaningfully more" than ~$220B. He sees AWS growing over 40% in both 2027 and 2028.

After Alphabet's search miss, the ad shortfall is the second sign this week that the consumer is slowing.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

$AMZN Q3: AWS accelerates, ads disappoint.

Revenue $201.94B vs $202.31B
EPS $1.89 vs $1.96
AWS $45.98B (+39%) vs $45.29B
Ads $19.64B vs $20.82B
Record 13.9% operating margin
Q4 revenue guide $240–247B vs $244.51B

Stock −5.7% after hours.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

@amitisinvesting Small nuance: the 2026 range is $195–205B, and 2027 has no number yet, details come with Q4. Until then the market prices the worst case. Holding Q3 margins and today's multiple, my model still sees ~+9% for $GOOGL over 12 months. Not advice.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

@RihardJarc Growth rates hide the scale: Azure added ~$11B y/y on a $33B base, Google Cloud ~$15.5B on $30.7B. The real gap is cash: $MSFT stays FCF positive. Using management guidance, my model has $MSFT ~+18% and $GOOGL ~+9% over 12 months. Not advice.

[Archimede CM @ArchimedeCM]

@zerohedge Plausible on growth, but the market is pricing the cash cost first: FCF −$9.1B, LT debt $125B (with $265B of cash). The bigger risk for the AI trade is energy: oil above $100 keeps inflation and the 10-year at 5% sticky. My guidance-based model still has $GOOGL ~+9%.