Essentric investing

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@GerberKawasaki Rather not spend tax payer money on Ukraine

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@atrupar @grok is this real life or actual skit?

[Ross Gerber @GerberKawasaki]

Let's be real. Micron has supply contacts for years out. Tons of demand and new Chinese "tech" isn't going to change one thing. Nor would I want to use Chinese memory chips for security reasons... $MU

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@BoyForida Hahahaha imagine believing government stats on covid

[Melvin @MelvinInvests]

This chart is exactly why I think the sell off in memory stocks over China's CXMT announcement is a massive overreaction.

According to HSBC's projections, even AFTER accounting for additional DRAM production coming from China, the global DRAM market is STILL expected to remain undersupplied through 2028 and look at what happens when you exclude new Chinese supply. The shortage becomes significantly worse, with the DRAM supply deficit approaching 8% by the end of 2028.

I think people are seriously underestimating just how much DRAM we're going to need over the next several years. DRAM is used across everything from traditional servers to AI data centers, and HBM is essentially a more advanced form of DRAM designed to deliver the enormous memory bandwidth that AI accelerators need. As hyperscalers continue spending hundreds of billions of dollars building AI infrastructure, demand for both conventional DRAM and HBM is expected to grow significantly.

And here's another thing, HBM production competes for manufacturing capacity with conventional DRAM, meaning the more resources manufacturers allocate toward HBM, the less capacity they may have available for traditional DRAM products. That's another reason why supply could remain tight even as manufacturers continue expanding production. Now, China can absolutely increase its conventional DRAM capacity, but that doesn't mean it can suddenly compete with the most advanced HBM products being manufactured by Micron $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix.
And even WITH additional Chinese supply factored into HSBC's projections, the broader DRAM market is still expected to face shortages.

Obviously, these are forecasts and things can change, but I don't see how CXMT announcing a new memory architecture suddenly changes the supply and demand picture overnight. I've been saying this for months. The amount of memory we're going to need over the next decade is INSANE. Still extremely bullish on the memory industry,

If you enjoyed reading this, make sure to follow me @MelvinInvests and turn on notifications!

[Vrhunske Price @vrhunskeprice]

Donald Trump Blocks Zelensky's Next Move 😂

Made with AI, just for fun.

#DonaldTrump #Zelensky #VladimirPutin #Funny #Reels

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@unusual_whales Hahahahahhahahaha

[Drew @AllegedlyDrew]

Why didn’t Zelenskyy hit any LNG refineries?

Oh that’s because Europe needs it and they are currently buying record amounts from Putin.

America needs diesel??? Blow it up.

Zelenskyy is a rat 🐀

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@SOSFLNOON3 Vote yes Zuckerberg won’t benefit from it tho this is reverse propaganda

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

As I wrote a year and a half ago, Zelensky is incapable of making peace. Elections in Ukraine are long overdue.

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@JeffreyBrandes Vote yes! U can pay more no one stopping you

[Anna Paulina Luna @realannapaulina]

The oil deal with the US and Russia will massively benefit the American people. Anyone saying otherwise is playing mental gymnastics. Lots of diesel will be coming to the US. The war in Ukraine and the continued lack of support for the peace deal from paid pundits and sociopaths have resulted in thousands dying, an increase in our deficit, etc. The US cannot afford to continue aiding a conflict where “no end in sight” is the modus operandi. That is crazy. Ukraine could greatly benefit as well by accepting the peace deal terms. This war needs to end—for all parties involved.

[Melvin @MelvinInvests]

I think bank stocks could be heading into some serious trouble and the bond market is one of the biggest reasons why.

The 10 year Treasury yield has now climbed above 5.2%, and that's creating a pretty interesting problem for banks. When Treasury yields rise, the value of existing bonds falls. That's a problem because banks hold enormous amounts of Treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities that were purchased when interest rates were much lower.

For example, imagine a bank bought billions of dollars worth of bonds paying 3% interest. Now investors can buy newly issued bonds paying over 5%. Those older bonds become less attractive, so their market value drops. And we're already seeing the damage. U.S. banks were sitting on nearly $330 billion in unrealized securities losses at the end of Q2 2026 but it gets worse.

Higher Treasury yields also mean banks have to compete harder to keep customer deposits. Why leave your money in a savings account paying very little when you can earn around 5% in government bonds or other non traditional banks that are paying much more ? That forces banks to offer higher deposit rates, increasing their costs. At the same time, higher borrowing costs can slow mortgage demand, hurt businesses, and eventually increase loan defaults. So banks could find themselves dealing with falling bond values, higher funding costs, and weaker lending demand all at once.

And we're already seeing investors react, just look at bank stocks. $JPM is down nearly 11%, $BAC is down almost 19%, $WFC is down 18%, and $C is down nearly 15%, even as Wall Street expects some of the biggest banks to report strong earnings.

Now, I'm not saying we're heading into another 2022 banking crisis. Banks are generally better positioned today, and rising rates can still benefit some lenders but I do think the bond market is flashing a warning sign that investors shouldn't ignore, especially when it comes to smaller regional banks. If you enjoyed reading this, make sure to follow me @MelvinInvests for more.

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@AdamKinzinger Fuck u Adam why are you not on the front lines?

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@HormuzLetter Fuck the coked out criminal why isn’t he on the front lines?

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@KennethPerepel1 @zerohedge The EU is about to fail so it won’t matter where is Europe going to get energy from? Europe is being invaded and the nothing is being done good luck

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@adamscochran Imagine believing your own propaganda

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@MarioNawfal Who’s going to pay for his coke addiction after the war ends?

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@porterstansb @RossGivens_ Very unlikely that occurs

[Essentric investing @ArdenAsset]

@KennethPerepel1 @zerohedge Who are you bullshitting here Ukraine is an impoverished 3rd world nation that has literally been given a trillion dollars to fight Russia. Meanwhile ur fake death rates are propagating while ur people are ethnically cleansed by ur own leader . Why isn’t he on the front line?