Ardii

CMT (Lev I) & Classical Chartist of 10 years | $BTC trader since
2016 | Technical Analysis & Market Structure.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

For the last eight months, people have been telling me I'm wrong.

That we're not in a bear market.

That BTC is going to new all-time highs.

That I'm going to miss the next bull run.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

For the last eight months, people have been telling me I'm wrong.

That we're not in a bear market.

That BTC is going to new all-time highs.

That I'm going to miss the next bull run.

That this cycle is somehow different from every other bear market we've seen over the last decade.

Through all of that, we still had 30% rallies and most of Crypto Twitter betting against my view.

I never changed my positioning.

I trust my process more than I trust consensus.

Every rally, every rejection, every dump. Called publicly, in real time, on this profile.

So to everyone who spent the last eight months telling me I was wrong...

Thank you.

Because I've realised something important.

The more people tell me I'm wrong, the more likely I'm going to end up being right.

🤟

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

For the last eight months, people have been telling me I'm wrong.

That we're not in a bear market.

That BTC is going to new all-time highs.

That I'm going to miss the next bull run.

That this cycle is somehow different from every other bear market we've seen over the last decade.

Through all of that, we still had 30% rallies and most of Crypto Twitter betting against my view.

I never changed my positioning.

I trust my process more than I trust consensus.

Every rally, every rejection, every dump. Called publicly, in real time, on this profile.

So to everyone who spent the last eight months telling me I was wrong...

Thank you.

Because I've realised something important.

The more people tell me I'm wrong, the more likely I'm going to end up being right.

🤟

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

And there's the $BTC flush to $63.5K. 🎯

You were warned.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

And there's the $BTC flush to $63.5K. 🎯

You were warned.

🫡

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

I’m watching for a potential flush here on $BTC.

Our expected higher low has now formed at $64.5K, right on the rising trendline that has supported every higher low since the lows.

That gives us a potential compound breakdown setup at the same pivot.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

I’m watching for a potential flush here on $BTC.

Our expected higher low has now formed at $64.5K, right on the rising trendline that has supported every higher low since the lows.

That gives us a potential compound breakdown setup at the same pivot.

As long as both supports hold, I still expect another attempt at the range highs near $67K.

If BTC loses both the trendline and horizontal support, I’d expect a sweep back into the $63.5K region in an attempt to rebalance upside liquidity.

My compound breakdown setup has been extremely reliable throughout this range, so this is the key structure to watch from here.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

What would convince me that $57K was the final $BTC cycle low?

A break above $75K would be the earliest real indication.

That is the neckline of the prior range's double bottom. Reclaiming it would begin invalidating the higher-timeframe downtrend established from $126K.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

What would convince me that $57K was the final $BTC cycle low?

A break above $75K would be the earliest real indication.

That is the neckline of the prior range's double bottom. Reclaiming it would begin invalidating the higher-timeframe downtrend established from $126K.

However, the breakout alone would not be enough.

BTC would then need to sustain an extended rally or range sideways for several months.

Similar to the February rally, time would need to start working in favour of the bottoming thesis.

Right now, too much still argues against it.

We have not experienced a genuine bottoming phase or late capitulation. BTC has simply been grinding lower.

It would be the shallowest bear-market drawdown, roughly three months earlier than any previous cycle bottom, while the broader market structure remains in a bearish downtrend.

We're also now seeing markets pricing the equivalent of roughly two further rate hikes by year-end, which creates additional windows where macro conditions could lean against risk assets like BTC.

For $57K to remain the cycle low, BTC may need to survive all of this while holding its structure for more than three months.

It is possible.

But until $75K breaks and time begins confirming the move, $57K remains a major low, not necessarily the final low.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

$BTC

Surprisingly, we have not yet seen aggressive new shorts enter the market.

Open Interest Delta expanded during the breakout toward $67K, indicating that fresh long positions entered as price moved higher.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

$BTC

Surprisingly, we have not yet seen aggressive new shorts enter the market.

Open Interest Delta expanded during the breakout toward $67K, indicating that fresh long positions entered as price moved higher.

That new exposure ultimately helped drive BTC into the $67K resistance.

Since the rejection, Open Interest Delta has turned slightly negative, while Transfer of Contracts, which measures how much existing exposure is changing hands without increasing total Open Interest, has cooled considerably.

So simply put, we are not seeing a large rotation into fresh bearish positioning.

We are seeing the market clear the late long leverage that entered during the breakout.

If BTC breaks $67K and Open Interest begins expanding again, I think we're going to see a considerable upside move.

Late longs get punished before continuation.

Until then, do not be surprised if the market continues clearing downside liquidity first.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

Your job is not to time the exact $BTC bottom.

The true bottom will exist for a few hours, if you’re lucky.

And when it arrives, price will look its worst, sentiment will be unbearable and every reason you spent months waiting to buy will suddenly feel wrong.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

Your job is not to time the exact $BTC bottom.

The true bottom will exist for a few hours, if you’re lucky.

And when it arrives, price will look its worst, sentiment will be unbearable and every reason you spent months waiting to buy will suddenly feel wrong.

Statistically, you will hesitate.

Then price moves 10-20% higher and you start waiting for a retest that never comes.

This is why serious players do not build positions around one perfect candle.

They build exposure inside a macro zone, manage their size and leave enough capital to survive being early.

The goal is not to prove you bought the lowest tick.

The goal is to position where the upside outweighs the remaining downside without blowing yourself up if price moves lower first.

So trust me when I say this.

The perfect bottom is rarely handed to you on a platter.

Managing your risk is how you stay positioned for the next cycle.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

It’s been nice riding with the bulls lately.

2/2 public $BTC longs from the lows.

$62.5K > $64.5K.

$64.8K > $66.8K, with $69K-$70K still in play.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

It’s been nice riding with the bulls lately.

2/2 public $BTC longs from the lows.

$62.5K > $64.5K.

$64.8K > $66.8K, with $69K-$70K still in play.

I’m bearish when the chart tells me to be bearish and bullish when the chart tells me to be bullish.

I'm here to make money. And refusing to adapt is expensive.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

Every $BTC relief rally during this bear market has either tested or temporarily deviated above the Bull Market Support Band.

It currently sits around $69K-$70K.

If we invalidate the daily swing at $67K, then I think a third test of the band comes into play.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

Every $BTC relief rally during this bear market has either tested or temporarily deviated above the Bull Market Support Band.

It currently sits around $69K-$70K.

If we invalidate the daily swing at $67K, then I think a third test of the band comes into play.

Unable to flip $67K, and we remain capped below HTF resistance.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

This is how I believe the final phase of the $BTC cycle unfolds.

Rally into August. One final correction into late September.

Build the cycle floor during Q4.

Then reclaim the long-term downtrend and begin the next cycle.

We’re not far. ✌️

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

This is how I believe the final phase of the $BTC cycle unfolds.

Rally into August. One final correction into late September.

Build the cycle floor during Q4.

Then reclaim the long-term downtrend and begin the next cycle.

We’re not far. ✌️

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

This is how I believe the final phase of the $BTC cycle unfolds.

Rally into August. One final correction into late September.

Build the cycle floor during Q4.

Then reclaim the long-term downtrend and begin the next cycle.

We’re not far. ✌️

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

Don't overcomplicate this $BTC price action.

Three weeks of higher lows pressing into the same range resistance.

Every dip getting bought at a higher level than the last.

Based on the current structure, the break is the next logical scenario.

🤟

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

Don't overcomplicate this $BTC price action.

Three weeks of higher lows pressing into the same range resistance.

Every dip getting bought at a higher level than the last.

Based on the current structure, the break is the next logical scenario.

🤟

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

$BTC

While everyone has been watching price chop inside the same range, the participants behind the move have been trading in completely opposite directions.

Retail-sized spot orders have recorded roughly $604M in net selling.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

$BTC

While everyone has been watching price chop inside the same range, the participants behind the move have been trading in completely opposite directions.

Retail-sized spot orders have recorded roughly $604M in net selling.

Mid-sized orders are sitting slightly negative at around $25M delta.

Meanwhile, the largest order-size cohort has accumulated more than $1.4B in positive volume delta.

In simple terms, smaller participants have been selling the range while significantly larger buyers have absorbed that supply.

That helps explain why BTC has continued forming higher lows despite repeated attempts to push price lower.

Does this guarantee a breakout? No.

But if BTC reclaims $64.8K while this divergence remains intact, the move would have genuine large-order spot demand supporting it.

The warning sign is the opposite. If large-order delta begins falling while retail selling accelerates, the absorption is weakening and the range becomes far more vulnerable.

For now, the larger orders are still buying what the smaller orders are selling.

Worth paying attention to as the range develops.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

I’m a HTF $BTC bear.

So how am I the one trying to convince people to be bullish here?

Reclaim $64.8K, and two weeks of shorts become trapped inside the same range they’ve been betting would break down.

It’s the Law of Positioning.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

I’m a HTF $BTC bear.

So how am I the one trying to convince people to be bullish here?

Reclaim $64.8K, and two weeks of shorts become trapped inside the same range they’ve been betting would break down.

It’s the Law of Positioning.

The same people positioned for the breakdown become fuel for the breakout.

You don’t have to be bullish on the cycle to understand what happens next.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

I’m a HTF $BTC bear.

So how am I the one trying to convince people to be bullish here?

Reclaim $64.8K, and two weeks of shorts become trapped inside the same range they’ve been betting would break down.

It’s the Law of Positioning.

The same people positioned for the breakdown become fuel for the breakout.

You don’t have to be bullish on the cycle to understand what happens next.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

The purpose of a flush is not simply to move price lower.

It is to make lower prices feel inevitable.

$BTC came very close to invalidating my long at $62.5K.

But at the exact moment the flush looked most dangerous, I said it wasn’t the time to panic.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

The purpose of a flush is not simply to move price lower.

It is to make lower prices feel inevitable.

$BTC came very close to invalidating my long at $62.5K.

But at the exact moment the flush looked most dangerous, I said it wasn’t the time to panic.

The crowd did the opposite and started shorting the breakdown as though it had already happened.

Instead, BTC followed the expected path, formed another higher low and climbed straight back toward range continuation.

Which means that if BTC reclaims the top of the range, the same shorts opened against my trade likely become the fuel needed to carry it through the range and toward my targets.

Still, it’s too early to celebrate.

Patience. 🤝

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

The purpose of a flush is not simply to move price lower.

It is to make lower prices feel inevitable.

$BTC came very close to invalidating my long at $62.5K.

But at the exact moment the flush looked most dangerous, I said it wasn’t the time to panic.

The crowd did the opposite and started shorting the breakdown as though it had already happened.

Instead, BTC followed the expected path, formed another higher low and climbed straight back toward range continuation.

Which means that if BTC reclaims the top of the range, the same shorts opened against my trade likely become the fuel needed to carry it through the range and toward my targets.

Still, it’s too early to celebrate.

Patience. 🤝

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

Retail $BTC long positions are now at their lowest levels since May.

Institutional long positions are now at their highest levels since May.

Interesting.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

Retail $BTC long positions are now at their lowest levels since May.

Institutional long positions are now at their highest levels since May.

Interesting.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

I say this with very high confidence.

$ZEC will trade above $1,000 again.

Zoom out far enough and this is barely a prediction.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

I say this with very high confidence.

$ZEC will trade above $1,000 again.

Zoom out far enough and this is barely a prediction.

[Ardii @ArdiNNSC]

My $BTC trade plan has not changed.

Break $64.8K, and use trapped shorts to ride the move towards $67K.

It's only a matter of time.

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

My $BTC trade plan has not changed.

Break $64.8K, and use trapped shorts to ride the move towards $67K.

It's only a matter of time.