Arena Markets

A self-funding prediction market for the on-chain attention economy. 6aNP4NES72we1qVqgtgkMv6u47ws824jbsfVcYBKpump

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

https://t.co/qRxMrwwR2B

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

a build update from the gates of $ARENA.

WHAT'S LIVE: ▸ the protocol — every endpoint, every cron, every escrow.
▸ trade, seed, and resolution flows — validated end-to-end on mainnet with real SOL.
▸ short-cycle markets — SOL, BTC, ETH on 5-min directional cycles, pyth-settled, born live with 0.4 SOL seed each.
▸ dual-flywheel infra — cron-claim-creator, cron-seed, cron-sweep, cron-crank all wired and armed.
▸ verifiability — every wallet, every escrow, every payout linkable to solscan.

WHAT WE'RE DOING TONIGHT:
▸ recalibrating strikes as spot moves. fast feedback, fast fixes.
▸ growing seed depth so the curves flatten and the markets feel right.

WHAT'S STILL TO BUILD:
▸ user-facing market creation UI — currently protocol-only.
▸ longer short cycles (15m, 1h, 4h) once 5m is bulletproof.
▸ seeder dashboard — your positions, your fees, your APY across markets.
▸ broader KOL coverage and resolution sources.
▸ mobile polish across the whole app.

we're a few hours into this. the foundation is solid, the surface is rough, and we're filing the rough edges down in real time.

patience is the ask.
brick by brick is the method.

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

ARENA hotfixes shipped: 05.09.26

▸ recalibrated all price strikes to current spot — no more arbitrage-by-default markets
https://t.co/DNevbiuNv8

▸ rewired short-cycle spawner so seed transfer confirms BEFORE market goes live (was a strand-on-failure bug)
https://t.co/zZ8fRmATnL

▸ added the no-winner escrow recycle path — this is what actually makes "untraded markets recycle their seed" possible
https://t.co/Qh8ur2lIlu

▸ fixed Pyth resolution fallback for older markets with drifted threshold storage
https://t.co/wY9z3rtx8r

▸ patched a stale Dune query that was nuking the graduates chart
https://t.co/MvqFXHuPgD

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

just submitted $ARENA for Jupiter @jupiterexchange VRFD verification.

tx:
https://t.co/qX6U9qw4zv

what this unlocks for the protocol:
▸ verified badge across every wallet and aggregator that pulls Jupiter's token list — Phantom, Solflare, Backpack, Photon, BullX, every bot
▸ surfaces in Jupiter swap UI directly — anyone routing through Jupiter sees clean metadata, logo, links
▸ removes the "is this real" friction for every new wallet that arrives at https://t.co/Cd3qCDCoeS

verified tokens earn the trust signal.
$ARENA 6aNP4NES72we1qVqgtgkMv6u47ws824jbsfVcYBKpump

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

alon @a1lon9 naming the exact problems we built ARENA to fix:

▸ liquidity — fixed by dynamic-b LMSR + creator fees that auto-seed every market on the protocol. the more $ARENA trades, the deeper every market gets.

▸ resolution drag — fixed by 5-minute pyth-settled directional cycles. no committees, no end-of-year. pay out in a single tx.

▸ single-digit caps — fixed by velocity. 12 cycles/hr, compound the wins, exit any time.

predictions that resolve at memecoin tempo.

attention is fast. ARENA is the first prediction market built to match it.

https://t.co/Cd3qCDCoeS
$ARENA 6aNP4NES72we1qVqgtgkMv6u47ws824jbsfVcYBKpump

[alon @a1lon9]

Option 1: trade the prediction market

The *most* popular prediction market only has ~$1m in volume so far, meaning that there’s little liquidity to trade with.

Resolution could drag on for months or even until the end of the year, meaning that there’s significant opportunity cost associated with this trade.

Furthermore, trades like this are are usually capped at single-digit Xs.

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

ARENA pays its market makers.

while traders wait for cycles to resolve, the protocol is paying seeders — anyone who deposits SOL into a market — 1% of every trade that flows through it. pro-rata. time-weighted. principal back at resolution.

you're not parking SOL. you're the curve. dynamic-b LMSR scales with your seed: more depth → flatter book → better fills → more trades → more LP fees → repeat.

on top of that:
▸ market creators earn 0.5% of every trade on markets they spin up. permanent.
▸ traders get true 50/50 markets, settled by pyth in a single tx.
▸ untraded markets sweep their seed back automatically — failed cycles fund successful ones.

the entire system self-funds: $ARENA fees seed liquidity, prediction fees buy + burn $ARENA. the more volume, the more markets we can run.

early seeders set the depth before the volume arrives.

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

how it self-funds:

$ARENA trades → creator fees → seed wallet → market liquidity
market trades → 5% fee → buy + burn $ARENA

and if a market goes untraded, the seed sweeps back to the wallet on resolve and re-deploys into the next cycle. nothing is wasted. every unused dollar funds the next round of markets.

more $ARENA volume = more creator fees = more markets we can run in parallel. that is the whole point. self-seeding by design.

https://t.co/ULW6Yt1Ilb

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

thank you for the patience.

tonight the first short-horizon markets are live:

SOL, BTC, ETH — 5-minute directional cycles, strike anchored at mark price at spawn. true 50/50, settled by pyth.

$ARENA 🟢 SOL: https://t.co/wD63spKa05 🟢 BTC: https://t.co/crdilqBND0 🟢 ETH: https://t.co/TBAXuOexuE

a fresh cycle every 5 minutes. we're watching every payout.

brick by brick. the chain is the judge.

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

to those already at the gates — thank you.

the protocol is up. wallets sign cleanly. trades settle on-chain. seeders earn LP fees in real time. resolutions pay out in a single tx. every wallet, every escrow, every payout — visible on solscan.

what we're doing next: the first short-horizon markets.

we will begin by seeding the first 5 short-term resolution markets 1m/5m/15m/1h – watching every payout, fixing what bends.

we're asking for your patience. this is brick by brick. coliseums aren't built in a night, and the ones worth standing in never are.

if you believe in the vision — markets where the chain is the judge, no curators, no committees, no delays — stay close. we'll earn it.

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

$ARENA is live.

6aNP4NES72we1qVqgtgkMv6u47ws824jbsfVcYBKpump

A self-funding prediction market for the on-chain attention economy.

Prediction markets on KOLs, launchpads, and prices. seeded by creator fees, burned by trade fees.

two flywheels. one protocol. open code.

web: https://t.co/Cd3qCDCoeS
git: https://t.co/sQzBMPXety

[Arena Markets @ArenaMarket_SOL]

https://t.co/qRxMrwwR2B