Pasgethen #4560

Casual FinTwit
Follow me on TikTok: @pasgethen4560

[GrainStats 🌾 @GrainStats]

so everyone is talking about fixing the ag trade deficit

doesn't seem like if the US exports more grain/oilseeds or stops importing beef/cattle from abroad will fix much of anything to be honest (see chart)

what is then driving the ag trade deficit then?

Horticultural Products, Sugar, and Tropical Products🍊🍷🥑

"USDA projects that horticultural products, including fruits, vegetables, nuts, wine and other alcohols, will account for approximately 49% of total agricultural imports by value. These products reflect consumer preferences for variety and year-round availability and highlight the role of trade in maintaining a stable food supply.

Strong U.S. demand for high-value, consumer-ready products, many of which are not widely produced domestically, has driven up import values, while a large share of U.S. exports remain lower-value bulk commodities, contributing to the growing trade imbalance."

basically the market says consumers wants stuff that isn't grown or cannot be grown in the US at a competitive rate year round🤷

i speculate that this never gets fixed at this rate because the US Farmer+Rancher does not want to be in the position to sell the cheapest goods on the block and even if they do, it won't change anything given the numbers (see chart)

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

🇲🇾 Malaysia Holiday Notice🇲🇾

We wish to inform you that Bursa Malaysia will be closed on Monday, 20 October 2025 in conjunction with
the Deepavali public holiday. Trading will resume on Tuesday, 21 October 2025.

Happy Holiday!

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

FCPO today -
Bullish above RM4,543
Bearish below RM4,497
Sideways between RM4,543-RM4,497

#FCPO #PalmOil

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

Closing thought:
Fertility rates are falling. Parents today work harder than ever to provide their precious child with the material comforts they lacked.
But too often, the mental needs of the child are neglected.

That neglect is now showing up—in tragic ways.

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

Deviating from my usual palm oil posts today. If this isn’t your cup of tea, feel free to skip.

But the tragedy in Selangor—where a 16-year-old girl was fatally stabbed by a 14-year-old schoolmate—reminds us of a bigger storm brewing:

a mental epidemic.

🧵

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

What’s needed:
- Early threat assessment in schools
- Anonymous reporting channels
- Accessible counselling
- Trauma-informed response for peers & teachers
- Parents tuned into digital realities

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

Malaysia CPO Export Duty for Nov'2025:
Ref Price = RM 4262.23
Duty Rate = 10.0%
Duty = RM 426.22 /mt (USD100.81 @ 4.2280)

Malaysia CPO Export Duty for Oct'2025:
Ref Price = RM 4268.68
Duty Rate = 10.0%
Duty = RM 426.87 /mt (USD101.47 @ 4.2070)

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

https://t.co/pxUOQJPP0E

The last shortage was in August 2025. Here we are again in October 2025 (a week old news fyi). Indonesia's policies for energy just don't seem to be working as expected.

Credits to @cjng74 for highlighting this!

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

@Benzinh0 @BrianTycangco To be clear -
Their U.S. subsidiaries (Maersk Line Ltd, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd USA) are affected.

I group them there because they are "US-Linked". It is different from they are "US-Made".

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

@Goodvib75002247 Sure they are, kudos to India 💪

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

China’s new port charges (on U.S.-linked ships):
🔴 Affected majors (Top 3): Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd → ~1,699 ships
🟢 Beneficiaries (Top 3): MSC, COSCO, Evergreen → ~1,595 ships

China = the largest palm oil importer 🌍
Choose carriers carefully to avoid higher costs.

[CN Wire @Sino_Market]

🇨🇳🇺🇸CHINA'S MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT: STARTING OCTOBER 14, 2025, SPECIAL PORT CHARGES WILL BE IMPOSED ON VESSELS OWNED BY U.S. COMPANIES, ORGANIZATIONS, OR INDIVIDUALS.
SPECIAL PORT CHARGES TO BE LEVIED ON VESSELS OPERATED BY U.S. ENTITIES, VESSELS OWNED OR OPERATED BY ENTITIES WITH 25%+ U.S. EQUITY OR CONTROL, VESSELS FLYING THE U.S. FLAG, AND VESSELS BUILT IN THE U.S.
https://t.co/XBFHu5uubD

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

@cjng74 Rephrase - Largest importer of downstream products

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

@cjng74

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

When palm oil trades at a premium vs soy oil, importers (some) will make the switch.

On the other hand, when palm oil trades well above gas oil for a long period of time, policymakers decide to increase biodiesel mandate.

???

[Pasgethen #4560 @ArgawalYJCB]

@cjng74 🤡