Ariah

@Ariah785

Joined May 2021

1.7K Following

62 Followers

56 Posts

Ariah785 retweeted

@bitbitcrypto

3 days ago

once Saylor gets stress tested, I think btc and hype become the only crypto survivors. everything else is just fugazi with a ticker. a shame, cause eth had all the characteristics and a huge advantage, but the foundation did not deliver -instead dumped on investors relentlessly.

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14K

Ariah785 retweeted

Benjamin Cowen

@benjamincowen

4 days ago

Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

183

110K

Ariah785 retweeted

𝙃𝘼𝙕𝙀𝙉𝙇𝙀𝙀

@hazenlee

6 days ago

随着时间流逝，MSTR卖币等一系列利空，BTC目前也开始测试了周线MA200的支撑如图1。按照18年和19年的两次周期底部，周线的MA200均有较好的支撑，但是22年随着BTC的价格更高市值更大，导致周线MA200的支撑性并没有之前的周期强。如果单从周线MA200做一个买入策略或者定投区间，会有较长时间的水下和浮亏期。那么我们该如何看待现在此时此刻对于MA200的理解呢？这时候我给大家分享一个比普通均线更好用的指标，VWAP--成��量加权平均价格。VWAP的优势比均线更好的就是利用了微积分的原理，将成交量的权重和价格结合，不是单纯的价格平均，还加入了成交量的权重。于是我们采用真实的coinbase现货图表，从coinbase的BTC上市以来的VWAP如图。可以看到从19年开始，用VWAP寻找的BTC阶段性周期底部的成本会开始优秀于普通均线如图2。原因就是刚才提到的，价格在高位缩量导致的均线异常抬高，所以目前我们几乎可以确定周线MA200只是一个阶段性支撑，并不是一个周期的局部低点。所以，我的最新策略⬇️ 在BTC触及coinbase的vwap价格，目前约为28k的位置开始定投，价格如极限插针19.5k附近左侧现货满仓，（参考312的极限插针价格为18年盘整区间POC如图）。如果没有插针且没有满仓，剩余仓位等待右侧��认突破vwap和周线MA200之后再分批加满。另外题外话，单纯从K线历史归纳和刻舟求剑的角度上来看，目前的行情和22年走的很像。如图4 接下来两周的行情至关重要，如果依然像22年流畅跌破前低，那就很不好了。最后再次祝大家好运，李哥陪大家一起穿越牛熊~

hazenlee's tweet photo. 随着时间流逝，MSTR卖币等一系列利空，BTC目前也开始测试了周线MA200的支撑如图1。按照18年和19年的两次周期底部，周线的MA200均有较好的支撑，但是22年随着BTC的价格更高市值更大，导致周线MA200的支撑性并没有之前的周期强。如果单从周线MA200做一个买入策略或者定投区间，会有较长时间的水下和浮亏期。那么我们该如何看待现在此时此刻对于MA200的理解呢？

这时候我给大家分享一个比普通均线更好用的指标，VWAP--成��量加权平均价格。VWAP的优势比均线更好的就是利用了微积分的原理，将成交量的权重和价格结合，不是单纯的价格平均，还加入了成交量的权重。
于是我们采用真实的coinbase现货图表，从coinbase的BTC上市以来的VWAP如图。可以看到从19年开始，用VWAP寻找的BTC阶段性周期底部的成本会开始优秀于普通均线如图2。原因就是刚才提到的，价格在高位缩量导致的均线异常抬高，所以目前我们几乎可以确定周线MA200只是一个阶段性支撑，并不是一个周期的局部低点。

所以，我的最新策略⬇️
在BTC触及coinbase的vwap价格，目前约为28k的位置开始定投，价格如极限插针19.5k附近左侧现货满仓，（参考312的极限插针价格为18年盘整区间POC如图）。如果没有插针且没有满仓，剩余仓位等待右侧��认突破vwap和周线MA200之后再分批加满。

另外题外话，单纯从K线历史归纳和刻舟求剑的角度上来看，目前的行情和22年走的很像。如图4 接下来两周的行情至关重要，如果依然像22年流畅跌破前低，那就很不好了。最后再次祝大家好运，李哥陪大家一起穿越牛熊~

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Ariah785 retweeted

Testlabor

@testerlabor

8 days ago

Grok Build just created a game called Grok Racer for me. The great thing is that I told Grok to use Grok Imagine for the images in the game and it did! That’s fantastic and proves that Grok Imagine can also be used for active game coding. It works well and looks so cool.

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Who to follow

Building @KilroyDAO, because DeFI & AI deserve better | Founder: @mi_algos: Smarter crypto trading. I post politics that extremists hate.

Ariah785 retweeted

KBeast.eth @Xbt886

12 days ago

对现货市场的观察角度 1-根据市场深度设定分层的观察1% 1-2.5% 2.5%-5% 5-10% 10-25%，观察不同深度范围内的供应与需求情况 2-关键水平 1%范围内大额limit ask 被动买入，同时其他深度范围显示供需比例严重失衡 3-根据复盘标记 1%深度内ask 大于140M-180M的时候，市场处于高风险回调状态

Xbt886's tweet photo. 对现货市场的观察角度
1-根据市场深度设定分层的观察1% 1-2.5% 2.5%-5% 5-10% 10-25%，观察不同深度范围内的供应与需求情况
2-关键水平 1%范围内大额limit ask 被动买入，同时其他深度范围显示供需比例严重失衡
3-根据复盘标记 1%深度内ask 大于140M-180M的时候，市场处于高风险回调状态 https://t.co/CySqYWrJx2

Ariah785 retweeted

Astronomer

@astronomer_zero

14 days ago

$btc longs - and a full step-by-step guide An educational-execution based hybrid post. Low timeframe execution of our long idea: this is a good spot to perform your first trim. Yesterday, at the time of the post, where price was at $73093, we have again received "the guaranteed reaction" from that zone, I have been talking about each and every time in recent past. One that is clear to spot if you know what to look for. Before I go further, I am very pleased with the comments of last post overall. Many commenting how they took a first attempt at the 72.7k-73k response zone, the exact time I posted this long plan. You immediately took my plan seriously. And whether that is your aggressive mindset, simply because you blindly trust me and my plans since they have been accurate and usually are accurate in general, and my zones very often show a response, just like this, or you instantly knew what to look for. All I say is: well done. Taking the long is also what I did, with some (I believed to be) too obvious hints. I quote myself from last tweet: "And, in reality, this plan is clearly detailed enough to simply long here already in theory: enter here, stoploss below... ...so let's use it as a baseline framework and take the trade that way." There were also some hesitators. "I am not sure about trying this today". "I would rather look for strength". "I think we can go deeper first". "I will wait for a better entry". To you: also well done. Because you firstly are able to believe in a plan (you likely have some good data to back you), and you have a mindset of selectivity. Which is prone to learning methodically what to look for, ready to be autonomous, you just don't know exactly what it is. The only danger is: you are now prone to FOMO after my anticipated classic first "guaranteed" reaction played out locally. So you may feel like you missed the best entry already, have to sweat a few hours. With price never going back to the low. Is that possible? Not necessarily. But is this a missed shot? Let's assume it is, then I would say: missing trades is okay. But missing trades when a setup is clearly prone is less ideal (missing a 2RR trade when your setup has formed is the same as taking two losses, because your setup forming gets you prone to enter). And then finally, there were the few funny "bears". Saying: "we're going to drop from here, your plan is bad, we are going to 67k tonight" etc etc etc. Also all power to you. You believe what you want. You don't follow or believe in my core edge and framework and I am not telling you to. You may have your own reasons why you think the market goes somewhere and it could be better. But you are also the beginners, who simply don't know how to form a plan. We all start somewhere and awareness is key. So the flow chart goes: 1/ Believers in my plan (strongly): taken the entry 2/ Believers in my plan: but hesitating/waiting it out 3/ Non-believers in my plan. (the bears, the beginners) These three bullet points are the foundational decisions every single trader makes, every single time he sees, or creates a plan. To get to 1/ or 2/, it already takes some reasonably strong foundations. 3/ could be anything: either just watching, you are very skilled and have very good reasons to believe your own plan. Or, you hop from one plan to plan from one idea to the next, not even sure what to believe, because you don't know what drives markets. Further steps For each group: what are the next steps? 1/ are the ones who have been rewarded. They took the trade with authority and are now up 700$. The initial sweet "guaranteed" reaction. What do you do next? There are options. First thing you can do, is just hold. Hold and risk going back underwater. Psychologically? Fine now, but as soon as price goes back to BE, you will start to sweat. Going underwater? Even more sweat. Going deeper underwater? (Yet my plan is still valid): you may capitulate. Plan still works out in the end: very deep regret because you lost a trade which should have been a win. Sound familiar? Better alternative: trim your trade at the first next liquidity area. Well Astro, where is it? I am telling you now, it's right here, right now at the time of this post. But to repeat it yourself, that is where edge comes in. Because you have to know. It's not excessively hard to determine though. If you don't know, it also makes sense to just guess the trim (at 700-800 dollars, or if you have anxiety of price: just wait until the next H6 close after a "good" move), and then adapt the SL so that your portion of profits, after SL hitting, no longer results in a loss. And you have a (stress) free trade. And use: Trim % = 1/(1+RR). For me it's up 1.2 RR right now so Trim % = 45% to fully eliminate risk. If the trade gets stopped out later, then you get a free entry lower, look for a reaction and repeat the process. If it runs to target, you get a big payout, because you just refined an entry with a tight SL (This SL here is just 1% tight), potentially catching a massive swing trade move, all for free and just one day of, relatively easy work if you know how to do it. Where to put SL? I'm trying to keep the post short, maybe for another post. Choosing the low is okay. Choosing right under key liquidity you may find is better ("allowing for a sweep") This is a classic example of how you: miss less trades, feel far less stress, and score huge runners for big pay outs, rapidly scaling your account, with the cost: just a bit of finesse. 2/ You are still hesitating. A harder case... and it all depends on what your initial thoughts are. But since you have missed the right action (enter around my time of posting), you are subjected to wrong actions (fomo higher, which is bad, or revenge short "towards a better entry") etc, also bad and not according to plan. You are also possibly psychologically frozen out of actions. If price goes deeper, you continue to hesitate. Recipe for disaster. Because markets love performing fakeouts or fake moves and if you don't understand those, you may get sucked in each time since you are not positioned. Compare that to 1/ who is just relaxing, monitoring, waiting for price to move. This is how liquidity is generated. But you are very close to being successful because all you need is just that timing to enter. Not so hard of a step. 3/ You don't believe my plan. In the (let's humbly say) rare cases my plan fails: you will feel like a genius. "I knew it". "Astro is wrong". "I was right". "Let me write that in the comments". I will applaud you. And probably say something like: "I was wrong, I didn't lose money, but yes I was wrong, and you were right" and I would ask you: "But did you execute?". And you would hesitate. Or in the business as usual case where my plan works, price goes up here to swing targets, where the overall plan clearly played out. You may feel like you missed price, or "admit you were wrong", maybe even performed a few executions in between. "Shoot, maybe he was right let me long". No matter which one of these is yours, it's likely one of them, and for each, exists a solution (if you want to learn). You are 1/ means you probably don't need much refinement if you know exactly where the liquidity is to TP, if you can anticipate these guaranteed reactions, and already have a strong understanding If you are 2/ you already know what plans to believe in, or can put conviction in a plan even if wrong. You just don't know how to execute on it in a refined, safe and stress free way. Costing you lots of capital, more than it should perhaps. Certainly the most frustrating phase because you are so close to success yet the most prone to overtrading, or some emotional leakage. (Classic valley of despair). If you are 3/ you either don't care about it, or you don't know how to form a plan in the first place and are a beginner. Your options are funnily enough quite broad. You could simply learn how to enter first, and just in good faith, let a runner go hoping price magically goes in the direction. If you get really good at just spotting reactions, you could actually become consistently profitable. Are you could learn to form plans and enter broadly first, going through the psychological stress. The second route is the most logical, the first route may be the most stress free route funnily enough. Most perform a hybrid and learn both someway along the way. The key is awareness to what you are missing. My next steps? Since I longed at 77093 (and didn't try to make it obvious), I know there is some liquidity at 73.7k, so I go ahead and make it risk free right here, adapt the SL ("Below the low", mine is slightly different, just not trying to show how bybit can make an easy 1 mil+ on me), potentially setting me up for a massive run to our swing trade targets. I hope this has been insightful. A deep dive into how I trade every single step of the way, and how institutions do it as well (with some variations, I am just "retail" after all). Sound like an extensive process. But aside from the fact that I was able to write it in one post, it's the same process, every single time, for every single trade. Do it once and do it a few times, become confident, and you can do it again and again and again, scaling capital fast. Suddenly, your life changes, drastically.

astronomer_zero's tweet photo. $btc longs - and a full step-by-step guide

An educational-execution based hybrid post.

Low timeframe execution of our long idea: this is a good spot to perform your first trim.

Yesterday, at the time of the post, where price was at $73093, we have again received "the guaranteed reaction" from that zone, I have been talking about each and every time in recent past.

One that is clear to spot if you know what to look for.

Before I go further, I am very pleased with the comments of last post overall. Many commenting how they took a first attempt at the 72.7k-73k response zone, the exact time I posted this long plan. You immediately took my plan seriously. And whether that is your aggressive mindset, simply because you blindly trust me and my plans since they have been accurate and usually are accurate in general, and my zones very often show a response, just like this, or you instantly knew what to look for. All I say is: well done. Taking the long is also what I did, with some (I believed to be) too obvious hints. I quote myself from last tweet:

"And, in reality, this plan is clearly detailed enough to simply long here already in theory: enter here, stoploss below... ...so let's use it as a baseline framework and take the trade that way."

There were also some hesitators. "I am not sure about trying this today". "I would rather look for strength". "I think we can go deeper first". "I will wait for a better entry". To you: also well done. Because you firstly are able to believe in a plan (you likely have some good data to back you), and you have a mindset of selectivity. Which is prone to learning methodically what to look for, ready to be autonomous, you just don't know exactly what it is. The only danger is: you are now prone to FOMO after my anticipated classic first "guaranteed" reaction played out locally. So you may feel like you missed the best entry already, have to sweat a few hours. With price never going back to the low.

Is that possible? Not necessarily. But is this a missed shot?

Let's assume it is, then I would say: missing trades is okay. But missing trades when a setup is clearly prone is less ideal (missing a 2RR trade when your setup has formed is the same as taking two losses, because your setup forming gets you prone to enter).

And then finally, there were the few funny "bears". Saying: "we're going to drop from here, your plan is bad, we are going to 67k tonight" etc etc etc. Also all power to you. You believe what you want. You don't follow or believe in my core edge and framework and I am not telling you to. You may have your own reasons why you think the market goes somewhere and it could be better. But you are also the beginners, who simply don't know how to form a plan. We all start somewhere and awareness is key.

So the flow chart goes:

1/ Believers in my plan (strongly): taken the entry
2/ Believers in my plan: but hesitating/waiting it out
3/ Non-believers in my plan. (the bears, the beginners)

These three bullet points are the foundational decisions every single trader makes, every single time he sees, or creates a plan. To get to 1/ or 2/, it already takes some reasonably strong foundations. 3/ could be anything: either just watching, you are very skilled and have very good reasons to believe your own plan. Or, you hop from one plan to plan from one idea to the next, not even sure what to believe, because you don't know what drives markets.

Further steps

For each group: what are the next steps?

1/ are the ones who have been rewarded. They took the trade with authority and are now up 700$. The initial sweet "guaranteed" reaction.

What do you do next?

There are options. First thing you can do, is just hold. Hold and risk going back underwater. Psychologically? Fine now, but as soon as price goes back to BE, you will start to sweat. Going underwater? Even more sweat. Going deeper underwater? (Yet my plan is still valid): you may capitulate. Plan still works out in the end: very deep regret because you lost a trade which should have been a win. Sound familiar?

Better alternative: trim your trade at the first next liquidity area. Well Astro, where is it? I am telling you now, it's right here, right now at the time of this post. But to repeat it yourself, that is where edge comes in. Because you have to know. It's not excessively hard to determine though.

If you don't know, it also makes sense to just guess the trim (at 700-800 dollars, or if you have anxiety of price: just wait until the next H6 close after a "good" move), and then adapt the SL so that your portion of profits, after SL hitting, no longer results in a loss. And you have a (stress) free trade.

And use: Trim % = 1/(1+RR). For me it's up 1.2 RR right now so Trim % = 45% to fully eliminate risk.

If the trade gets stopped out later, then you get a free entry lower, look for a reaction and repeat the process.

If it runs to target, you get a big payout, because you just refined an entry with a tight SL (This SL here is just 1% tight), potentially catching a massive swing trade move, all for free and just one day of, relatively easy work if you know how to do it.

Where to put SL? I'm trying to keep the post short, maybe for another post. Choosing the low is okay. Choosing right under key liquidity you may find is better ("allowing for a sweep")

This is a classic example of how you: miss less trades, feel far less stress, and score huge runners for big pay outs, rapidly scaling your account, with the cost: just a bit of finesse.

2/ You are still hesitating.

A harder case... and it all depends on what your initial thoughts are. But since you have missed the right action (enter around my time of posting), you are subjected to wrong actions (fomo higher, which is bad, or revenge short "towards a better entry") etc, also bad and not according to plan.

You are also possibly psychologically frozen out of actions. If price goes deeper, you continue to hesitate. Recipe for disaster. Because markets love performing fakeouts or fake moves and if you don't understand those, you may get sucked in each time since you are not positioned. Compare that to 1/ who is just relaxing, monitoring, waiting for price to move. This is how liquidity is generated.

But you are very close to being successful because all you need is just that timing to enter. Not so hard of a step.

3/ You don't believe my plan. In the (let's humbly say) rare cases my plan fails: you will feel like a genius. "I knew it". "Astro is wrong". "I was right". "Let me write that in the comments". I will applaud you. And probably say something like: "I was wrong, I didn't lose money, but yes I was wrong, and you were right" and I would ask you: "But did you execute?". And you would hesitate.

Or in the business as usual case where my plan works, price goes up here to swing targets, where the overall plan clearly played out. You may feel like you missed price, or "admit you were wrong", maybe even performed a few executions in between. "Shoot, maybe he was right let me long".

No matter which one of these is yours, it's likely one of them, and for each, exists a solution (if you want to learn).

You are 1/ means you probably don't need much refinement if you know exactly where the liquidity is to TP, if you can anticipate these guaranteed reactions, and already have a strong understanding

If you are 2/ you already know what plans to believe in, or can put conviction in a plan even if wrong. You just don't know how to execute on it in a refined, safe and stress free way. Costing you lots of capital, more than it should perhaps. Certainly the most frustrating phase because you are so close to success yet the most prone to overtrading, or some emotional leakage. (Classic valley of despair).

If you are 3/ you either don't care about it, or you don't know how to form a plan in the first place and are a beginner. Your options are funnily enough quite broad.

You could simply learn how to enter first, and just in good faith, let a runner go hoping price magically goes in the direction. If you get really good at just spotting reactions, you could actually become consistently profitable.

Are you could learn to form plans and enter broadly first, going through the psychological stress.

The second route is the most logical, the first route may be the most stress free route funnily enough.

Most perform a hybrid and learn both someway along the way. The key is awareness to what you are missing.

My next steps?

Since I longed at 77093 (and didn't try to make it obvious), I know there is some liquidity at 73.7k, so I go ahead and make it risk free right here, adapt the SL ("Below the low", mine is slightly different, just not trying to show how bybit can make an easy 1 mil+ on me), potentially setting me up for a massive run to our swing trade targets.

I hope this has been insightful. A deep dive into how I trade every single step of the way, and how institutions do it as well (with some variations, I am just "retail" after all).

Sound like an extensive process. But aside from the fact that I was able to write it in one post, it's the same process, every single time, for every single trade. Do it once and do it a few times, become confident, and you can do it again and again and again, scaling capital fast.

Suddenly, your life changes, drastically.

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Ariah785 retweeted

Isabelle Lee @isabelletanlee

15 days ago

In his first Bloomberg Crypto appearance, @giancarloMKTS tells @timsteno and me why he thinks prediction markets should not be treated the same way as sportsbooks or casinos. We broke the exclusive of his Jefferies senior advisor appointment last week

17K

Ariah @Ariah785

8 months ago

kol舔完全可以理解但是散户韭菜们也跟着摇旗洗你们是在跟bn谈恋爱吗？

Ariah @Ariah785

8 months ago

CME无事发生而在最关键的几分�� 宇宙第一大所再次神奇地发生“卡顿” 用你们价值为0的山寨币换取了数十亿甚至百亿的价值币然后从中拿出不到3亿赔付给套利大户散户韭菜？根都割没了别来沾边

Ariah @Ariah785

10 months ago

Pure manipulation #eth

Ariah785 retweeted

OKX Wallet

@wallet

about 1 year ago

DOOD is launching soon⌛ We've partnered with @doodles to give our users exclusive early access to 100,000,000 $DOOD 🤝 Keep reading for the alpha👇

wallet's tweet photo. DOOD is launching soon⌛

We've partnered with @doodles to give our users exclusive early access to 100,000,000 $DOOD 🤝

Keep reading for the alpha👇 https://t.co/SCuDYYzajT

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Ariah785 retweeted

doodles @doodles

about 1 year ago

$DOOD will be launching on Solana 🔜 we’ve optimized for a smooth experience and will be airdropping $DOOD to eligible communities, whether you’re a current Doodles NFT holder or a New Blood community member. here's how to get your airdrop ↓

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Ariah @Ariah785

about 1 year ago

COLD WAR II ?

Ariah @Ariah785

about 1 year ago

真牛逼原来POTUS是真的可以为所欲为真·一己之力

Ariah @Ariah785

over 1 year ago

在特靠谱和特离谱之间反复横跳 #BTC #ETH #SOL #XRP

Ariah @Ariah785

over 1 year ago

恐惧贪婪指数来到了10（极度恐惧）自从2018年推出以来，历史上10以下只发生过5次，分别是： 2018年熊市底部 312 519 LUNA暴雷 FTX破产今天是第6次发生了什么？

Ariah @Ariah785

over 1 year ago

Gm legends! I’m joining the 'NFT Legends Season' by @Mint_Blockchain and claim my share of 1% $MINT supply. Just grabbed 4 NFT Legend Boxes! 🍀✨ Check your eligibility and claim yours here: https://t.co/EAdMBZIyTk