How big is the cattle loan for money box limited?
Is there any impact on rural slow down post recent MFis warnings how are the disbursement going post recent fund raising?
They aim for 3x growth in 2 years post recent fund raising & grew by 20x in last 4 years
Collection ratio has been impeccable hits a low of 94.5 even in worst of Covid
They are live now in our conference
@Shashi_ACML@ArihantHarshit@ArihantPlus
Industry leaders from over 150+ companies are meeting our expert panelists! *And you’re invited!*
Don’t miss out on your opportunity to *attend our virtual Bharat Connect Conference – Rising Stars September 2024*
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*Please note*: Some companies are in the process of being finalized and are tentative.
*Arihant Capital Markets Ltd*
@ArihantMiraj@ArihantHarshit@jtsingh194@ArihantPlus
*SG Mart - Sales Note*
CMP: INR 409 | Market Cap: INR 45.6 Bn | Promoter: 40.97% | *Outlook: Positive*
[Arihant Capital]
*Link to the report* : https://t.co/UK4OQZ7Xhw
*Outlook:* With just under 1 year of operations, company has positioned itself in the leading position in steel product marketplace. Going ahead, the company has ambitions of reaching topline of INR 180 Bn by FY27 and INR 500 Bn by FY30. The EBITDA margins for B2C business will be ~4-5% but the blended EBITDA margins will be in the range of 2-3%. The high scalability, ample cash balance, strong parentage and opportunity in non-steel segment will be the key factors which will drive growth for the company going forward. We believe the company has potential to deliver EBITDA of INR 5.5 Bn by FY27E. *We are positive on the company and see a multifold opportunity. We are working on detail numbers.*
You would be missed @imVkohli & @ImRo45 . Everyone know they made us Champion. My eyes are wet while writing this message. Selfless Cricket and Team players. Koi " RO - KO" na.
Thank you again.
*Capital SFB Ltd – Stock Idea*
*CMP INR 337 | Market Cap INR 15.18 bn*
*OUTLOOK*
*Capital Small Finance Bank is Retail focused liability franchise with a high share of CASA, indicating strong deposit base stability. It has a Secured and diversified advances portfolio, which helps mitigating credit risk. Asset quality is expected to improve going forward, backed by strong recoveries in the future. Additionally, with adequate growth capital, CSFB is well-positioned to leverage the expanding middle-income segment. Currently trading at a Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) of 1.26x, we maintain a long-term positive outlook on the stock*.
*Guidance*
•Management aims to improve its NIM to 4.5% over the next three years, up from the current 3.9%.
•Currently operating with 177 branches across 5 states and 1 Union Territory, the Bank plans to enhance its footprint by adding 25 branches in FY25 and 35 branches in FY26. This expansion will include entering new states as the business grows.
•Opex ratio for the FY24 stands at approximately 3%. Management expects it remain at similar levels on the back of increasing scale of business and growing matured branches.
•The GNPA ratio stood at 2.8% for FY24. Management is optimistic about future recoveries, which are expected to enhance asset quality.
•Bank is targeting to achieve a loan portfolio growth ranging from 22% - 24% in FY25. The Bank has provided a ROA guidance of 1.4% for FY25, an improvement from the current 1.3%. Additionally, the ROE is expected to increase to 16% in FY25, up from 14.6% in FY24.
•Management is focused on growing the middle - income group (MIG) segment.
*Highlights*
•Capital Small Finance Bank Ltd. commenced operations as India’s first small finance bank in 2016, offering a range of banking products on the asset and liability side, in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Union Territory of Chandigarh.
•Prior to becoming a Small Finance Bank, it started operations as a local area bank, with 47 branches, in Jalandhar, Kapurthala and Hoshiarpur and expanded its operations into Ludhiana and Amritsar, thereby extending its outreach to a total of 5 districts.
•The core strategy of the Bank is to build a retail focused business model with special emphasis on rural and semi urban geographies and Middle - Income Group segment.
•Its asset products primarily include 37% agriculture loans, 19% MSME and trading loans (working capital, machinery loans etc.) and 26% mortgages (housing loans and loans against property).
•They are a secured lender with 99.9% secured book, with an average ticket size of INR 14.2 Lakhs. The security is valued at collateral value rather than market value.
•The management of the company is optimistic about future recoveries, which will help them to improve their asset quality. The GNPA ratio stood at 2.8% for FY24.
•Capital SFB is predominantly operating in Punjab and Haryana, where market opportunity is believed to be immense. They currently have a market share of only 1.15% in Punjab with an incremental share of 1%.
•Their USP lies in providing RM and personnel services specifically in Punjab and Haryana, markets where competitors do not offer these services. This strategic differentiation is expected to enhance their market share in these regions.
•Company has a high rollover ratio of 91.15%, depicting a stable deposit base.
•More than 65% of the branches are matured and as the scale of business increases, more branches will mature. This will help them to maintain their Opex ratio at 3% levels.
•Quarter 1 is generally weak for banks but management projects a healthy Q1FY25, due to the availability of growth capital.
*Arihant Capital Markets Ltd*
@ArihantHarshit
*Spandana Sphoorty Financial Ltd – Q4FY24 concall KTAs*
*CMP INR 887 | Market Cap INR 63.2 bn*
*OUTLOOK*
*Company has displayed healthy performance across all parameters. Their profitability increased by 1% QoQ and 22% YoY. Further, company’s NIMs improved, cost of borrowing declined and GNPA/ NNPA declined, signaling a positive outlook on the company*.
*Guidance*
•Targeting a 20-25% AUM growth in FY25.
•Aims to further bring down the cost-to-income ratio and opex-to-AUM ratio.
•Focus on managing the transition to the weekly model and improving collection efficiency.
*Highlights*
•Company displayed healthy performance across various parameters.
•Q4FY24 disbursements grew by 30% YoY and 56% QoQ at INR 39.70 bn, aided by healthy loan book growth and customer acquisition.
•Weekly model disbursements accounted for 21% of total disbursements in Q4FY24.
•They added 1.4 million new customers during FY24, achieving a 59% YoY growth. 50% of new customer acquisitions in Q4 came from 6 focus states.
•AUM grew 41% YoY to INR 119.73 bn, driven by customer acquisition-led growth.
•Company maintained focus on smaller ticket sizes and shorter loan tenures.
•PAT for FY24 reached INR.5.01 bn, v/s INR 0.12 bn in FY23.
•NII rose by 23% QoQ/ 41% YoY at INR 3.78 bn for Q4FY24, reflecting successful loan portfolio expansion and healthy NIMs.
•The asset quality was under pressure in Q3FY24, due to the transition from monthly to weekly collection. Asset quality improved during the Q4FY24. GNPA decreased to 1.50% and NNPA improved to 0.30%.
@ArihantHarshit
*Arihant Capital Markets Ltd*
*Anand Rathi Wealth – Q4FY24 Concall KTAs*
*CMP INR 4,198 | Market Cap INR 175.7 bn*
*OUTLOOK*
*ARWL's quarterly margins were affected, resulting in muted sequential growth in Q4FY24. Despite this, the company managed to meet its FY24 guidance successfully. The YoY growth of the company remains strong. Moreover, ARWL has announced a buyback of up to 3,70,000 Equity Shares at INR 4,450 per equity share, which reflects management's confidence in the company's prospects. Overall, we maintain an optimistic outlook on the company's long-term performance.*
*Guidance for FY25*
• Company has given a revenue guidance of INR 9.1 bn for the whole FY25.
• PAT guidance of INR 2.8 bn.
• AUM guidance of INR 720 bn against AUM of INR 593.51 bn for the FY24 (+21.31% YoY).
*Industry Highlights*
• The AUM to GDP ratio of India came at 5% which is quite low as compared to global AUM to GDP ratio of 27%. The global average is 4x of India. This implies that India has a huge scope of penetration towards professionally managed financial assets like mutual funds.
• The HNI population in India has been growing at a 21% CAGR since 2017 and is expected to grow at 15.7% CAGR till 2027. Strong macro-economic trends and a growing HNI families expected to drive growth in the Indian wealth solutions space.
• Indian households allocated 63% of their financial assets in low but guaranteed returns assets, such as deposits, small savings and pension and provident funds and approximately 9% of the financial asset is held in cash with no return.
• There is massive potential to increase the share of equity in client portfolios. Equity investment needs guidance, thereby, creating huge opportunity for wealth outfits.
*Private Wealth Business*
• PAT margin declined marginally by 22bps QoQ and 2 bps YoY to 28.8%.
• AUM increased to INR 593.51 bn (+11% QoQ, +52% YoY).
• In FY24, industry has seen net inflows of INR -151.27 bn (excluding SIP inflows), but ARWL has seen inflows of INR 42.06 bn.
• Active clients increased to 9911 in Q4FY24 v/s 9641 in Q3FY24 (+3% QoQ, +19% YoY).
• Company added 39 new RMs over the last 12 months, taking to 332 RMs. It is expected to be reach around 500 RM in next 3-4 years.
*Digital Wealth Business*
• AUM increased by 47% YoY and 4% QoQ to INR 15.45 bn.
• Number of clients grew by 14% YoY and 5% QoQ to 4,862.
*OFA business (Omni Financial Advisors)*
• Assets under Administration (AuA) of MFDs on this platform is INR 1,329.08 bn (PY INR 921.74 bn).
*Other Highlights*
• Company declared a dividend of INR 9/share. Total Dividend for FY24 stood at INR 14/share (including Interim Dividend of INR 5/share).
• The BOD proposed a buyback of up to 3,70,000 Equity Shares at INR 4,450 per equity share for an aggregate amount not exceeding INR 1.65 bn, representing 0.88% of the total paid up equity share capital.
*Arihant Capital Markets Ltd*
@ArihantHarshit
People would laugh but we remain positive
at INR 600 odd levels we recom motilal initially for INR 1432 & people talked full service business as dying business .
Stock is now 3.5x …
@ArihantHarshit@ArihantPlus
*Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | Rating: Buy*
*CMP INR 728.1 Market Cap INR 107.66 bn*
*Target: INR 1,432*
*Link to report*: https://t.co/P5K4AQ1Wuk
*Investment Rationale*
We believe the long-term prospects of the bank remain attractive on the back of:
1) Traditional full service brokerage business performed well despite challenges from modern discount broking business.
2) The IB business has underperformed in FY23 but, is expected to perform better going forward due to strong pipeline in FY24.
3) The home finance business has seen a loss during 2018. The company has hired experienced personnel in their senior management team owing to which, its performance in FY23 has improved and will continue to improve in FY24.
4) The Asset & Wealth business of MOFSL has performed well as compared to its peers.
5) There was a turnaround across all segments. All segments of the MOFSL group has performed well. Market share for broking business was up 96 bps YoY to 3.4%. The total asset and wealth management business AUM crossed INR 1 tn in FY23. PAT for home finance business grew 44% YoY in FY23.
*OUTLOOK*:
*We have a positive outlook on the company. With the changes in senior management, the company is expected to perform well in the* *future. Broking business is expected to grow by 20- 25% in FY24. The IB business is expected to grow in FY24 due to strong pipeline for FY24*. *Further, in the housing finance side, company is expecting a loan book growth of 10% till FY25, with NIM at 7%*.*We have a target price of INR 1,432*.
@
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140 plus companies ; 10k plus registrations...
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We wanted to express our sincere gratitude for your time at *Bharat Connect Rising stars Conference by Arihant Capital.* Your presence helped make it a successful event. We wanted to be part of your journey of Value creation.
"In addition to the conference note , we would be sharing follow-up document summarizing the key takeaways & our research view.Please don't hesitate to reach out if you have any questions, please feel to connect with Team Arihant.
Some of our friends who missed out due to their busy schedule or pre occupied timing, we would be happy to connect you in near future as per your convenience.
We would be sharing presentations & putting recording soon on youtube channel of Arihant soon.
Thank you Management's, IR firms also for making this big.
I would request you all for your feedback to boost young team of Arihant who was working continously since last 6 weeks.
Team Arihant.
Abhishek Jain
@ArihantHarshit@ArihantMiraj@ArihantPlus@jtsingh194
#bharatconnect
*We are thankful to Cineline India Ltd. for giving us the opportunity to host the management at our Bharat Connect Conference:*
What caught our eyes!
•The company started with multiplexes in the Western India while competitors like PVR were present in Northern India.
•The company exited the Cinema business in 2012 with 130+ screens and returned back to the business in March 2022 seeing the growth opportunities.
•They anticipate to achieve INR 2,000mn revenue in FY24 with combined EBITDA of more than INR 500mn.
•There has been in the F&B segment while occupancy has not seen growth. Current occupancy is 22% below pre covid levels.
•The company does not see OTT as a bigger threat as they feel OTT is in competition with social media like Youtube, Tiktok.
•The management is positive that OTT will not affect the movie industry to a large extent as the cinemas provide a viewing experience has its own audience. Interest is also coming back from big studios in making content for cinemas.
•Currently the company has total of 160 tied up screens, 68 of them are operational. Out of the operational, 20 are owned while the balance are on lease (majority on revenue share basis while some are on Fixed rent basis).
•The target is to reach 100 operational screens in FY25 and have around 300 tied up screens with more than 125 of them operational by FY26.
•Current ATP is at INR 220 while F&B revenue is INR 85/person and is expected to see significant growth.
•The company follows a bottom up approach in property selection. They also look for refurbishment opportunities of screens in small cities as they require less capex. They also get some new screens partly financed by developers.
•The capex for screen additions has already begun in August but due to delay the major screen additions have been pushed to FY25.
•Payback period for a screen is about 5 years and capex per screen is about INR 25 to 30mn.
•EBITDA/screen is about INR 4-5mn with tickets business having 56% margins while F&B has 76% margins.
*Hotel business:*
•The company has plans to sell the hotel and divest from the Hotel business. They currently also own 8 other properties which they will look to liquidate and eventually use the incoming capital in the expansion of Cinema business.
•The rationale behind the divestment is the hotel business has saturated and the management does not see very high growth in the business going forward.
•The company expects to close the Hotel deal within the next two quarters. The deal amount was not disclosed but it is around INR 3000mn.
*Future outlook:*
•The management believes this is a good opportunity and time to expand their cinema business by increasing screens pan India.
•With no major releases planned in the next year, the company expects FY24-25 to be flat in terms of revenue and EBITDA but there are possibilities of 5-10% degrowth of the business next year.
•While FY25-26 is expected to be a blockbuster for the entertainment industry and the company anticipates robust growth. Occupancy is also expected to see exceptional growth from CY2025.
•The company mainly focuses on ROCE expansion.
•The focus remains on providing affordable pricing.
•The company targets to add 30-36 screens every year which will require about INR 600-900mn yearly capex.
*Arihant Capital Markets Ltd*
#bharatconnect @ArihantPlus
*Yesterday we hosted the management of BLS International Services Ltd at our Bharat Connect Conference and we have positive aspects on the following highlighted points*
*Outlook: The company plans to utilize its extensive touchpoint network to cross-sell services like insurance and e-commerce, aiming to reach 1.5 lakh touchpoints. This strategy diversifies revenue streams and enhances market presence. Coupled with organic growth through tender bidding and potential acquisitions, the company is well-positioned for robust expansion in the digital services sector.*
*Turkish Acquisition*
• The company has finalized a definitive agreement to acquire a Turkish visa company for approximately 500cr.
• This acquisition is expected to contribute positively to the company's EBITDA, with audited numbers revealing a top line of ~€20.5mn and a bottom line of ~€10mn for the CY22.
• Additionally, there may be further investment required if the Turkish company secures extensions for existing contracts, indicating potential growth opportunities beyond the initial acquisition.
*Key highlights*
• VFS is a major competitor in the visa business, while regional players also exist. In the digital business segment, there are numerous small players, with no dominant global player. VFS has experienced a decline in market share over recent years.
• The decision to list the subsidiary, BLSE Services, separately was driven by investor demand for a pure play in the digital services business and the need for growth capital.
• The visa business currently has a better ROCE, the digital services business has growth potential and may match the ROCE of the visa business in the future. Both businesses are asset-light.
• The BC and e-governance businesses are less susceptible to political changes as they operate on global tenders and receive payments directly from citizens rather than the government.
• Contracts for services typically span five years with options for extension, providing stability and opportunities for long-term partnerships.
• The company plans to utilize its cash balance primarily for acquisitions and expansion. Additionally, funds may be allocated to support the infrastructure and initial investments required for winning large contracts.
• The company's growth drivers include offering value-added services, pursuing organic growth through aggressive bidding for tenders, and considering acquisitions strategically to expand market share and enter new territories.
• Most major contracts have been renewed for the next 3-5 years, although renewal ultimately depends on competitive tender processes and convincing client governments of the company's value proposition.
*Arihant Capital Markets Ltd*
#bharatconnect @ArihantPlus
We were happy to host the management of Allied Digital Services Ltd. at our Bharat Connect Conference - Rising Star - 2024.
Why we like the company?
•Cloud enablement and Cyber security services to be gamechanger for the company going forward.
•80-85% of the revenue comes from IMS.
•The workplace management services were started during covid after the company saw the opportunity.
•Currently, AdiTaas works on version 5.0, soon 6.0 version is to be launched.
•The company has been working on Lucknow safe city project which is expected to go live soon.
•Service revenue share is expected to decrease with increasing share of Solutions revenue.
•Revenue from government projects is already increasing and is expected to have significant growth.
•ROCE will see further improvement.
•They currently cater to 51 clients with TCV of more than US$ 1mn.
•IMS business is the core service of the company; though it has tight margins but acts as entry point for customer acquisition and get customers onboarded for other services too.
•A smart city project typically takes about 9-10 months of implementation and the next 5-6 years of maintenance. Each project generally generates 12-15% margins.
•AdiTaas customer base includes a large car manufacturer in India, using the service for managing tickets and a large PE group in USA which has 5-6 retail brands.
•The company partners with large IOP players and exclusively provides IMS. They also collaborate with Tier 2 partners to cater to large customers. As the company does not have bandwidth to provide exclusive services to large players, they have to collaborate with other service providers to cater these customers.
•Other than this, they have also started targeting customers in USA with TCV of US$ 5 to 10mn to provide them direct services.
• Last four quarters were muted due to the US economy and there was a shift/delay in orders of 6 months to 1 year; lost many customers in the US as they preferred to go in house. They also had to resort to onboarding clients at lower margins. But post elections, the US business is also expected to get back on track and see growth.
•Companies like L&T are competitors in System integration services.
•There has been significant improvement in WC days and it has come down to 87-88 and it expected to be maintained at similar level.
•The revenue was increasing but there was no growth/degrowth in profitability mainly due to hardware business. Thus, the company has stopped the hardware business completely.
*Guidance:*
•ADSL targets to achieve INR 10,000mn revenue in the next 2 years.
•EBITDA margins are expected to reach mid teens in the next 4-6 quarters driven by software business and IMS/government projects.
•There are about 1000 small smart cities planned by the government with INR 300-500mn budget. The company will bid for these projects and is positive on getting business from this and further improve its market share.
•US business is expected to be slow due to elections but will pick up post elections.
•Target to bid for 2 new smart city project of INR 5000mn each.
•Revenue from India is expected to be INR 2700 to 3000mn in FY24.
•Plans to come up with 2nd round of ESOPs.
•They are actively looking for acquisition opportunities.
•Profitability to be higher in AdiTaas.
*Arihant Capital Markets Ltd*
#bharatconnect @ArihantPlus
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@abhishekcjain@jtsingh194
*Piramal Enterprise Ltd – Initiating Coverage*
*CMP 811 | Market Cap INR 187 bn | TP: INR 2632*
*Ratings: BUY*
*Link to report*: https://t.co/mOWjYuzH0O
*OUTLOOK*
Company’s focus on resolution of wholesale book 1.0 has increased, along with building a granular wholesale book 2.0. This will happen slowly and gradually and will help to further improve their asset quality. Further, with the increasing focus on retail lending, company is expected to show positive performance in coming quarters, with improvement in margins. In the near term, wholesale book 1.0 is expected to reduce via sale to ARC for upfront cash, sale to ARC on cash and SR, sale of assets or via organic reduction and refinance and the retail to wholesale mix is expected to be 70:30. In the long term, company targets to double its total AUM to INR 1.2 lakh crore by FY2028. We also expect the monetization of Shriram Life insurance in short term. If we look at a bigger picture, company has identified its shortcomings like low ROE, high cost of funds, bad wholesale 1.0 book among others and is working to eradicate them. *We have a BUY rating on the stock, with a target price of INR 2299, based on 1.5x of FY27E ABV and INR 2966 based on residual free cash flow approach. Giving 50-50 weightage to both approaches, we arrive at a target price of INR 2632, which gives an upside of 224% from current levels*.
*INVESTMENT RATIONALE*
1. *Crafting a highly Scalable retail empire*
Piramal Capital and Housing Finance (PCHFL) merged with Dewan housing finance limited (DHFL) on 30th September, 2021. This has helped them to increase the retail to wholesale book mix from a largely wholesale led book to 50:50. Their retail AUM has grown by 54% YoY and 11.48% QoQ to 430.28 bn during Q3FY24, improving the retail to wholesale AUM mix to 64:36. Their primary focus is on retail lending which will help them improve their yields.
2. *Streamlining wholesale book 1.0 with strategy*
The company has laid down a clear strategy to reduce their wholesale 1.0 book. The company has been actively reducing their wholesale 1.0 book from INR 416.55 bn in Q1FY23, to INR 186.93 bn in Q3FY24, through various means like, sale to ARC for cash & SR, organic reduction & refinancing, sale to ARC for upfront cash and sale of assets. This has helped them to improve their asset quality substantially.
3. *Wholesale revival: Cultivating a thriving wholesale 2.0 book*
Another area of focus for PEL has been on building granular wholesale 2.0 book, across real estate and corporate mid-market lending. Company believes there is an opportunity for real estate to grow in coming years. Company has built a Wholesale 2.0 AUM across Real Estate and Corporate Mid - Market Loans worth INR 55.62 bn as of Dec-2023.
4. *Revving up growth in the Insurance Business*
As a part of DHFL acquisition, the Company also acquired a 50% stake in Pramerica Life Insurance (PLI), which is a joint venture (JV) with Prudential International Insurance Holdings. In FY23, PLI was the fastest growing Life Insurance company with a growth rate of 129% on the basis of overall New Business Premium. Currently, PLI strategically focuses on acquiring customers with background from armed forces, along with Credit Life – NBFC and Credit life – MFI. New Lines of operations in which it is entering into are: Agency, BroCA Partnerships, Banca Partnerships, and Employee Benefits which will help them to improve their business performance and drive growth.
*Arihant Capital Markets Ltd*
@ArihantHarshit