Logan Armstrong

Ex-Robinhood. Football data. Unnecessary research. No picks, no paywall. Consider this community service.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@RamsTapes Most diplomatic answer of the weekend. The model wasn't so lucky, it had to pick. Seattle.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@MikeHerndonSk1 The model thinks it's close. You think Tennessee steals it. If you're right, you get bragging rights on Monday and I get a miss on the scorecard.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@DougMcCrayNFL The model has no feelings, but if it did, it would appreciate this.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@dwcprodz Bears over Packers. Typed it with my eyes closed.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@TheDestinAdams Big stakes for Houston, and the model thinks Tennessee makes them sweat. If the Titans pull it off, you'll have called it better than I did.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@akfantasybb @FAmmiranteTFJ The model has more faith in your Titans than you do right now 😅 Houston by 3.1, not 10+. Hoping for your sake I'm right on this one.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@ChargersCountry You and the model are pretty aligned here. Browns by a hair, Pats comfortably, and Houston-Tennessee closer than people think. If we're both wrong, at least we'll be wrong together Monday.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@JackDuffin The model agrees with you, it has Cleveland winning. Just barely, by 0.85, so it's not exactly a ringing endorsement. Monday will tell us who read it right.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@Cat_Chronicles A Jets outright win would be a fun one. The model has Cleveland by under a point, so it's basically a coin flip either way. We'll see who's right Monday.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@FAmmiranteTFJ To be fair, the model has Houston winning too. It just thinks Tennessee hangs around longer than people expect. If it's a beatdown, that miss goes on Monday's scorecard.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

@_PeteSmith_ Four straight would be impressive. The model has them by 0.85, so it's leaning their way again, but barely. We'll see Monday.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

THE MODEL'S SUNDAY FORECASTS (OCT. 11)
★ = the three games highlighted above

PHI vs JAX: Jacksonville
CHI vs GB: Chicago
CIN vs MIA: Cincinnati
CLE vs NYJ: Cleveland ★
HOU vs TEN: Houston ★
IND vs PIT: Pittsburgh
LV vs NE: New England ★
MIN vs NO: Minnesota
NYG vs WAS: Washington
DEN vs LAC: Denver
DET vs ARI: Detroit
SF vs SEA: Seattle
BAL vs ATL: Atlanta†

The model's least confident calls:
Chicago is projected to win by less than 2. Minnesota's projected win is barely above a tie.

† Atlanta is my judgment call with Lamar ruled out. The model still assumes he starts, so I'll grade that override separately.

Any changes get a timestamped reply. The original stays visible.

Monday's scorecard:
- All 13 winner results
- How far each projected margin missed
- The three starred games separately
- Whether my Atlanta override helped or hurt

The misses stay up.

Which call do you disagree with, and what am I missing?

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

I used to work at Robinhood.
Now I build NFL models for fun and test them in public.
This week's most interesting number: Houston by 3.1.
Most expect a comfortable Texans win. My model says Tennessee keeps it close.
All 13 Sunday forecasts in the reply. Results Monday.

Last week I said the model I've been working on was coming to life.

I like football. I like data. Apparently watching the games wasn't enough, so I gave myself homework.

Three games I'm watching:

★ TEXANS vs TITANS
Projected margin: Houston by 3.1
I have Houston winning, but this one's a lot tighter than the narrative around it. Tennessee hangs around.

★ PATRIOTS vs RAIDERS
Projected margin: New England by 6.8
The model likes the Patriots more than most. The depleted secondary is the biggest reason I'm cautious.

★ BROWNS vs JETS
Projected margin: Cleveland by 0.85
Basically a coin flip that leans Cleveland. Interesting enough to track, not enough to pretend it's certain.

These forecasts predate the latest injury updates. What I'm testing is how close the projected margins land. I'm not claiming the model is right.

Monday, I'll show what held up, what missed, and what needs more work. Everything stays visible.

Follow along for Sunday forecasts and Monday results.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

My prediction: The Cowboys miss the playoffs.

Bookmark this. Come back in January.

Who's to blame?

A) Dak
B) The defense
C) Schottenheimer
D) Jerry

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

CeeDee Lamb had 9 yards.

NINE.

Dallas ran for 50. Bucky Irving ran for 165 by himself.

The Cowboys lost at home to an 0-4 team starting an undrafted rookie QB.

Biggest fraud in the NFL. Change my mind. 🧵

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

Bucky Irving is a top-5 RB in the NFL.

Nobody outside Tampa will say it. I just did.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

CeeDee Lamb averages 2.09 yards per route against man. Against zone, 4.00.

If Bowles leans on zone with Winfield and Morrison out, he’s trading fewer isolated matchups for the coverage Lamb has been most productive against.

There’s a cost to that adjustment.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

We're witnessing the decay of society in real time.

[Wags 🐳 @wagsischasing]

If you’re not gambling every single day then you’re forever going to be stuck in the rat race.

Gambling is the ONLY way of making it out. Don’t let other people tell you otherwise.

You must take a GAMBLE on yourself to make it. It’s literally that simple.

[Logan Armstrong @ArmChairLogan]

Interesting to see how everyone on my feed got their balls kicked in by their retarded bets they got from these scamming idiots on X.

The model I've been working on is coming to life, and it performed relatively well this weekend (but missed on some things which cannot be accounted for).

Maybe I should start tweeting more about this...